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Can Jake Paul shake up the heavyweight world when Anthony Joshua returns in Miami?
Friday night in Miami has the feel of a modern boxing crossover moment, with Jake Paul stepping into an eight-round heavyweight fight against two-time heavyweight world champion Anthony Joshua at the Kaseya Center. Read on for the best bet for this event and the analysis in addition to the best betting offers to take full advantage of.
Boxing betting tips: Anthony Joshua vs Jake Paul Predictions
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Joshua’s size, reach and knockout-heavy record point towards a finish, yet a 14-month lay-off leaves room for a steadier start. Targeting rounds 3–4 leans into the expectation of a stoppage without demanding an instant blowout, while still respecting Paul’s activity and ambition. It’s a view, not a promise, stake carefully.
- Anthony Joshua record: 28–4 (25 KOs)
- Jake Paul record: 12–1 (7 KOs)
- Ringwalk expected around: 03:30 UK time (Saturday, 20 December)
Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and example odds (not live prices).
Pricing makes Joshua the standout favourite, with Paul the outsider and a draw priced as a long shot in the three-way result market.
The bout is scheduled for eight three-minute rounds at heavyweight. These round-range prices show how the market shapes the likely finishing window.
These prices frame a fight where a finish is strongly expected, with the “go the distance” outcome priced as the less likely scenario.
With eight rounds scheduled at heavyweight, these method prices highlight the most common “finish” routes versus a points outcome.
It’s the kind of billing that invites noise from every angle — the celebrity gravity, the streaming-era gloss, the questions about what “elite” really means in 2025 — but the essentials are simple enough: a bigger, proven heavyweight with a punishing stoppage record is back after time away, and he’s been paired with an opponent whose rise has been as much about attention as it has been about taking boxing seriously.
The schedule gives the night a proper fight-week rhythm. The first bout on the card is expected to begin at 21:45 on Friday, 19 December, with the main card set for 01:00 GMT on Saturday, 20 December. The ringwalk for Paul v Joshua is pencilled in for around 03:30 UK time, potentially later depending on how the earlier fights play out.
Physical Profile: Height & Reach
The listed measurements underline a clear size and range advantage on paper, which often shapes who gets to start — and finish — exchanges on their terms.
Paul gives away both height and reach: 76 inches versus 82.
At 82 inches of reach, Joshua has the longer frame to work behind at heavyweight.
Power & Ring Time: Knockouts and Career Rounds
One side brings a deeper well of heavyweight experience, while both have built reputations around finishing ability — a key theme for an eight-round main event.
Paul’s record reads 12–1 with seven knockouts, across 70 career rounds.
Joshua’s 28 wins include 25 stoppages, and his ring time stretches to 167 career rounds.
For UK viewers following along, BBC coverage is set to build through the evening too, with iPlayer undercard action beginning from 17:30 GMT before BBC Three coverage and live text commentary begins from 19:30. Netflix are broadcasting the fight worldwide, with Paul again at the centre of their boxing push, while Joshua’s return lands after what’s framed as a year out of action.
There’s a full undercard to give the night shape. Alycia Baumgardner meets Lela Beaudoin for the WBA, IBF and WBO super-featherweight world titles. Anderson Silva faces Tyron Woodley at cruiserweight. Jahmal Harvey fights Kevin Cervantes at featherweight. Earlier, Cherneka Johnson takes on Amanda Galle for the undisputed bantamweight title, Caroline Dubois defends the WBC lightweight world title against Camila Panatta, and Yokasta Valle fights Yadira Bustillos for the WBC strawweight world title. It’s a busy bill, and it matters because main-event timing is always a moving target once the gloves are on and the stories start unfolding.
One more detail sets the tone: despite concerns about safety, this is a professional fight, sanctioned by the Florida Athletic Commission. The bout is scheduled for eight three-minute rounds at heavyweight, with 10oz gloves. There’s also a reported weight stipulation at the weigh-in: Joshua cannot weigh more than 17st 7lb (111kg). All of that frames the contest as something closer to a conventional pro assignment than a novelty exhibition — which, in turn, sharpens the questions it raises.
