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Can Benfica’s Pavlidis-led attack break Braga’s right-sided threat to reach the Taça da Liga final? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Bayern's attack is averaging nearly 4 goals per game, but they have conceded in recent matches against Mainz and Sporting. Köln have scored in 6 of 7 home games.
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This was the exact score when the sides met in the DFB-Pokal in October. It accounts for Bayern's dominance and Köln's ability to snag a goal.
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Benfica vs Braga Predictions and Best Bets
Benfica vs Braga — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Benfica enter as title holders with a strong home record in this tournament, while Braga seek revenge for last season’s exit.
With both teams averaging high goal counts, single-goal margins with both teams scoring are key pricing points.
Both sides prioritize territory in the opposition half, resulting in high shot volumes and frequent scoring events.
Pavlidis leads the line for Benfica with high shot volume, while Horta remains Braga’s primary creative and scoring outlet.
- Pavlidis as the headline act: Vangelis Pavlidis has 17 Liga Portugal goals and four assists, and he averages 3.1 shots per game as Benfica’s primary finishing outlet.
- Benfica’s league punch: Benfica have scored 36 goals in 17 Liga Portugal matches while taking 15.6 shots per game, so their chance creation and conversion arrive together.
- League Cup home pattern: Benfica have won their last three home League Cup games by 3+ goals and kept clean sheets in all three, yet over 2.5 goals landed each time.
Attacking Intent: Shots per Match
Both sides prioritize playing in the opposition half, resulting in high shot volumes per league game.
Benfica manufacture chances at scale, converting this volume into 36 goals over 17 matches.
Braga’s direct approach and focus on width results in consistent testing of the opposition goalkeeper.
Physical Edge: Aerial Duels Won
Success in the air is a key factor in defending crosses and controlling the penalty area.
Nicolás Otamendi’s physical presence provides a safety blanket against Braga’s frequent deliveries from the right wing.
The Greek forward’s high shot volume makes him the primary reference point in Benfica’s 4-2-3-1 set-up.
Benfica’s Taça da Liga title defence rolls on with a semi-final against Braga on Wednesday, and there’s no gentle way into a final here. These two have built a habit of meeting at this stage, and last season Benfica “cruised” past Braga on the way to lifting the League Cup. That history gives the night a sharp edge: Benfica know exactly what this tie can look like when it goes their way, while Braga get another crack at spoiling the party when the prize is a final.
There’s also a very recent reference point. Less than a fortnight ago, they played out a 2-2 draw in Liga Portugal at Braga, a game that had Benfica chasing from 2-1 down at the break. It’s the kind of result that leaves both sides believing: Benfica because they can recover ground in hostile spells, Braga because they can land punches against this opponent and make it messy.
Stylistically, the match sets up as a clash between two teams who both want to control territory with the ball, but who do it with different emphases. Benfica are built to dominate in the opposition half with short passing and through balls, while Braga lean into width and right-sided attacks, again with short passing and a desire to play in the opposition half. In other words: expect a semi-final played at a proper tempo, with both sides trying to win the same patches of grass and neither feeling obliged to sit politely behind the ball.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Benfica’s possible starting lineup is: Trubin; Dedic, T Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl; Rios, Aursnes; Sudakov, Barreiro, Prestianni; Pavlidis.
That’s a side that looks designed to run a 4-2-3-1 feel, with Richard Ríos and Fredrik Aursnes as the base, Heorhii Sudakov as the central creator, and Vangelis Pavlidis as the reference point up top. Benfica’s strengths line up neatly with that selection. They are very strong at finishing scoring chances and very strong at attacking down the wings, and a front four of Sudakov, Barreiro, Prestianni and Pavlidis gives them multiple ways to arrive in the box: a through ball into feet, a wide delivery, or a second-phase attack after sustained pressure.
There’s a sting in the tail, though, because the availability list throws up issues. Prestianni is listed as called up to a national team, and R. Ríos is listed with an unknown injury. Henrique Araújo is listed with a muscle injury, and A. Hartmann Bah is listed with a cruciate ligament tear. That matters because Benfica’s “possible” XI includes two names that are also flagged in the absence list, which immediately clouds how accurate that projected balance is.
Braga’s possible starting lineup is: Hornicek; Gomez, V Carvalho, Arrey-Mbi, Lelo; Gorby; Dorgeles, Moutinho, Horta; Zalazar, Navarro.
