Crystal Palace vs Manchester United predictions for this Premier League clash. Manchester United aim to reclaim sixth in the Premier League, facing a strong Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park on Monday evening. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Premier League | Gameweek 36 – May 6, 2024 at 8pm UK at Selhurst Park
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Crystal Palace vs Manchester United Predictions
Key Stats
– Defensive Discrepancies: Despite employing a 3-4-3 formation focused on solid defence, Crystal Palace has conceded 57 goals this season, illustrating a significant vulnerability in their defensive tactics.
– Midfield Mastery: Bruno Fernandes has been instrumental for Manchester United, directly contributing to 17 goals (10 goals, 7 assists) this season, highlighting his crucial role in United’s attacking dynamics.
– Shot Efficiency Concerns: Manchester United averages 14.7 shots per game but has an underwhelming conversion rate, with only 52 goals from these efforts, pointing to a need for more clinical finishing upfront.
Strategic Stalemate on the Cards: Crystal Palace vs Manchester United Tactical Analysis
As Manchester United aim to reclaim the sixth spot in the Premier League, they face a resilient Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park. Both teams have had a tumultuous season, but recent forms and tactical adaptabilities suggest an intriguing clash ahead.
Team Form and Lineups
Crystal Palace
Under Oliver Glasner’s guidance, Crystal Palace has found a rhythm, amassing 10 points from their last four matches, indicating a solid tactical setup and increased team morale. The expected lineup for Palace, consisting of Henderson; Clyne, Andersen, Richards; Munoz, Wharton, Hughes, Mitchell; Olise, Mateta, Eze, showcases a blend of youth and experience. This setup in a 3-4-3 formation suggests that Palace will focus on width and crosses into the box, leveraging Mateta’s aerial ability and Eze’s flair on the ball.
Manchester United
Manchester United’s fluctuating season has left them out of the Champions League contention, focusing now on securing a Europa League spot. Their proposed lineup of Onana; Wan-Bissaka, Casemiro, Maguire, Dalot; McTominay, Mainoo; Antony, Fernandes, Garnacho; Hojlund indicates a versatile 4-2-3-1 formation. The inclusion of Casemiro at centre-back may address defensive vulnerabilities but also limits midfield aggression, placing more creative responsibilities on Bruno Fernandes.
Key Tactical Battles
The game could be significantly influenced in the midfield area, where both teams’ formations will clash over control. Wharton and Hughes will have the task of disrupting United’s midfield duo of McTominay and Mainoo, while Fernandes’ creative prowess will be crucial in unlocking a sturdy Palace defence.
Gameplay Expectations
Given the formations and recent performances, expect Manchester United to dominate possession, trying to penetrate through the flanks and central movements of Fernandes and Hojlund. Palace will likely adopt a counter-attacking approach, exploiting the pace of Eze and Olise, and focusing on direct play to their forwards.
Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive
The Tactical Set-Up
Starting with Crystal Palace, Oliver Glasner’s influence since taking over has been palpable. Under his stewardship, Palace has adopted a robust and compact 3-4-3 formation that emphasises solid defensive structure coupled with quick transitions to attack. This approach has particularly revitalised Palace’s offensive play, with players like Eberechi Eze and Jean-Philippe Mateta becoming central figures.
Mateta, with his physical presence and clinical finishing (11 Premier League goals this season), and Eze, whose dribbling and creativity have been crucial, are the spearheads of Palace’s attack. However, despite these strengths, Palace’s game has its flaws. The team often relies too heavily on counterattacks and struggles to maintain possession and control games, which is evident from their average possession stats (41.8%).
Contrastingly, Manchester United, under Erik ten Hag, has been moulding into a side that focuses on ball possession and a high pressing game. Utilising a 4-2-3-1 alignment, Ten Hag encourages his players to maintain a high line, pushing opponents into their half and controlling the game through midfield dominance.
Bruno Fernandes is the lynchpin of this system, orchestrating play and linking with forwards like Alejandro Garnacho and Rasmus Højlund. Fernandes’ role has been crucial, as highlighted by his seven goals in recent appearances. Despite these tactical intentions, United’s execution has been marred by defensive inconsistencies and an inability to convert chances effectively, as reflected in their big chances missed per game (1.4) and goals conceded stats (51 in the Premier League).
Management Impact and Style of Play
The impact of management on both teams has been significant but contrasting. Glasner’s pragmatic approach at Palace is often seen as overly cautious and reactive, especially in games where they could potentially take more initiative. His defensive setup has led to fewer goals conceded but at the cost of attacking fluidity in several key matches.
