Barcelona vs Manchester City Predictions

Barcelona vs Manchester City for this pre-season friendly tie. Barcelona’s preparations for the 2024-25 campaign begin on Tuesday evening with a glamour friendly against Premier League champions Manchester City. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips

Club Friendlies | Jul 31, 2024 at 12am UK at Camping World Stadium

Barcelona vs Manchester City Predictions

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Will Barcelona’s New Era Begin with a Victory Over Manchester City?

Barcelona’s preparations for their 2024-25 campaign are set to commence on Tuesday evening with a high-profile friendly against the Premier League champions, Manchester City. This encounter marks Barcelona’s first friendly of the summer, while Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City have already had two outings in the United States, albeit unsuccessful ones against Celtic and AC Milan.

Match Preview: Barcelona’s New Era Under Hansi Flick

Barcelona are entering a new chapter under the guidance of Hansi Flick. The German manager faces immediate pressure to deliver trophies, following a season where Barcelona finished second in La Liga and were ousted in the quarter-finals of both the Champions League and Copa del Rey. Their campaign concluded with a four-match winning streak, ensuring they finished above Girona. As part of their US tour, Barcelona are set to face Real Madrid and AC Milan, besides Manchester City.

Barcelona have made just one signing this summer, acquiring Pau Victor from Girona. However, there are expectations of more activity in the transfer market, with Athletic Bilbao’s Nico Williams being a prime target.

Manchester City’s Pre-Season Woes

Manchester City, meanwhile, have begun their preparations for the new season with losses to Celtic and AC Milan. Guardiola’s squad has not been at full strength, with several key players still unavailable due to international commitments. The Citizens will be looking to improve as they round off their US tour with matches against Barcelona and Chelsea, before facing Manchester United in the Community Shield.

City’s transfer activity has been limited to the acquisition of Savinho from Troyes, with the young Brazilian expected to play a significant role in the upcoming season.

Team News and Expected Lineups

Barcelona's squad for the US tour includes 31 players, though key figures like Pedri, Frenkie de Jong, Gavi, Ronald Araujo, and Ansu Fati are absent due to injury. However, Raphinha and Ilkay Gundogan will join the team on Monday, with Jules Kounde arriving on August 1. Flick is likely to field an experienced lineup against Manchester City, with Robert Lewandowski expected to lead the attack. New signing Pau Victor may also feature prominently.

Expected Barcelona starting lineup: Ter Stegen; J Araujo, I Martinez, Christensen, Fort; Romeu, Gundogan, Torre; Roque, Lewandowski, Victor

Manchester City, on the other hand, are without several regulars due to international duty, including Kyle Walker, Ruben Dias, John Stones, Nathan Ake, Manuel Akanji, Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, Rodri, and Jeremy Doku. Julian Alvarez is also absent, representing Argentina at the Olympics. Ederson is expected to start in goal, despite ongoing speculation about his future.

Expected Manchester City starting lineup: Ederson; Lewis, Simpson-Pusey, Doyle, Gvardiol; Kovacic, Perrone; Bobb, McAtee, Grealish; Haaland

Analysis of the Upcoming Clash

Tactical Battle and Key Duels

The match promises intriguing tactical battles, particularly in midfield where Gundogan, facing his former club, will be pivotal for Barcelona. His ability to control the tempo and link play will be crucial against a City side that thrives on midfield dominance. The duel between Barcelona's experienced backline, led by Christensen and Martinez, and City's prolific striker Erling Haaland will be another focal point. Haaland's form has been impressive, and he will be a constant threat to Barcelona's defence.

Gameplay Dynamics

Barcelona, under Flick, are likely to adopt a structured approach, focusing on maintaining possession and building play from the back. The inclusion of young talents like Pau Victor and Vitor Roque alongside Lewandowski suggests a blend of experience and youthful exuberance in their attack. Manchester City, despite their pre-season struggles, will rely on their high pressing and quick transitions. Jack Grealish, aiming to prove his worth after a disappointing season, will look to exploit spaces in Barcelona's defence.

Areas of Improvement for Both Teams

For Barcelona, the primary area of improvement lies in their defensive solidity. With key defenders absent, the onus is on the likes of Christensen and Martinez to step up. Additionally, integrating new signings and ensuring a cohesive attacking unit will be vital. Manchester City need to address their defensive frailties exposed in their pre-season losses. The absence of regular starters has highlighted their lack of depth in defence, and Guardiola will need to find a balance to prevent conceding goals.