It reads like a team set to play with width and with a clear right-sided personality. Their style explicitly says they attack down the right, play with width, and control games in the opposition half. With Víctor Gómez and Ricardo Horta on that side of the pitch, Braga can naturally funnel attacks into their favourite lane, while Rodrigo Zalazar and Fran Navarro offer a direct threat closer to goal.
Braga’s weaknesses also come with a warning label. They’re very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances, weak at defending counter attacks, and weak at protecting the lead. That means Braga can play well for long stretches and still leave the door ajar if Benfica break their first press or find the space behind an advanced full-back.
How the Match Could Be Played
The first thing that jumps out is that both sides want to live high. Benfica’s style is about controlling the game in the opposition’s half, possession football, short passes, and frequent through balls. Braga’s style also wants control in the opposition half, with short passes, possession football, and width. So the match is likely to be defined by who can impose their rhythm first and who can force the other into defending deeper than they want.
Benfica’s most natural route to goal is a blend of wing play and central threading. Their strengths include creating chances using through balls and creating chances through individual skill, and Sudakov’s role in the likely XI makes that the obvious hub. If Braga step too high with Gorby isolated in front of the back line, Sudakov can receive between the lines and slide passes into Pavlidis early. If Braga stay compact centrally, Benfica can shift the ball wide and test the channels with Dedic and Dahl overlapping.
Pavlidis is the obvious focal point, and he isn’t shy. He has 17 goals and four assists in Liga Portugal, and he averages 3.1 shots per game. That means Benfica don’t need ten perfect moves to score; they need Pavlidis arriving in the right places often enough for the volume to do its work. It also means Braga’s centre-backs will spend the night making uncomfortable choices: step in to stop him receiving, or drop and protect the space behind.
Braga’s best moments are likely to come through their right side, because it’s written into their identity. They attack down the right and play with width, and the likely XI stacks that lane with Víctor Gómez behind and Horta advanced. The aim will be simple: work the ball out there, create a crossing angle, and ask Benfica’s back line to defend deliveries while retreating. That’s where Bright Arrey-Mbi and Vítor Carvalho matter, too: Braga can keep a solid base while their right side commits numbers.
The midfield contest is where the semi-final can flip. Benfica’s double pivot, if it is Ríos and Aursnes, is built to circulate and keep the team camped in the opposition half. Aursnes has three goals and two assists in the league, and he plays across the line, so he isn’t just a passer — he can arrive. Ríos, meanwhile, racks up defensive activity, and his discipline count shows the edge he brings. If Benfica win second balls in midfield, Braga will be forced into long defensive phases, and the match becomes a question of how long Braga can keep their structure intact without making the kind of individual error Benfica are waiting for.
And that’s the other layer: both sides carry a nasty contradiction. Benfica are very weak at avoiding individual errors. Braga are very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances. In a high-line, high-territory semi-final, those two weaknesses don’t just sit quietly in the corner — they get dragged into the spotlight. One sloppy pass out of the back, one mistimed step into midfield, and suddenly you’re defending a through ball with the crowd holding its breath.
Set pieces matter here, too, because both sides are strong at defending them, and Benfica are very strong in the air. Otamendi wins 4.8 aerial duels per game, and Benfica as a team are very strong in aerial duels. That means Braga can’t rely on cheap territory and hopeful balls as a safety blanket. If they go long too often, Benfica can eat it up, reset, and go again.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Benfica’s league profile is that of a side who create a lot and finish well. In Liga Portugal they’ve scored 36 goals in 17 matches, and they average 15.6 shots per game. That’s not a team waiting for miracles; it’s a team manufacturing chances at scale, then converting them.
Braga are no slouches going forward either. They’ve scored 31 goals in 17 league matches with 13.2 shots per game. Their finishing scoring chances is listed as strong, and both Zalazar and Horta have six league goals each. That means Benfica’s defenders aren’t just managing one threat; they’re dealing with multiple scorers who can strike from different zones.
Recent results also frame the mood. Benfica’s last six across the listed fixtures show five wins and a draw, with wins over Napoli, Moreirense, Farense, Famalicão and Estoril, plus that 2-2 draw at Braga. Braga’s last six show three wins, two draws and a defeat, including a 3-3 draw with Estrela da Amadora and the same 2-2 with Benfica. That means both sides arrive with goals in them, but also with matches where control has slipped and chaos has taken over.
