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Accumulator tips for NFL Sunday: The regular season is in the rear-view mirror, and the intensity ratchets up a notch this Sunday as Super Wildcard Weekend continues.
Why this pick
"Defence wins championships," and the Texans possess the #1-ranked unit in the league. Riding a nine-game winning streak, they face a Steelers side with a patchy 10-7 record and recent poor losses. The talent gap and Houston's elite defensive consistency make them the clear choice over a fluctuating Pittsburgh team.
Why this pick
With major AFC rivals out of the picture, this playoffs feels tailormade for Josh Allen. Supported by the NFL’s best offensive line and leading rusher, the Bills have a clear path. Losing to Jacksonville would be a colossal shock given Buffalo’s superior talent and the favorable scenario Sean McDermott has built.
Why this pick
Philadelphia are imperious at home in the playoffs, winning all five games at Lincoln Financial Field under Nick Sirianni. They haven’t turned the ball over once in those games and have trailed for less than six minutes combined. Against an injury-hit 49ers, that home-field dominance should prove decisive.
Why this pick
The Patriots are averaging 28.8 points per game and have lost just once since Week Three. They face a Chargers team led by Justin Herbert, who has never won a playoff game and plays behind one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines. New England’s scoring power should comfortably cover the spread.
This Sunday four-fold backs the Houston Texans’ elite defence to stifle the Steelers, alongside the superior offensive quality of the Bills and Patriots. We complete the selections by trusting the Philadelphia Eagles’ historic home dominance against a depleted 49ers side.
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As the NFL playoffs continue into Sunday, the intensity of Super Wildcard Weekend reaches a fever pitch. The bracket has delivered a slate of games where momentum and structural quality look set to collide with pedigree and home-field reputation. From teams riding unstoppable winning streaks to franchises relying on historic dominance at their own stadiums, the narratives for Sunday are clear.
We have identified four key selections where the data points towards a distinct edge. By analysing the defensive rankings, recent winning runs, and specific home-field advantages, we have built a four-fold accumulator designed to capitalise on the clearest mismatches of the weekend.
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Today’s Experts NFL Accumulator Tip
Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Rationale The old adage stating that “defence wins championships” is often repeated for a reason, and in the postseason, a stout defensive unit is frequently the difference between advancing and going home. The Houston Texans arrive at this fixture boasting the #1-ranked defensive unit in the league, a formidable foundation that has underpinned a tremendous run of form. Houston have been unstoppable down the stretch, winning each of their last nine games to enter the playoffs with supreme confidence.
In contrast, the Pittsburgh Steelers enter the postseason with a 10-7 record that, while commendable on paper, hides a patchier reality. Mike Tomlin’s side possesses ability and the experience of a quarterback with a Super Bowl ring, but their recent form includes concerning performances, most notably a poor loss to the Cleveland Browns just a fortnight ago. While the Steelers have a shot, the disparity in overall talent appears to favour the visitors. When the pressure of the playoffs mounts, backing the team with the elite defence and the superior momentum is the logical play. The Texans’ consistency over the last two months suggests they have the quality to overcome Pittsburgh’s challenge.
Best Bet: Houston Texans to Win
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Rationale There is a strong case to be made for the Jacksonville Jaguars in this spot. They have been in imperious form, remaining unbeaten since early November, and they boast a top-five defence alongside a home record that rivals anyone in the league. Under normal circumstances, they would be a fashionable upset pick. However, the Buffalo Bills possess a trump card that is impossible to ignore: Josh Allen.
This season feels different for Buffalo. For half a decade they have been excellent but blocked by a stacked AFC quarterback roster. Now, with the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson absent from the picture, the path to the “promised land” has opened up. Allen is arguably the most talented quarterback on this side of the draw, and critically, he is supported by the NFL’s best offensive line and the league’s leading rusher. While Jacksonville have been superb down the stretch, Sean McDermott has built this Bills team specifically for this moment. Losing in the first round would be a colossal shock given the favourable landscape they now face.
Best Bet: Buffalo Bills to Win
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San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Rationale This fixture might have been the highlight of the weekend had the San Francisco 49ers arrived at full strength. Unfortunately, the reality is that the Niners are missing key personnel who are essential for thriving in the cauldron of postseason football. Their depleted roster faces the toughest task in the NFC: visiting a Philadelphia Eagles side that transforms into a juggernaut at Lincoln Financial Field.
The numbers surrounding Nick Sirianni’s Eagles at home in the playoffs are staggering. With Jalen Hurts under centre, Philadelphia have played five postseason games at ‘The Linc’ and won all five. Even more impressive is their control over those contests; they haven’t recorded a single turnover and have trailed for a combined total of less than six minutes across those five victories. In playoff football, home-field advantage is a massive factor, and no team maximises that advantage quite like Philadelphia. Facing a wounded 49ers team, the Eagles look primed to extend their dominance.
Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles to Win
Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots
Rationale The New England Patriots host the Los Angeles Chargers in a game that highlights two quarterbacks on very different trajectories. For New England, Drake Maye is in contention for the MVP award, leading an offence that has averaged 28.8 points per game—a figure bettered only by the Rams this season. The Patriots have been imperious recently, losing just one game since Week Three, and will be looking to make a serious statement on home soil.
Conversely, the Chargers are led by Justin Herbert, a talented passer who is yet to win a playoff game. Herbert’s task is made significantly harder by the fact that he is operating behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. That structural weakness is likely to be fatal against a Patriots team that can score heavily and control the clock. While Jim Harbaugh will have the Chargers motivated, the mismatch in the trenches and New England’s scoring power suggest the hosts will not only win but punish their opponents sufficiently to cover the handicap.
Best Bet: New England Patriots (-3.5 Handicap)
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