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The Australian Open reaches the business end with a blockbuster fourth-round clash on Day 8. World number two Carlos Alcaraz continues his quest for a maiden Melbourne crown against the dangerous American, Tommy Paul. With quarter-final spots on the line, the stakes couldn’t be higher at Rod Laver Arena.
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Paul matches up well with Alcaraz on hard courts (2-2 H2H). Three of their five previous first sets on fast surfaces ended 7-6 or 7-5. Paul is fresh and serving at 69% on second serves, suggesting a tight opener before Alcaraz’s quality eventually tells.
Market Analysis: Why the First Set will be tight
The “First Set Score” market offers excellent value when two high-quality hard-court players meet. While Alcaraz is the heavy favorite to win the match, Tommy Paul has the tools to make the Spaniard work for every point, particularly early in the contest when energy levels are high.
Alcaraz enters this match having not dropped a set in the tournament, dispatching Moutet, Hanfmann, and Walton with relative ease. However, his match against Moutet highlighted that he can be dragged into physical exchanges. Paul, conversely, arrives fresher than any other player in the draw. His third-round opponent, Davidovich Fokina, retired while trailing 6-1, 6-1, meaning Paul has played significantly fewer minutes and preserved vital energy.
Tale of the Tape: Key Stats
| Metric | Carlos Alcaraz | Tommy Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Sets Dropped | 0 | 0 |
| Break Points Saved (Week 1) | High Efficiency | 100% (4/4) |
| 2nd Serve Win % | Solid | 69% (Best in Draw) |
| Head-to-Head (Hard Court) | 2 Wins | 2 Wins |
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Why back the 6-4 or 7-6 First Set?
The rationale for this selection lies in the historical competitiveness between these two on faster surfaces. Paul does not fear Alcaraz’s power; his ability to absorb pace and redirect the ball with his flat backhand makes him a difficult matchup for the Spaniard.
Looking at their previous meetings, the first set is almost always a battle of attrition:
- Wimbledon 2024: Paul won the first set 7-5.
- Cincinnati 2023: Alcaraz won the first set 7-6.
- Canada 2022: Paul won the first set 7-6.
Paul has been serving impeccably in Melbourne, saving all four break points faced in the first week and leading the men’s draw with a 69% win rate on second serve points. This serving solidity suggests he can hold deep into the first set. However, Alcaraz’s class usually rises in the crunch moments—he won 30 net points against Moutet and thrives under pressure.
With Alcaraz priced short for the match win, the value lies in a competitive opener. We are backing Alcaraz to edge a tight first set, either via a late break (6-4) or a tie-break (7-6), capitalizing on Paul’s resistance before potentially pulling away later in the match.
Australian Open FAQs
Where can I watch the Australian Open in the UK?
TNT Sports and Discovery+ hold the exclusive broadcasting rights for the UK. Every match is available to stream live on Discovery+, with linear coverage provided on TNT Sports channels.
Who is the favourite to win?
Jannik Sinner remains the marginal favourite at 4/5, with Carlos Alcaraz close behind at 15/8. Novak Djokovic is currently priced at 12/1 to secure an 11th title.
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