Tennis Betting Tips: Rome Masters semi-finals predictions, preview and best bets

Today’s ATP Rome Masters action sees world number one Jannik Sinner facing off against the 12th-ranked Tommy Paul in what promises to be an intriguing semi-final clash. Read on to find the best tips and predictions in addition to the latest betting offers.

Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters semi-finals Predictions

Can Jannik Sinner Continue His Dominant Run in Rome?

• Sinner has not dropped a set in his last six matches, including a 6-0, 6-1 demolition of Casper Ruud.
• Paul has a 1-3 record against top-10 players this season, with his only win coming outside of the clay surface.
• