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Can Brentford’s home firepower and counter threat unsettle Thomas Frank’s Spurs on his return? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Brentford are scoring at a high rate at home, averaging over two goals per game at the Gtech Community Stadium. They face a Tottenham side that, while defensively vulnerable to errors and aerial duels, has scored in nearly all of their away fixtures this season. The tactical setup favors Tottenham's wingers against Brentford's wide defense, while Brentford’s counter-attacking strength should exploit Tottenham’s high line. Given the home side’s lack of clean sheets and the visitors' attacking efficiency on the road, both teams finding the net is the most statistically supported outcome.
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Brentford's home form is formidable, with six wins from nine and 20 goals scored in that period. Tottenham have struggled for consistency on the road recently, and their historical weakness against direct, aerial teams like Brentford could be their undoing. Igor Thiago’s 11-goal tally provides the Bees with the finishing power to take advantage of Spurs' tendency for individual errors. A 2-1 scoreline reflects Brentford’s home attacking potency while acknowledging Tottenham’s high probability of scoring at least once, given their average of 1.9 goals per away game.
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Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur Predictions and Best Bets
Brentford vs Tottenham — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below based on match analysis and provided statistics.
Exchange prices suggest a competitive London derby with the home side holding a slight edge.
Both teams have shown high offensive output, particularly at the Gtech Community Stadium.
- Home scoring heat: Brentford have scored 20 goals in their nine home league fixtures, and at least three goals have featured in all but one of their last five at the Gtech.
- Table-level parity in output: Brentford have 28 Premier League goals in 18 matches while Tottenham have 27 in 18, despite Brentford averaging 44.7% possession and Spurs 51.0%.
- Direct threat with a focal point: Igor Thiago has 11 league goals and averages 2.7 aerials won, supporting Brentford’s very strong counter-attacking profile and preference for long balls.
Offensive Output: Scoring Reliability
A comparison of Brentford’s efficiency at home versus Tottenham’s consistency on their travels.
The Bees average 2.22 goals per game in front of their own fans this season.
Spurs have been remarkably consistent, scoring in nearly every road trip at an average of 1.9 per game.
Attacking Intent: Shots per Match
Both sides maintain similar levels of offensive pressure throughout the 90 minutes.
Thomas Frank spending New Year’s Day in the away dugout at the Gtech Community Stadium is the kind of subplot football writers dream of – and the kind of emotional wrinkle players pretend they haven’t noticed. Tottenham Hotspur head to Brentford for a Premier League London derby reunion, with Frank facing an old club he only played a few weeks ago in North London.
That night ended comfortably for Spurs, who beat the Bees 2-0 on 6 December 2025. The rematch, though, comes with a different feel. Brentford have followed that defeat by picking up points and putting goals on the board, while Tottenham arrive carrying the label of Europa League winners and a recent 1-0 away win at Crystal Palace that ended a run of five away matches in all competitions without a victory.
There’s also a stylistic clash here that tends to make derbies less about pretty patterns and more about who handles the moments. Brentford are built for counter-attacks and they’ve been scoring heavily at home. Tottenham are described as aggressive, wide, and cross-heavy, but also vulnerable to individual errors. Put those together and you’ve got the ingredients for a game that can swing quickly – particularly if either side loses their shape for even 30 seconds.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Brentford’s possible starting XI reads like a 4-2-3-1: Kelleher; Kayode, Ajer, Collins, Hickey; Yarmoliuk, Janelt; Lewis-Potter, Damsgaard, Schade; Thiago. There’s a clear attacking focal point in Igor Thiago, who has 11 Premier League goals in the squad numbers shown. Around him, Kevin Schade brings both output and menace, with six league goals and a strong aerial profile for a wide forward, while Mikkel Damsgaard’s three assists hint at a supply line that isn’t purely about lumping it forward and hoping.
Still, Brentford’s broader identity points to something more direct. Their style includes long balls and attacking through the middle, and they’re described as playing in their own half. That suggests a plan where they’re comfortable letting Spurs have the ball in safer zones, then springing quickly when the press trigger lands – a loose touch, a pass into traffic, or a full-back caught too high.
