England vs Malta predictions for Friday’s Euro 2024 qualifying fixture. The Three Lions have already secure a place to Euro 2024 final’s in Germany but can secure top spot in their group with a win at Wembley. Can they defeat minnows’ Malta? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Match Live Friday, 17th November at 7:45 pm In:
England vs Malta Predictions
Clash of David and Goliath: England’s Tactical Dominance Meets Malta’s Defiant Stand
Key Stats
– Malta has conceded 18 goals in 7 matches, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities.
– Harry Kane leads England’s scoring chart with 7 goals, demonstrating his pivotal role in the team’s attack.
Overview of the Match
England’s journey in the Euro 2024 qualifying campaign has been nothing short of impressive, culminating in their final home game against Malta at Wembley. The Three Lions, led by Gareth Southgate, have not only demonstrated their dominance in Group C but also set their sights on the coveted top spot in the group-stage draw. This match against Malta, a team struggling to find its footing on the international stage, presents an interesting tactical canvas where we can dissect the strategies and potential outcomes.
Our Suggested Best Value Bet For This Match
BEST VALUE BET £20 Returns £66   Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change |
Best Value Bet Rationale
The rationale behind this prediction is multifaceted. Firstly, England’s offensive strategy, particularly against teams like Malta, often involves high ball possession and creating numerous scoring opportunities. Given Malta’s defensive struggles, having conceded 18 goals in their qualifying campaign, there will likely be ample space for England’s attacking midfielders to take shots.
Foden, despite a modest average of 0.4 shots per game in the qualifiers, is poised for a more significant impact against Malta. His versatility and skill in finding and creating space, coupled with England’s expected dominance in possession and attack, increases the likelihood of him taking more shots than usual.
Moreover, with key players absent, Foden is likely to assume a more central role in England’s attacking plays, further increasing his chances of attempting shots on goal.
Considering the boosted odds offered by Bet365, this bet not only presents value but also aligns well with the expected dynamics of the game. Foden’s enhanced role, coupled with Malta’s defensive frailties, makes this an attractive proposition for those seeking value in the betting markets.
England’s Strong Campaign and Tactical Analysis
The Three Lions’ campaign has been a blend of attacking prowess and defensive solidity. With an average BettingTips4You rating of 7.06, they have notched up 19 goals while conceding just three. Their attacking statistics are particularly impressive, with an average of 3.2 goals per game and a significant number of shots per game (12.5).
Their midfield and attacking transitions, led by players like Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka, have been clinical. However, England’s midfield will miss Jude Bellingham’s influence due to injury, a factor that might slightly alter their midfield dynamics.
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Malta’s Struggles and Key Players
Contrastingly, Malta’s campaign has been marred with difficulties. Ranked 47/53 with an average rating of 6.50, they’ve struggled both offensively and defensively. However, players like Paul Mbong and Matthew Guillaumier have shown sparks of brilliance. Their approach against England will likely be defensively oriented, focusing on damage limitation rather than expansive play.
England’s Expected Lineup and Strategy
Southgate’s lineup, despite several withdrawals, looks robust. The inclusion of fresh faces like Rico Lewis and Ezri Konsa could add a new dimension to England’s play. The team is expected to maintain high possession and employ a high press, exploiting Malta’s weaker ball retention capabilities.
Malta’s Approach and Potential Game Plan
Malta, under Michele Marcolini, might opt for a compact defensive structure, aiming to disrupt England’s rhythm. Their hope will rest on counter-attacks, utilising the pace of players like Kemar Reid and Jodi Jones.
Key Battles and Game-Changers
The match’s outcome could hinge on key battles in the midfield and the wings. England’s ability to break down a likely deep-lying Malta defence will be crucial. Players like Harry Kane and Phil Foden could be instrumental in unlocking Malta’s defence.
Tactical Dynamics and Managerial Decisions
England’s expected goals average and Malta’s lack of offensive output suggest a game dominated by England. The match might be decided in the midfield, with England’s control versus Malta’s attempt to disrupt. Southgate’s tactical acumen has been a strength, but his inability to adapt quickly in-game has drawn criticism. Marcolini’s strategy will likely be conservative, focusing on defensive organisation.
Opinionated Team and Managerial Analysis
England’s strength lies in their attacking versatility and depth. However, their over-reliance on set pieces and occasional defensive lapses could be exploited. Malta’s lack of attacking threat and weak defensive structure are their main weaknesses. Southgate’s pragmatic approach has been effective but lacks the boldness some critics desire. Marcolini’s defensive tactics, while necessary, are often too rigid, lacking creative offensive strategies.
Tactical Analysis: Deep Dive
Contrasting Strategies: England vs Malta
In the pulsating world of football, where strategies evolve and performances fluctuate, the upcoming Euro 2024 qualifier between England and Malta offers a fascinating study in contrasts. The Three Lions, under Gareth Southgate, have demonstrated a compelling blend of offensive and defensive strategies, while Malta, despite their struggles, have shown glimpses of resilience under Michele Marcolini’s management.