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For nights like this, clarity matters. The card is stacked with names and belts, and there’s always a temptation to spray opinions across everything — a little take on every bout, a prediction for every possible scenario. We don’t do that here. The stance is simple: we publish one primary pick per event to keep things clear and accountable.
That doesn’t mean pretending boxing is predictable. It isn’t. A fight can turn on a single lapse, a clash of heads, a cut, a referee’s interpretation, or a moment of over-confidence. It also doesn’t mean ignoring context. Joshua’s profile is what it is: a 36-year-old with 28 wins, 25 of them by knockout, and four defeats; a long history of world title fights; and a résumé that includes Oleksandr Usyk twice, plus Joseph Parker, Wladimir Klitschko, Alexander Povetkin, Dillian Whyte and Andy Ruiz Jr. He last fought in September 2024, losing by knockout to Daniel Dubois, and his last-fight weight is listed as 252 pounds.
Paul’s numbers are what they are too: 12 wins, one loss, seven KOs, and a career that began in 2018 before he turned pro in 2020. He’s 28, he’s fought twice in the last 14 months, and he comes in off a unanimous decision win over Julio Cesar Chavez Jr in June 2025. He’s also had a run of headline opponents, including Anderson Silva and Tyron Woodley, and he’s framed his own confidence loudly in the build-up.
Those facts don’t settle the debate on their own — but they do give you a clean foundation: experience and pedigree on one side, activity and momentum on the other, and a sizeable physical gap in the middle.
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Anthony Joshua to win in rounds 3–4
If you strip away the cultural baggage and just look at how this contest is built, the logic of an early-to-mid stoppage window is hard to avoid. Joshua isn’t being asked to go 12 rounds here; he’s booked for eight, and that alone shifts the psychology. Eight rounds encourages urgency. It gives less space for a slow burn, less time for a fighter to “download information”, and fewer chances for a less-experienced opponent to settle into something that looks like comfort. It also reduces the pathways to a decision for the man who typically ends nights inside the distance: Joshua has 25 knockouts in 28 wins, and that’s not a footnote — it’s the central feature of his boxing identity.
The physical numbers matter because they influence what’s available tactically. Joshua is listed at 6ft 6in with an 82-inch reach; Paul at 6ft 1in with a 76-inch reach. Over eight rounds, that gap can become a grind. It can turn a fight into a series of uncomfortable resets for the shorter man: step in, try to work, take a touch on the way out, and do it again with the clock always moving. Joshua’s orthodox stance, paired with that reach, gives him the tools to dictate where exchanges begin, and heavyweight fights tend to punish small mistakes disproportionately.
The “rounds 3–4” angle is a nod to two competing truths that sit side by side. The first is the expectation around the matchup: Joshua is described as a huge favourite and widely expected to stop Paul within a few rounds, and the talk from Eddie Hearn is bluntly framed around Joshua knocking Paul out quickly. The second is that Joshua’s recent timeline offers a reason not to demand an instant finish. He hasn’t fought since September 2024, and returning after 14 months can produce a measured first couple of rounds — not because the fighter is timid, but because timing, range and rhythm are living things. They’re re-found, not switched on.
Rounds 3–4 sits in the middle of that. It gives Joshua space to settle into his jab, read Paul’s entries, and start tightening the screws once the patterns appear. It also respects the possibility that Paul’s recent activity helps him look sharp early, even if that sharpness is being tested at a level of pressure and experience he’s not faced in a heavyweight ring against a two-time world champion.
What could go wrong? Heavyweight fights are volatile, and that cuts both ways. Joshua’s long lay-off could show up as hesitancy, making the early rounds more cagey than expected and pushing any stoppage later than the target window. Paul has also shown he can go rounds — he’s coming off an eight-round decision win in June 2025 — and if he stays defensively disciplined, the fight could drift into deeper water than many expect. There’s also the ever-present wildcard of a single mistake: an over-committed attack, a mistimed step, or an exchange that lands clean for the underdog. That’s the nature of the weight class, and it’s why any bet should be approached with restraint.
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