Managerial Analysis and Critique

Hansi Flick's appointment brings a sense of optimism to Barcelona, but his tactical acumen will be under scrutiny. Flick's preference for high-intensity pressing and quick transitions could suit Barcelona's attacking prowess, but his ability to manage egos and expectations at a club of Barcelona's stature remains to be seen.

Pep Guardiola, on the other hand, is a seasoned campaigner with a proven track record. However, his occasional tactical overthinking, particularly in crucial matches, has been a point of criticism. City's defensive vulnerabilities in pre-season are a concern, and Guardiola's ability to plug those gaps will be critical.

Expected Goals Analysis

Barcelona's expected goals (xG) metrics from last season were promising, particularly in the latter stages of the campaign. With Lewandowski leading the line and creative midfielders like Gundogan and Torre, they are expected to generate numerous scoring opportunities. Manchester City's xG was consistently high last season, but their defensive lapses in pre-season suggest they could be vulnerable at the back, potentially leading to a high-scoring encounter.

Betting Angles and Predictions

Best Bet: Barcelona to Win and Both Teams to Score

The rationale behind this prediction hinges on the observable trends and current form of both sides. Barcelona, under the stewardship of Hansi Flick, have been focusing on honing their attacking prowess and maintaining a solid defence. Despite key absences, the likes of Robert Lewandowski and Ilkay Gundogan provide a robust attacking force that is likely to capitalise on any defensive lapses from Manchester City.

Conversely, Manchester City have exhibited defensive vulnerabilities in their pre-season matches, conceding a total of seven goals in their two outings. This suggests that while they possess an immense attacking threat, their defence is susceptible to breaches. Erling Haaland, who has scored in both of City’s pre-season fixtures, is a constant threat and is likely to find the net. This sets up a scenario where both teams score, but Barcelona's more balanced squad and home advantage tilt the scales in their favour.

Correct Score Prediction: Barcelona 3-2 Manchester City

Building upon the best bet, a 3-2 scoreline in favour of Barcelona appears plausible given the current dynamics. Manchester City’s pre-season form has been marked by high-scoring affairs, reflecting both their attacking potency and defensive frailties. Erling Haaland and Jack Grealish will spearhead City's efforts, but their backline, weakened by the absence of key defenders, is likely to struggle against Barcelona's forward line.

Robert Lewandowski, known for his clinical finishing, is expected to lead Barcelona's charge, supported by the creativity of Gundogan and the emerging talents of Vitor Roque and Pau Victor. This blend of experience and youthful exuberance should see Barcelona outscore their opponents in a thrilling encounter.

Goalscorer Prediction: Robert Lewandowski to Score

Robert Lewandowski remains a key figure in Barcelona’s attacking setup. His ability to find space in the box, coupled with his aerial prowess and clinical finishing, makes him a significant goal threat. Given Manchester City's defensive lapses in their pre-season matches, Lewandowski is well-placed to exploit any gaps. His experience and positioning sense enable him to capitalise on the slightest defensive errors, making him a strong candidate to score in this match.

Additionally, the support from creative midfielders like Gundogan and the dynamic runs from younger players will provide Lewandowski with ample opportunities to score. His track record speaks volumes, and he is likely to be on the scoresheet in this high-profile friendly.

Corner Prediction: Manchester City to Win More Corners

Manchester City's tactical approach under Pep Guardiola often revolves around extensive wing play and maintaining high possession in the attacking third. This strategy typically results in a higher number of corners, as their wingers and attacking midfielders frequently push towards the byline to deliver crosses into the box. In their pre-season games, despite their defensive shortcomings, City have managed to maintain this attacking style, leading to numerous corner opportunities.

Barcelona, while also adept at maintaining possession, are likely to adopt a slightly more balanced approach, potentially leading to fewer corner situations compared to City. Hence, City’s attacking emphasis, especially through wide areas, should see them win more corners than Barcelona in this encounter.

Innovative Market Prediction: Total Cards Over 3.5

Pre-season matches often see a mix of seasoned professionals and eager young talents looking to make an impression. This blend can lead to a high-intensity game, with players more likely to commit fouls as they vie for starting positions in the regular season. Given the competitive nature of this friendly and the physical style of both teams, it is reasonable to expect a higher number of fouls and, consequently, bookings.

Barcelona's new era under Hansi Flick might involve a more disciplined approach, but the inherent physicality and competitive edge in such matches usually result in more cards. With Manchester City's young players also eager to impress Guardiola, the likelihood of aggressive tackles and fouls increases, making over 3.5 total cards a strong prediction for this game.

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