Lecce vs Atalanta predictions, betting tips and match previews ahead of this Serie A clash. After midweek cup final heartbreak, Atalanta visit Lecce for a frantic season finale at Stadio Via del Mare on Saturday. Read on for our free Serie A betting tips and match preview.
Serie A | Gameweek 37 – May 18, 2024 at 5pm UK at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare
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Lecce vs Atalanta Predictions
Atalanta Seek to Secure European Spot Against Struggling Lecce
Key Stats
– Atalanta have scored 65 goals this season, showcasing their attacking dominance.
– Lecce have managed only six home goals in 2024, highlighting their offensive struggles.
– Gianluca Scamacca returns from suspension, bolstering Atalanta’s attacking options.
Atalanta BC, fresh off their Coppa Italia final heartbreak against Juventus, face a crucial match against Lecce at Stadio Via del Mare. As they balance their Serie A commitments with preparations for the Europa League final, the Bergamo club aims to secure fifth place and guarantee Champions League football next season. Meanwhile, Lecce are still battling for Serie A survival, needing points to ensure their safety in Italy’s top flight.
Expected Lineups
Lecce:
- Goalkeeper: Falcone
- Defenders: Gendrey, Baschirotto, Pongracic, Gallo
- Midfielders: Almqvist, Ramadani, Blin, Dorgu
- Forwards: Piccoli, Krstovic
Atalanta:
- Goalkeeper: Carnesecchi
- Defenders: Scalvini, Hien, Djimsiti
- Midfielders: Hateboer, Ederson, Pasalic, Ruggeri
- Forwards: Miranchuk, Lookman, Scamacca
With Gianluca Scamacca returning from suspension, Atalanta will look to him for attacking impetus, while Charles De Ketelaere and Ademola Lookman provide additional offensive threats. Lecce will hope Nikola Krstovic and Roberto Piccoli can find the net against their parent club.
Team Analysis
Atalanta: Atalanta have shown resilience and adaptability throughout the season, currently sitting in fifth place with a strong chance of securing Champions League qualification. Despite their Coppa Italia defeat, their form in Serie A has been impressive, particularly in the latter half of the season. With 65 goals scored in 35 matches, Atalanta’s offensive strength is evident. They average 1.9 goals per game and boast a solid defence, conceding only 39 goals. Key players like Teun Koopmeiners, who has netted 12 times, and Gianluca Scamacca with 10 goals, are crucial to their success.
Lecce: Lecce, on the other hand, have struggled to find consistency, particularly in front of goal. They have scored 32 goals in 36 matches, averaging 0.9 goals per game. Defensively, they have conceded 52 goals, highlighting vulnerabilities that Atalanta could exploit. Under new manager Luca Gotti, Lecce have shown some improvement, but they remain five points clear of the relegation zone and need to secure points to confirm their safety. Key players like Nikola Krstovic and Roberto Piccoli will be vital for their attacking output.
Key Matchups
Gianluca Scamacca vs Marin Pongracic: Scamacca’s return to the lineup adds significant firepower to Atalanta’s attack. Pongracic will need to be at his best to contain Scamacca’s physical presence and goal-scoring ability.
Ademola Lookman vs Valentin Gendrey: Lookman’s pace and dribbling skills will test Gendrey on the right flank. Gendrey must be vigilant and disciplined to prevent Lookman from creating scoring opportunities.
Gameplay Predictions
Atalanta are expected to dominate possession and apply consistent pressure on Lecce’s defence. Their ability to control the midfield and create chances through quick transitions and wide play will be crucial. Lecce, likely to adopt a counter-attacking approach, will rely on quick breaks and set-pieces to trouble Atalanta’s defence.
Strategic Insights
Atalanta:
- Strengths: Offensive depth, high goal-scoring capability, and strong defensive organisation.
- Weaknesses: Potential fatigue from recent matches, and the pressure of balancing league and European commitments.
Lecce:
- Strengths: Resilient defence, ability to counter-attack, and home advantage.
- Weaknesses: Lack of goal-scoring consistency, and defensive lapses under pressure.
Managerial Analysis: Gian Piero Gasperini has expertly managed Atalanta’s tactical flexibility and depth, but he faces a challenge in maintaining team morale and fitness after their cup final defeat. Luca Gotti has improved Lecce’s organisation and resilience but needs to address their scoring deficiencies to secure crucial points.
Expected Goals Analysis
Atalanta’s average of 1.9 goals per game underscores their attacking prowess, while Lecce’s 0.9 goals per game highlights their struggles in front of goal. Defensively, Atalanta concede 1.1 goals per game, whereas Lecce allow 1.4 goals per game. This suggests Atalanta are more likely to dominate and score, with Lecce struggling to breach a solid Atalanta defence.
Predictions
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals Given Lecce’s defensive approach and Atalanta’s potential rotation due to their congested schedule, this match is likely to see fewer goals. Lecce have struggled to score at home, managing just six goals in nine matches this year. Atalanta, while strong offensively, might be more conservative to avoid injuries and fatigue. Thus, betting on under 2.5 goals seems a prudent choice.
Correct Score Prediction: Atalanta to Win 2-0 Reflecting Atalanta’s superior firepower and Lecce’s attacking struggles, a 2-0 victory for the visitors is a plausible outcome. Atalanta’s defence has been solid, and Lecce’s difficulty in scoring goals at home supports this prediction.
Goalscorer Prediction: Gianluca Scamacca to Score Anytime Scamacca’s return to the lineup adds significant threat to Atalanta’s attack. Given Lecce’s defensive vulnerabilities and Scamacca’s ability to score, he is a strong candidate to find the net during the match.
Corners Prediction: Atalanta to Win More Corners; Total Corners Over 10.5 Atalanta’s attacking style typically results in numerous corners. They average 5.7 corners per game, and Lecce’s defensive play might lead to more corners for the visitors. Thus, predicting Atalanta to win more corners and the total exceeding 10.5 is justified.
Shot on Target Prediction: Ademola Lookman to Have 1 or More Shots on Target Lookman’s role in Atalanta’s attack ensures he will be actively involved in creating and taking chances. His dribbling ability and positioning make him likely to register at least one shot on target.
Yellow Card Prediction: Mario Pasalic to Receive a Yellow Card Pasalic’s combative nature in midfield, coupled with his defensive responsibilities, makes him a likely candidate for a yellow card. His involvement in breaking up play and disrupting Lecce’s counter-attacks will likely lead to cautions.
Assist Prediction: Charles De Ketelaere to Provide an Assist De Ketelaere’s creative influence in Atalanta’s midfield is crucial. His vision and passing ability make him a strong contender to provide an assist, especially given Lecce’s defensive frailties.
Innovative Market: Over 11.5 Corners Combining both teams’ attacking and defensive metrics, a high number of corners is expected. Atalanta’s average corners per game and Lecce’s defensive stance support the prediction of over 11.5 corners.
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