Tottenham’s possible XI also looks like a 4-2-3-1: Vicario; Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Spence; Gray, Bentancur; Kudus, Bergvall, Kolo Muani; Richarlison. The headline here is Cristian Romero’s return to availability after suspension, a timely boost in a match where aerial duels and second balls are likely to be noisy. Spurs’ likely front four is fascinating too: Mohammed Kudus has five assists in the Premier League and brings a high-end creative edge, while Richarlison is the leading league scorer in this squad list with seven goals and three assists.
There’s also a moving part behind that line-up. Lucas Bergvall is flagged as a potential doubt after picking up an injury in the 1-0 win at Crystal Palace and is set to be assessed. The same section suggests João Palhinha as the likely replacement if Bergvall can’t play. That’s not just a name swap; it would shift the feel of Spurs’ midfield, potentially making them heavier on ball-winning and control rather than the lighter, more connective option.
How the Match Could Be Played
The starting shapes suggest symmetry, but the game-plan likely won’t be symmetrical at all.
Brentford’s strength list is basically a set of warning labels for anyone who turns over the ball in midfield: counter-attacks are rated very strong, finishing scoring chances is strong, and they’re strong in aerial duels. That profile fits neatly with a front line led by Thiago and supported by Schade and Lewis-Potter: win it, go forward early, and make the first shot count. Brentford’s issues – keeping possession, defending against long shots, and being very weak against attacks down the wings – imply they don’t want a slow, careful match where they have to defend wide overload after wide overload. They want the match stretched and messy in the right places.
Tottenham’s identity points the other way. They play with width, attempt crosses often, and are described as aggressive. The possible XI includes Porro and Spence as full-backs, plus Kudus and Kolo Muani operating behind Richarlison. That screams “wide entries, early deliveries, and second-phase pressure”. Spurs are also strong at attacking down the wings and finishing chances, which is exactly where Brentford’s weak spot lives. If Tottenham can pin Brentford’s full-backs and force their wide men to defend facing their own goal, the Bees may end up dragged into the kind of defensive work they least enjoy.
But there’s an obvious counter-punch. Tottenham’s weaknesses include being very weak at avoiding individual errors and very weak at defending against skilful players, while also being weak in aerial duels. Brentford can lean into that by making every Spurs touch feel like it’s under time pressure, and by turning the match into a duel-heavy contest. Their style includes long balls, and with Thiago’s all-round numbers – 2.1 shots per game and 2.7 aerials won – there’s a clear route to territory: go direct, win the first contact, then attack the second ball around the edge of Spurs’ box.
The midfield battle, then, becomes pivotal. Spurs list Archie Gray and Rodrigo Bentancur in the double pivot, while Brentford have Yarmoliuk and Janelt. Brentford’s approach can be to keep Spurs in front of them, invite that first pass into midfield, then pounce. Tottenham, by contrast, may try to move Brentford laterally with quick switches, get the ball wide early, and then hit crosses or cut-backs before Brentford can set their defensive block.
There’s also a tactical irony here: both sides are described as playing in their own half. That doesn’t mean they’ll sit off for 90 minutes, but it does suggest a match where neither team wants to be caught with both full-backs high and the midfield line broken. Spurs rotate their first eleven, Brentford are described as having a consistent first eleven, and that contrast can show up in game management moments: the tempo changes, the spells of calm, and the moments where one side decides to take a calculated risk.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Brentford’s Premier League numbers paint a team that can score without dominating the ball. They average 44.7% possession and 78.5% pass success, but they’ve scored 28 goals in 18 league matches. That measures output in a low-possession context – and it matters because it supports the idea that Brentford don’t need long spells to hurt you; they need the right spells.
Tottenham’s league profile is closer to “control with threat”: 51.0% possession and 82.2% pass success, with 27 goals in 18 matches. The shots per game numbers are similar too – Brentford 10.0, Tottenham 9.8 – which suggests the difference may not be volume, but the kind of chances created and the game states they’re taken in.
Recent home/away colour adds more bite. Brentford have won six of their nine home league games this season, and they’ve scored 20 goals in those nine fixtures. The note that at least three goals have been scored in all but one of their last five home league games underlines just how lively their matches at the Gtech have been. Tottenham, meanwhile, have five away league victories in nine this season, but that most recent 1-0 win at Crystal Palace ended a run of five away games in all competitions without a win. That’s a snapshot of two truths at once: Spurs can win away, but the away narrative has had bumps.