England’s Evolving Strategy and Offensive Power
England’s recent performances, particularly their commendable 3-1 victory over Italy, have been a testament to their evolving strategy. The team’s offensive prowess is undeniable, with a remarkable average of 3.2 goals per game in the qualifiers. This attacking force is spearheaded by Harry Kane, whose 7 goals in the campaign are a clear indication of his pivotal role. The team’s ability to create big chances, averaging 3.3 per game, owes much to the creativity and vision of players like Trent Alexander-Arnold and Phil Foden, both instrumental in transitioning from midfield to attack.
Defensive Discipline and Emerging Challenges for England
Defensively, England have been equally impressive, conceding just three goals in six games. This is no small feat and can be attributed to a disciplined backline marshalled by Harry Maguire and Kyle Walker. However, the absence of key defenders like John Stones and Luke Shaw due to injuries might pose a challenge. This scenario opens the door for players like Rico Lewis and Ezri Konsa, whose potential impact is eagerly anticipated.
Malta’s Underdog Strategy and Moments of Brilliance
Malta’s strategy, on the other hand, is starkly different, primarily due to their position as underdogs. They’ve struggled offensively, scoring a mere two goals in seven games. Their defensive woes are also apparent, with an alarming 18 goals conceded. Yet, in their brief moments of brilliance, like the early lead against Ukraine, players like Paul Mbong and Teddy Teuma have shown their capability to disrupt opponents. Malta’s strategy has been predominantly defensive, focusing on damage limitation, a necessity considering their ranking and recent form.
Managerial Influence: Southgate and Marcolini
The management styles of Southgate and Marcolini also play a crucial role in their teams’ performances. Southgate has been a proponent of tactical flexibility, often adapting his formation and style based on opponents and available personnel. His ability to instill a fighting spirit, evidenced in the comeback against Italy, speaks volumes of his impact. However, his conservative approach in crucial moments has been a subject of debate. Marcolini, facing limited resources, has focused on defensive organisation, a logical approach but one that has limited Malta’s offensive capabilities.
Expected Goals and Team Comparisons
In terms of expected goals, England stands far ahead, not just in numbers but in the quality of chances created. Malta’s expected goals are significantly lower, indicating their struggle in creating meaningful opportunities. Comparing the two teams, England’s superiority is evident in every aspect – tactics, player performances, and overall success. Players like Kane and Foden are in a different league compared to Malta’s best, such as Mbong and Teuma. However, football is a game of unpredictability, and Malta’s resilience could still pose interesting challenges.
Suggestions for Improvement and Tactical Analysis
Improvement suggestions for England include diversifying their attacking strategies and integrating younger players to cover defensive vulnerabilities. For Malta, the focus should be on improving their ball retention and creating more offensive opportunities. The pros of England’s strategy lie in their balanced attack and defence, while the cons include a tendency towards predictability and over-reliance on key players. Malta’s defensive focus is a necessity, but it severely limits their attacking play.
Predictions and Analysis
Both Teams to Score – No: England’s defensive record in the Euro 2024 qualifiers has been stellar, conceding just three goals in six matches. This solidity at the back, combined with Malta’s struggle to find the net (scoring only twice in seven games), makes it highly unlikely for both teams to score. England’s defensive discipline, especially in aerial duels where they have a 61.1% win rate, should nullify any limited offensive threats posed by Malta.
Correct Score Prediction – 3-0 to England: England’s attacking prowess, averaging 3.2 goals per game in the qualifiers, positions them to comfortably score multiple goals. Malta, on the other hand, has a high goals conceded per game average of 2.6, indicating their defensive frailties. England’s propensity to score predominantly from inside the box (16/59 goals) aligns with Malta’s vulnerability in this area, reinforcing the likelihood of a 3-0 result.
Goalscorer Prediction – Harry Kane: Harry Kane has been in formidable form, leading England’s scoring charts with seven goals. His ability to find space in the box and clinical finishing, coupled with Malta’s defensive lapses, positions him as a prime candidate to score. Kane’s track record of taking penalty kicks further enhances his chances of scoring in this match.
Corner Prediction – England More Corners, Total Over 8: England’s attacking approach is likely to force Malta into a defensive posture, resulting in corners. England averages four corners per game, while Malta, with their defensive approach, might concede more. The prediction of over 8 total corners is based on England’s aggressive attacking play and Malta’s likely defensive stance, leading to clearances and blocks.
Shot on Target Prediction – Phil Foden: Phil Foden’s agility and skill in creating shooting opportunities make him a strong contender for registering shots on target. Foden’s ability to navigate tight spaces and his inclination to take shots from the edge of the box could trouble Malta’s defence, which has a lower average of interceptions per game (10.6) compared to England’s offensive movements.
Yellow Card Prediction – Kalvin Phillips: Kalvin Phillips’ role in midfield, often involving breaking up opposition attacks, puts him at risk of receiving a yellow card. His aggressive tackling style and the need to control the midfield battles against Malta’s counter-attacking attempts could lead to cautions, considering his disciplinary record.
Assist Prediction – Trent Alexander-Arnold: Trent Alexander-Arnold’s exceptional crossing ability and his role in set pieces make him a likely candidate for an assist. His precision in delivering the ball into the box will be crucial against Malta’s packed defence. Alexander-Arnold’s average crossing accuracy (35.4%) and involvement in offensive plays enhance his chances of registering an assist.
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