Genoa vs Bologna predictions, betting tips and match previews ahead of their Serie A. Seeking a third-placed Serie A finish, Bologna face mid-table Genoa at Luigi Ferraris on Friday evening in their final match. Read on for our match preview and free betting tips.
Serie A | Gameweek 38 – May 24, 2024 at 7.45pm UK at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
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Genoa vs Bologna Predictions
Bologna Aim to Secure Third Place in Serie A Finale Against Mid-Table Genoa
Key Stats
– Bologna have lost only one of their last 17 Serie A matches.
– Genoa have won their last two home matches.
– Albert Gudmundsson has scored 14 goals for Genoa this season.
As Bologna visit Luigi Ferraris on Friday evening, they aim to solidify a third-place finish in Serie A against a mid-table Genoa. Thiago Motta’s men are coming off a thrilling 3-3 draw with Juventus, while Genoa narrowly lost 1-0 to Roma. This match represents different stakes for each team; Bologna seek to secure their top-three position, while Genoa play for pride and a possible top-half finish.
Match Preview
Genoa entered the game against Roma already safe from relegation, and despite a strong fight, they were undone by Romelu Lukaku’s decisive header. This defeat left them in 11th place, with a possibility of dropping to 12th if Monza win their final match. Regardless, Genoa can look back on a successful season under Alberto Gilardino, who has steadied the ship and ensured a second consecutive campaign in Serie A.
Bologna, on the other hand, have experienced a stellar season, thanks largely to the astute management of Thiago Motta. Despite missing out on the Coppa Italia, they have secured a Champions League spot and now aim to finish third. The recent draw with Juventus, where they squandered a three-goal lead, highlighted both their attacking prowess and occasional defensive lapses. Motta’s potential move to Juventus has been a talking point, but his immediate focus remains on securing a strong finish for Bologna.
Team Analysis and Key Players
Genoa’s season has been anchored by key performances from Morten Frendrup in midfield and Albert Gudmundsson in attack. Gudmundsson, with 14 goals, has been their standout player, while Frendrup’s consistency has been vital. Defensively, Johan Vásquez and Kevin Strootman have provided stability, and the return of Junior Messias from injury could bolster their midfield options.
For Bologna, Joshua Zirkzee has been a revelation, although his participation in this match is doubtful due to a hamstring injury. Riccardo Calafiori, who scored twice against Juventus, will be crucial in defence, while Lewis Ferguson’s absence due to an ACL injury has been a significant blow. In attack, Jens Odgaard and Michel Ndoye will need to step up in Zirkzee’s potential absence.
Tactical Dynamics and Gameplay
Genoa are expected to adopt a balanced approach, leveraging their home advantage and aiming to counter Bologna’s attacking threats. They have a solid home record, having won their last two matches at Luigi Ferraris. Gilardino’s side will look to control the midfield and rely on the creative spark of Gudmundsson and the finishing ability of Mateo Retegui.
Bologna are likely to dominate possession, as they have done all season, with a high pass accuracy and strong ball retention. Their defensive record on the road is impressive, having conceded only 18 goals away from home. Motta’s tactics will involve pressing high and quick transitions to exploit Genoa’s defensive gaps. The midfield battle between Frendrup and Bologna’s Remo Freuler will be pivotal.
Managerial Analysis
Thiago Motta’s managerial acumen has been a key factor in Bologna’s success. His ability to adapt tactics and inspire his players has been commendable. However, the recent draw with Juventus exposed some defensive vulnerabilities that need addressing. On the other hand, Gilardino has done well to stabilise Genoa and ensure their mid-table finish. His focus will be on finishing the season on a high and setting a strong foundation for the next campaign.
Expected Lineups and Commentary
Genoa Possible Starting Lineup: Martinez; Vogliacco, Vasquez, De Winter; Spence, Strootman, Frendrup, Badelj, Martin; Gudmundsson, Retegui
Commentary: Genoa will likely rely on their strong defensive setup and the creativity of Gudmundsson and Frendrup in midfield. The return of Messias could add an extra dimension to their attack.
Bologna Possible Starting Lineup: Skorupski; Posch, Lucumi, Calafiori, Kristiansen; Aebischer, Freuler; Odgaard, Urbanski, Ndoye; Castro
Commentary: Bologna will aim to control possession and create scoring opportunities through their dynamic midfield. The absence of Zirkzee means more responsibility on the shoulders of Castro and Odgaard to deliver in attack.
Key Areas and Player Duels
The central midfield will be crucial, with Frendrup and Strootman battling against Freuler and Aebischer. The wing play will also be significant, particularly how Spence and Martin deal with Bologna’s full-backs. Gudmundsson’s duel with Calafiori will be pivotal in determining Genoa’s attacking success.
Expected Goals Averages
Bologna have averaged 1.5 goals per game, highlighting their offensive capabilities. Genoa, with an average of 1.2 goals per game, have shown they can score but often struggle against stronger defences. This contrast in attacking prowess will be a key factor in the match.
Potential Betting Angles
Considering Bologna’s strong defensive record and Genoa’s recent form, betting on under 1.5 goals and a narrow victory for Bologna seems reasonable. Additionally, with Bologna’s higher shot accuracy, betting on their total shots on target over 4.5 offers value.
Predictions
- Best Bet: Under 1.50 Goals Given both teams’ recent form and defensive solidity, a low-scoring game is anticipated. Bologna’s impressive away defensive record, combined with Genoa’s modest goal-scoring rate, suggests a tight contest with few goals.
- Correct Score: 1-0 to Bologna Following the rationale of a low-scoring game, a narrow 1-0 victory for Bologna seems likely. Their ability to keep clean sheets on the road and Genoa’s struggle to score against top teams support this prediction.
- Goalscorer Prediction: Albert Gudmundsson to Score Anytime Gudmundsson has been Genoa’s top scorer with 14 goals. His ability to find space and his finishing skills make him the most likely player to score, especially given Bologna’s occasional defensive lapses.
- Which Team Will Score First: Bologna Bologna are expected to dominate possession and create more scoring opportunities early in the match. Their offensive strength and Genoa’s defensive vulnerabilities suggest that Bologna will score first.
- Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target for Bologna Over 4.5 Bologna’s attacking statistics, including an average of 4.4 shots on target per game, indicate they will test Genoa’s defence frequently. Given Genoa’s defensive inconsistencies, this market is a promising option.
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