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The long build-up is finally over. After weeks of speculation and selection debate, Australia and England are ready to begin the 2025-26 Ashes series at Optus Stadium in Perth. The first ball is scheduled for 2.20am GMT on Friday, broadcast live on TNT Sports 1 for UK viewers willing to brave the early start. Over the next seven weeks these two old rivals will contest one of cricket’s most coveted prizes, and this opening Test feels especially significant for an England side who have not won a match in Australia for 15 attempts. Read on for the best bet for this event and the analysis in addition to the best betting offers to take full advantage of.
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Cricket betting tips: Australia v England opening Ashes Test predictions
Can England’s Aggressive Approach Unlock Australia’s Weakened Attack in the Perth Ashes Opener?
- Australia have won four of their five Test matches at Perth’s Optus Stadium.
- Nathan Lyon and Mitchell Starc have collected 55 wickets at the venue, compared with 31 for Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood.
- Joe Root’s highest score in 27 Test innings in Australia is 89.
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Joe Root is England’s most reliable technician in a top order built on attacking intent. On a lively yet improving Perth surface he is well placed to outscore stroke-makers around him, especially if early movement exposes their aggression. At 4/1, his class and responsibility look attractively priced for first-innings supremacy.
Perth is not just another venue on the rota. The stadium has quickly earned a reputation for pace and bounce, and both teams arrive knowing that the conditions here can dictate the entire tone of a series. Australia are still holders of the Ashes and have traditionally dominated on their own soil, yet they begin this campaign with a patched-up attack. Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood are missing from the first Test through injury, forcing a reshuffle that places extra responsibility on a core of familiar names and a couple of fresh faces.
England, by contrast, travel with a far more settled batting group than on many recent tours. Under Ben Stokes, they have embraced an aggressive approach designed to put pressure back on opposition bowlers from ball one. A brief, rain-affected white-ball trip to New Zealand and a warm-up against the England Lions is hardly the old-fashioned build-up that former greats would have demanded, and some Test legends have been quick to question their preparation. Yet the tourists appear comfortable with their methods and view this match as a genuine opportunity rather than a damage-limitation exercise.
Conditions, history and why Perth shapes the series
Much of the pre-match discussion centres on the nature of the Perth pitch. Last season, when India visited, the first day was chaotic: 17 wickets tumbled as both attacks exploited a lively surface that made batting extremely hazardous early on. Later in the game the same strip looked almost benign, with India piling up 487 for 6 in the third innings once the sun had baked the grass out of the surface. That contrast underlines how important the timing of favourable conditions can be in a five-day match.
Both sides would clearly like to bowl first if the pitch behaves similarly this time. England under Stokes have repeatedly shown a willingness to put opponents in on difficult surfaces, trusting their quicks to extract life with the new ball. Australia, too, would relish unleashing Mitchell Starc, Scott Boland and debutant Brendan Doggett at full pace if early moisture is present. Reports from Perth suggest that the groundstaff are preparing something akin to last year’s wicket, and if that proves accurate the opening session could be brutal for top-order batters on both sides.
The numbers from recent matches in Perth reinforce just how influential the attack-friendly conditions can be. In that India Test, the top scorers in the first innings were lower-order players – a 41 and a 26 from down the card – as pacers ran through the recognised batters. Starc’s contribution with the bat in that game, and his longer history of useful runs in Western Australia, highlight how runs from number eight or nine can become decisive when the new ball dominates. India’s 295-run victory in that match also serves as a reminder that a powerful visiting side can topple Australia here if they adapt quicker to the conditions.
Australia’s reshaped attack and batting balance
Australia still enter as slight favourites in the match odds, hovering around the 8-11 mark with England at roughly 6-4 and the draw a distant 12-1. Those prices acknowledge Australia’s strong overall record at Optus Stadium, where they have won four of five Tests, but the absence of Cummins and Hazlewood stops this from being the usual juggernaut attack. Steve Smith leads the side in Cummins’s place, and he will rely heavily on Starc and Nathan Lyon, who between them have collected 55 wickets at this venue. By comparison, Cummins and Hazlewood have managed 31 scalps here, so the hosts still retain a formidable core of home specialists.
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Boland’s inclusion offsets some of the disruption. His home Test bowling average of 12.63 is extraordinary, even allowing for a small sample size, and his method of relentless accuracy should remain effective in Perth. Doggett brings a different flavour: good pace, a late outswinger and the kind of skiddy trajectory that can exploit any uneven bounce. Michael Neser lurks as a versatile reserve option, capable of contributing with both bat and ball if required. Even without their injured spearheads, Australia are far from toothless.
With the bat, Australia rely on a blend of established names and newer entrants. Usman Khawaja and Jake Weatherald are expected to open, Marnus Labuschagne anchors number three, Smith bats at four, and Travis Head follows at five. Cameron Green slots in at six as an all-rounder, followed by wicketkeeper Alex Carey and a powerful lower order of Starc, Lyon, Boland and Doggett. Head’s record in Australia, including eight Test hundreds at home, and Labuschagne’s prolific returns at this ground in previous seasons underline how dangerous this top and middle order can be once set. However, there have been questions over the top three’s consistency over the last 18 months, and an ageing core means that some observers – including Stuart Broad, in typically mischievous fashion – have wondered whether this is the weakest Australian side since 2010.
