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The Australian Open moves into Day 4, and the draw is starting to heat up with established stars facing tricky tests against rising talents. Conditions in Melbourne have been faster than average this year, rewarding aggressive servers and those who can hold their nerve in tie-breaks. Our focus today lands on a fascinating clash in the women’s draw, alongside key men’s matchups involving Reilly Opelka and home favourite Jordan Thompson.
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Andreeva is playing with incredible intensity but showed vulnerability by dropping the first set to Donna Vekic in the previous round. Sakkari, while inconsistent, has the experience to challenge early and recently beat Osaka. We expect a tight battle where Andreeva’s superior fitness and movement eventually edges a three-set thriller.
Maria Sakkari vs Mirra Andreeva Analysis
Mirra Andreeva continues to be one of the most exciting prospects on the tour. The 18-year-old showed grit in the opening round, forced to come from a set down to eventually stamp her authority on Donna Vekic. While her court movement and high intensity are undeniable, her inexperience still leads to occasional lapses in concentration, which resulted in a dropped set in her opener.
Maria Sakkari stands in her way. The Greek star may not be the consistent force she was when ranked inside the world’s top three, but she remains a dangerous opponent. She demonstrated her ceiling at the recent United Cup, recording solid wins over Naomi Osaka and Emma Raducanu. Her straight-sets victory over Leolia Jeanjean in round one was a morale booster, and she has the power to disrupt Andreeva’s rhythm.
Looking at the match dynamics, Sakkari is priced well to take a set. She has the weaponry to punish short balls if Andreeva starts slowly again. However, in a long, physical contest, the younger player’s superior defense should prevail. A 2-1 win for Andreeva offers significant value compared to the short odds on a straight win.
Understanding Set Betting: This market requires us to predict the exact final score in sets. By backing Andreeva to win 2-1, we need Sakkari to win exactly one set, but Andreeva to ultimately win the match. This is often a great strategy when a favourite (Andreeva) faces a capable veteran (Sakkari) who can make things competitive but is unlikely to win outright.
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Reilly Opelka vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
This match presents a classic clash of styles. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is known for his durability, having survived five-set epics against the likes of Felix Auger-Aliassime at this venue previously. He faces Reilly Opelka, the American “ace machine” whose game revolves entirely around dominance on serve.
Davidovich Fokina will need patience. Breaks of serve against Opelka are incredibly rare, and the Spaniard must be mentally prepared for tie-breaks. However, Davidovich Fokina holds a 7-5 7-5 victory over Opelka on hard courts (in Atlanta), proving he can neutralize the American’s biggest weapon. He is the fitter athlete, and if he can extend the rallies, he should wear Opelka down.
Jordan Thompson vs Nuno Borges
Nuno Borges enters this match fresh off one of the shocks of the tournament, having ousted Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Portuguese player now faces home favourite Jordan Thompson, but the history books are firmly on Borges’ side.
Borges has a flawless record against Thompson, winning all three of their previous meetings without dropping a single set. This includes a straight-sets victory at this exact stage of the Australian Open last year (6-3 6-2 6-4). With the confidence of taking a set off Alcaraz earlier this year and his dominant H2H record, Borges looks poised to upset the home crowd.
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