There’s also a League Cup-specific trend that Benfica will like: they’ve won their last three home League Cup games by three or more goals, and they’ve kept a clean sheet in their last three home League Cup games. In the same breath, those matches also saw over 2.5 goals in each of the last three at home in this competition. That’s a very particular pattern: Benfica at home in this tournament can be ruthless, even when the game opens up.
Braga bring their own trendline into it: there have been over 2.5 goals in three of their latest League Cup matches. That fits with their strengths and weaknesses — they can score, but they can also concede chances and struggle to protect leads.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first swing moment is Benfica’s ability to get Sudakov on the ball in the pockets. If Braga’s midfield line gets stretched, Sudakov turns simple possession into through-ball danger, and Pavlidis’s shot volume means Benfica can turn one good spell into a flurry.
The second is Braga’s right-sided pattern. If Víctor Gómez and Horta can repeatedly create crossing angles, Braga can force Benfica into box defending and second-ball duels. That’s the sort of game state that keeps a semi-final alive, even when the opponent has more of the ball.
The third is the error factor, because it’s baked into both profiles. Benfica are very weak at avoiding individual errors. Braga are very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances. Put those together in a high-tempo match, and you get moments where a perfectly fine passage suddenly turns into a one-on-one or a scramble in the box. No warning. No gradual build. Just drama.
What could go wrong with this read? The line-up uncertainty can change everything. If key midfield names don’t feature, the whole rhythm of the match shifts: pressure becomes less coordinated, the ball turns over faster, and a tactical preview becomes a lesson in fine margins. And in a one-off semi-final, a single early goal can rip up the plan for both teams, turning careful control into frantic chasing.
Best Bet for Benfica vs Braga
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Benfica to win and both teams to score
Benfica enter this semifinal with a formidable historical record in the League Cup, having successfully defended their title and consistently dominated this specific competition. Their recent form is exceptional, securing five victories in their last six matches across all competitions, including a solid 2-0 win over Napoli and a ruthless 4-0 demolition of Moreirense. Their offensive efficiency is high, averaging over two goals per game in the league, and they possess a striker in Vangelis Pavlidis who is in devastating form with 17 league goals. Pavlidis averages over three shots per game, providing a constant threat that Braga’s defense, which is weak at stopping opponents from creating chances, will struggle to contain.
Furthermore, the match dynamics heavily favor a high-scoring affair. Both teams prioritize controlling the game in the opposition’s half and utilize short passing to break down defenses. This shared aggressive intent means the midfield will be a battleground of high turnovers and transition opportunities. Braga are particularly effective attacking down the right wing with Ricardo Horta and Víctor Gómez, and they have proven they can hurt Benfica, as evidenced by the 2-2 draw just a fortnight ago. Braga have scored 31 goals in 17 league matches and possess multiple scoring threats, including Horta and Rodrigo Zalazar, who both have six goals to their names.
While Benfica are the superior side and possess a significant advantage in aerial duels through Nicolás Otamendi—who wins nearly five per match—they are prone to individual errors. Braga’s ability to funnel attacks wide and deliver crosses into the box will test this vulnerability. Given that Benfica have won their last three home League Cup games while also seeing over 2.5 goals in those fixtures, the pattern points toward a victory for the holders in a game where Braga’s attacking quality ensures they also find the net.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk lies in the potential absence of key personnel due to injuries and international call-ups, which could disrupt Benfica’s midfield cohesion and defensive stability. If Richard Ríos is unavailable, Benfica lose a disciplined defensive presence, potentially allowing Braga’s creative hub of Zalazar and Horta more time on the ball. Additionally, in a high-stakes knockout match, both managers might adopt a more cautious tactical approach than their usual league styles, leading to a cagey affair that defies the recent high-scoring trend between these two clubs.
Correct score lean
2-1
A 2-1 victory for Benfica is the most logical outcome following the tactical profiles of both teams. Benfica’s offensive volume is superior, and their strength in the air through Otamendi provides a decisive edge in both boxes. However, Braga’s identity is built on attacking with width and they have scored in almost every recent meeting with the top sides. Given that Benfica have kept clean sheets in their last three home League Cup games but recently conceded twice against Braga in the league, a single goal for the visitors is a realistic expectation in a competitive semifinal.
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