England’s aggressive blueprint and runscoring dynamics
England’s predicted XI carries a distinctly modern feel. Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett set the tone at the top, with Ollie Pope at three and Joe Root at four. Harry Brook’s explosive strokeplay at five, followed by Stokes, Jamie Smith and Brydon Carse, provides a top eight full of attacking intent. The seam attack is then rounded out by Gus Atkinson, Jofra Archer and Mark Wood, while Shoaib Bashir is in contention if England want a frontline spinner instead of an all-pace battery.
The tourists’ philosophy is to score quickly and seize control of tempo, even in testing conditions. Crawley, for example, has previously demonstrated how his flowing drives and back-foot punching can thrive on true bounce, and he recently signed off a home summer with tall scores and flurries of boundaries. Duckett arrives after a strong year in which he has averaged comfortably above 60 in Test cricket, and he warmed up with 92 from 97 balls against the Lions. Pope has also enjoyed success in the build-up, making a century in the tour match, which adds to England’s confidence in their top three.
Brook offers a particularly interesting profile for Perth. His Test career already contains a remarkable cluster of sizeable contributions, with match runs in the 2023 Ashes often falling between the 50 and 90 mark and a recent 135 in a New Zealand one-day international reinforcing his ability to dominate attacks abroad. His six-hitting is even more striking: he has cleared the ropes 31 times in 19 away Test innings compared with 16 in 31 efforts at home, suggesting that fast, bouncy pitches do not faze him.
Smith, meanwhile, is already a prolific boundary hitter in the longer format, having struck 26 sixes in his first 25 innings. His counter-attacking potential from number seven is vital if early wickets expose the middle order. Carse, slated to bat at eight, has shown in previous encounters with a strong India attack that he possesses both temperament and technique, compiling scores in the 30s, 40s and 50s with clean ball-striking. When lower-order runs are at a premium, his presence could echo Starc’s importance for Australia.
Behind this, the pace trio of Atkinson, Archer and Wood looks tailor-made for Perth’s steep bounce. Archer has already marked his return to Test cricket with nine wickets in two games against India earlier in the year, while Wood brings raw pace and hostility if fully fit. Atkinson offers another rapid option, and between them England have enough speed to mirror India’s template of relentless short and full-pitched assault from last season. If England decide to omit Bashir and use Root’s part-time spin to cover that discipline, it will be a deliberate gamble in favour of maximum pace. Root’s 14 overs for 1-117 against the Lions underline that he has recently had a meaningful bowl, which keeps that option viable.
All of this helps explain why England have been backed with enthusiasm in the match market, shortening from around 31/20 and 29/20 as Cummins and Hazlewood’s absences were confirmed. Yet, given the uncertainty around the exact nature of the pitch and the profound impact of which side receives the best batting conditions, it is perfectly reasonable to look beyond the outright result for stronger value. The pattern of last year’s Test – early carnage followed by easier scoring later – points towards individual batting markets, where prices may better reflect role and game scenario.
Best Bet
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Joe Root Clear England Top Run Scorer (1st Innings) at 4/1
Root occupies a pivotal position in this England line-up, both literally and figuratively. Batting at four, he is perfectly placed to benefit from the structural features of this particular match. Ahead of him, Crawley, Duckett and Pope are likely to attack from the outset, attempting to impose England’s ultra-positive approach despite the risk of substantial movement with the new ball. Their method can be highly effective on truer surfaces, but on a pitch that may misbehave during the first session the probability of early edges and miscued drives naturally rises. Root, by contrast, blends attacking options with a more classical technique that is well suited to adaptation.
The conditions profile strengthens his claims further. If England bat first in challenging early light, Root’s judgement outside off stump and ability to absorb pressure should give him a better chance than some teammates of surviving the most volatile period. Conversely, if England bowl first and return to the crease later on a drier surface – similar to the third innings that allowed India to reach 487 for 6 last season – he could enjoy the best of the batting conditions. In both scenarios his role as the side’s senior specialist batter, with 27 previous Test innings in Australia under his belt, becomes central. His highest score in the country is 89, underlining that he has often got in without quite converting; a flatter later period in this match could be the ideal opportunity to correct that pattern.
Market dynamics also favour Root at 4/1. Other England batters have captured headlines more recently: Crawley’s big summer scores, Duckett’s lofty average this year, and Brook’s spectacular strike-rate all help to compress their prices. Yet each of those players is simultaneously more likely to take on high-risk options early, especially against a new ball propelled by Starc or Doggett and supported by Boland’s relentless accuracy and Lyon’s threat if he appears before the interval. Root, meanwhile, typically builds his innings in layers, accumulating rather than exploding, which is exactly what this Test may demand.
Add in the fact that he is heavily involved as a secondary spinner – having already bowled 14 overs in the warm-up and secured a wicket – and we can be confident that he is fully engaged with the tempo and rhythm of the tour. That kind of involvement often translates into sharper batting focus. With England’s philosophy almost inviting volatility around him, Root’s combination of responsibility, experience and technical quality makes him an excellent candidate to top their first-innings scoring at the current 4/1 quote.
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