Malta vs Greece Predictions

Malta vs Greece predictions, betting tips and match previews for their international friendly meeting. Malta and Greece meet on Tuesday evening for their final fixture of the 2023-24 season, after June friendly losses. Read on for our free predictions and betting tips.

Friendly | Jun 11, 2024 at 5pm UK at Markbygg Arena

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Malta vs Greece Predictions

Greece to Dominate in Final Season Fixture Against Malta

Malta and Greece face off in Austria for their final fixture of the 2023-24 season, following disappointing results in their recent friendlies. This match serves as a crucial preparatory test ahead of the upcoming UEFA Nations League campaign. Here, we delve into both teams’ forms, expected lineups, and strategic approaches, providing comprehensive analysis and informed predictions.

Current Form and Statistics

Malta’s Form

Malta has had a challenging campaign, having lost all eight fixtures in their European Championship qualifying group, scoring just two goals and conceding twenty. Their start to 2024 showed promise with draws against Slovakia and Belarus, but a heavy 7-1 defeat to the Czech Republic has highlighted their defensive vulnerabilities. Malta’s defence was breached multiple times due to errors and a lack of coordination, which remains a critical concern heading into this match.

Greece’s Form

Greece narrowly missed out on Euro 2024 qualification, losing in the playoffs. Their recent form includes a spirited but ultimately losing effort against Germany, where they showed resilience and attacking intent. Greece finished their qualification group behind France and the Netherlands but have demonstrated strong defensive capabilities, conceding only 0.8 goals per game on average and keeping five clean sheets.

Team News and Expected Lineups

Malta’s Expected Lineup

• Goalkeeper: Bonello
• Defence: J. Borg, Pepe, S. Borg
• Midfield: Muscat, J. Mbong, Pisani, Guillaumier, Teuma, Camenzuli
• Attack: Satariano

Michele Marcolini will be without several key players due to injuries and suspension. Joseph Mbong will serve a suspension following his red card against the Czech Republic, while injuries rule out Luke Montebello, Carlo Zammit-Lonardelli, and Yannick Yankam. Veteran defender Steve Borg is expected to captain the side, with Teddy Teuma and Ryan Camenzuli adding experience in midfield.

Greece’s Expected Lineup

• Goalkeeper: Tzolakis
• Defence: Rota, Mavropanos, Retsos, Kyriakopoulos
• Midfield: Bouchalakis, Kourbelis
• Attack: Masouras, Bakasetas, Limnios; Pavlidis

Interim coach Nikolaos Papadopoulos may field a more experimental lineup, giving opportunities to Panagiotis Retsos and Konstantinos Tzolakis after their solid performances from the bench. Vangelis Pavlidis could start upfront, replacing Fotis Ioannidis. Injuries have sidelined Kostas Tsimikas and George Baldock, with Lazaros Rota and Dimitris Giannoulis filling in at full-back positions.

Tactical Analysis

Malta’s Tactical Approach

Malta will likely adopt a defensive strategy, focusing on maintaining a compact shape and hitting Greece on the counter. Their average possession of 35.9% indicates a preference for soaking up pressure and relying on quick transitions. However, their defensive fragility, highlighted by conceding 2.5 goals per game, must be addressed. The midfield, led by Teuma and Guillaumier, will need to disrupt Greece’s rhythm and provide support to the backline.

Greece’s Tactical Approach

Greece are expected to dominate possession and look to control the midfield through Bouchalakis and Kourbelis. With an average of 53.2% possession and 14.1 shots per game, Greece will aim to apply sustained pressure on Malta’s defence. Their robust defensive record suggests they will be difficult to break down, with a strong emphasis on maintaining shape and exploiting set-pieces and counter-attacks.

Key Duels and Areas of Interest

Midfield Control

The battle in the midfield between Greece’s Bouchalakis and Malta’s Guillaumier will be crucial. Bouchalakis’ ability to dictate play and distribute the ball effectively will be pivotal in maintaining Greece’s attacking momentum. Guillaumier will need to provide defensive solidity and look to initiate counter-attacks.

Defensive Solidity

Steve Borg’s leadership in Malta’s defence against the attacking threat posed by Pavlidis and Masouras will be a key contest. Borg must marshal his defence effectively to withstand Greece’s pressure, while Pavlidis’ movement and finishing will test Malta’s backline.

Gameplay Predictions

Based on their recent performances, Greece are likely to dominate possession and create multiple scoring opportunities. Malta will aim to remain compact defensively and look to counter-attack. However, Greece’s disciplined defensive unit and superior technical ability should see them control the game.

Improvements and Criticisms

Malta

Malta need to improve their defensive organisation and reduce individual errors, which have cost them heavily in recent matches. Offensively, they must be more clinical with the few chances they create. Marcolini must instill greater confidence and tactical discipline in his players.

Greece

Greece have shown defensive solidity but need to convert more of their scoring opportunities. Their play can sometimes lack creativity in breaking down well-organised defences. Papadopoulos must ensure his team remains focused and maintains a high tempo throughout the match.

Managerial Analysis

Michele Marcolini

Marcolini has struggled to find consistency with Malta, primarily due to defensive lapses. His tactical approach needs refinement, especially in organising the defence and transitioning to attack. Marcolini’s ability to adapt and inspire his squad will be critical for Malta’s progress.

Nikolaos Papadopoulos

Papadopoulos, stepping in as interim manager, has shown promise but faces the challenge of maintaining Greece’s defensive strengths while improving their attacking efficiency. His tactical flexibility and ability to integrate new players will be crucial in the absence of key full-backs.

Betting Angles and Predictions

Best Bet: Greece to Win and Under 2.5 Goals

Given Greece’s strong defensive record and Malta’s struggles in front of goal, a Greek victory with under 2.5 goals seems a sound prediction. Greece’s recent matches have been low-scoring, with their disciplined defence likely to keep Malta at bay while securing a narrow win.

Correct Score Prediction: Malta 0-2 Greece

Considering Greece’s solid defensive record and Malta’s difficulties in scoring, a 2-0 win for Greece appears likely. Greece’s ability to control possession and create chances should see them score, while their defence is expected to prevent Malta from finding the net.

Goalscorer Prediction: Georgios Masouras to Score

Georgios Masouras, who recently scored against Germany, is a strong candidate to score. His form and positioning make him a constant threat, and he is likely to find the net against Malta’s vulnerable defence.

Corner Prediction: Greece to Have More Corners and Total Over 9 Corners

Greece’s attacking style is likely to result in more corners. With an average of 6.8 corners per game, they should dominate this aspect against Malta, who average just 1.9. A total of over 9 corners in the game is a reasonable expectation.

Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target Over 6.5 for Greece

Greece’s average of 4.9 shots on target per game suggests they will challenge Malta’s goalkeeper frequently. Given Malta’s defensive issues, Greece should comfortably exceed 6.5 shots on target, making this a compelling market.

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