Individual numbers fit the tactical themes neatly. Thiago’s 11 league goals and Schade’s six show where Brentford’s finishing power sits, while Tottenham’s Richarlison has seven goals and three assists, and Kudus leads the assist chart with five. If Spurs do get the wide and crossing game going, those two are central to making it matter.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big moment is how Tottenham handle Brentford’s direct pressure. Brentford’s counter-attacks are rated very strong, and they’re strong at finishing chances. If Spurs lose the ball in a wide area with bodies ahead of it, the sprint back to shape becomes an emergency rather than a jog. That’s where Tottenham’s vulnerability to individual errors can become more than just a line on a scouting report – it can become a match-defining wobble.
The second is the wing battle. Brentford are rated very weak at defending against attacks down the wings, while Tottenham’s strengths include attacking down the wings and playing with width. If Spurs can repeatedly isolate a defender and get deliveries in early, the pressure can build in layers: first cross, then clearance, then recycled cross, then chaos.
Third: the aerial duel around Thiago. Brentford are strong in aerial duels, and Thiago’s own aerial numbers suggest he’s a genuine contest-winner. Tottenham, meanwhile, are listed as weak in aerial duels. That mismatch can show up in the most old-fashioned way possible: long ball, knockdown, shot.
Fourth: the midfield selection question if Bergvall can’t go. The note that João Palhinha could step in changes the tone of Spurs’ central unit. It could help them win more duels and protect against counters, but it could also alter their ability to connect quickly into the three behind Richarlison. In a derby, those small texture changes often decide whether you look calm or hurried.
What could go wrong with this read? The fixture itself has already shown Tottenham can control this match-up, winning 2-0 in early December. If Spurs repeat that level of discipline and keep Brentford’s transitions quiet, the home strengths may not bite. On the flip side, one early goal, one big deflection, or one high-profile mistake can blow up any clean tactical plan and turn the match into a completely different story.
Best Bet for Brentford vs Tottenham
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Both Teams to Score
Brentford have established the Gtech Community Stadium as one of the most productive venues in the Premier League for goal enthusiasts. In nine home fixtures this season, they have found the net 20 times, contributing to a record where at least three goals have been scored in all but one of their last five home league outings. This offensive efficiency is largely driven by Igor Thiago, who leads the squad with 11 league goals, and Kevin Schade, who adds a significant aerial threat. Brentford’s tactical identity involves direct play and counter-attacks, styles that specifically target opponents who leave space when transitioning—a known characteristic of the current Tottenham side.
Tottenham arrive with a clear attacking blueprint that exploits Brentford’s defensive vulnerabilities. They are noted for playing with significant width and a high volume of crosses, a strategy that aligns perfectly with the fact that Brentford are particularly weak at defending attacks from wide areas. With Richarlison leading the line and Mohammed Kudus providing creative service, Tottenham have the tools to unlock a Brentford defense that has managed only three clean sheets across 18 matches. Furthermore, Tottenham’s away record shows they have scored in 88% of their road trips this season, averaging 1.9 goals per game as guests.
The match-up creates a scenario where both sides’ strengths directly confront the other’s weaknesses. Brentford’s prowess in aerial duels and finishing chances will test a Tottenham backline described as weak in the air and prone to individual errors. Conversely, Tottenham’s aggressive wing play will put constant pressure on Brentford’s full-backs. Given that Brentford average 2.22 goals at home while Tottenham maintain a high scoring average away, the statistical and tactical evidence points toward both goalkeepers being beaten.
What could go wrong
While the stats suggest goals, a repeat of the tactical discipline shown in early December could stifle the game. Tottenham won that meeting 2-0 by successfully neutralizing Brentford’s transitions. If one team adopts a more conservative approach to secure a New Year’s result, or if key creative players like Lucas Bergvall are sidelined, the match could become a low-scoring tactical stalemate rather than the end-to-end affair suggested by home and away trends.
Correct score lean
Brentford 2-1 Tottenham
Brentford’s home dominance is the defining factor for a narrow victory. They have secured six wins from nine matches at the Gtech Community Stadium, scoring twice as many goals at home as they have on their travels. While Tottenham are prolific scorers away from home, their recent form on the road has been inconsistent, evidenced by a five-match winless run in all competitions that only recently ended at Crystal Palace. Brentford’s ability to capitalize on individual errors and their superior aerial profile—strengths that clash with Tottenham’s noted weaknesses—should allow them to outscore the visitors in a high-intensity derby.
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