On the other side, Ten Hag’s philosophy is clear, but this season has been turbulent with issues of injuries and adapting his intricate style to the Premier League. His insistence on technical proficiency and positional play has sometimes left United vulnerable at the back, particularly in transitions, a point of contention that has been widely criticised by pundits and fans alike.
Expected Goals and Offensive Output
In terms of expected goals (xG), both teams have shown disparity between their xG and actual goals scored, indicating inefficiencies. United’s approach has yielded more shots per game (14.7) compared to Palace’s 11.7, yet their goals per game only marginally exceed that of Palace (1.5 vs. 1.3). This underperformance relative to xG suggests that while United’s attacking movements create opportunities, the final execution is lacking.
Suggested Tactical Adjustments
For Crystal Palace, the suggestion would be to incorporate more dynamic movement in the midfield to support their forwards better, possibly by giving more creative freedom to Adam Wharton and integrating more overlapping runs from wing-backs like Nathaniel Clyne and Tyrick Mitchell.
Manchester United could benefit from stabilising their defensive structure, perhaps by deploying Casemiro more consistently in his natural holding midfield role rather than at centre-back, ensuring better coverage and reducing the likelihood of defensive breakdowns.
Critical Analysis of Managers
While Glasner has steadied the ship at Palace, his conservative approach in potentially winnable games deserves scrutiny. It’s a strategy that might secure mid-table obscurity but won’t harness the full potential of a squad brimming with talents like Eze and Olise.
Erik ten Hag, on the other hand, while ambitious, might be accused of over-complicating United’s play. His rigid adherence to a system that the players are still adapting to has cost United precious points, making their European aspirations more challenging.
Predictions
1. Best Bet: Crystal Palace/Draw Double Chance
This prediction capitalises on Manchester United’s struggles away from home coupled with Crystal Palace’s resurgence under Oliver Glasner.
Considering United’s mixed results on the road, where they have won only seven out of 17 matches and Crystal Palace’s solid form that includes a recent unbeaten streak at Selhurst Park, the double chance for Palace to either win or draw provides a safer betting angle. This approach not only reflects Palace’s capacity to confront top teams effectively but also considers United’s patchy performances, particularly in defence.
2. Correct Score: Crystal Palace 1-1 Manchester United
Aligning with the cautious approach of the best bet, predicting a 1-1 draw fits the narrative of both teams’ recent form and tactical setups.
United’s offensive capabilities balanced against their defensive vulnerabilities suggest they are likely to concede. On the other hand, Palace has consistently found the net in recent matches but may lack the firepower to secure a win. This scoreline reflects a balanced encounter, with both teams finding the back of the net but unable to clinch a victory.
3. Goalscorer: Bruno Fernandes to Score
Bruno Fernandes remains the focal point of Manchester United’s attack, especially in critical fixtures. His form, scoring seven goals in his recent appearances, underscores his importance.
In a match where midfield dominance will be crucial, Fernandes’ ability to arrive late in the box and his proficiency from set-pieces make him a prime candidate to score. Given Palace’s defensive inconsistencies, Fernandes’ knack for crucial goals makes this a compelling prediction.
4. Corner Prediction: More Corners by Manchester United; Total Corners Over 9
Manchester United’s playing style, which emphasises width and crossing, typically results in a high number of corners. This, combined with Crystal Palace’s tendency to absorb pressure and clear balls out of their defensive third, suggests United might win more corners. Additionally, the overall pace and attacking nature of both teams make it likely that the total corners in the match will exceed nine, making this a viable betting option.
5. Shot on Target: Bruno Fernandes to have 1+ Shots on Target
Bruno Fernandes is renowned for his shooting ability from midfield, both in open play and from direct free-kicks. His role in United’s setup ensures he is often in positions to test the goalkeeper. Given his current form and confidence, expecting Fernandes to register at least one shot on target during this game is a well-founded prediction.
6. Yellow Card: Jefferson Lerma to Receive a Yellow Card
Jefferson Lerma’s aggressive style in midfield is crucial for breaking up opposition plays but also results in frequent bookings. With eight yellow cards this season, he leads the tally for Crystal Palace. In a match that promises intense midfield duels, Lerma’s role will be pivotal, and his likelihood of committing a bookable offence is high, especially against a technically skilled Manchester United midfield.
7. Assist Prediction: Michael Olise to Register an Assist
Michael Olise has been instrumental in Crystal Palace’s attacking phases, contributing with key passes and crosses. His ability to deliver precise balls into the box, coupled with his role on set-pieces, positions him well to add to his assist tally. Facing a Manchester United side that has shown vulnerability at the back, Olise’s creative skills could be the key to unlocking the Red Devils’ defence, making him a strong candidate to record an assist in this matchup.
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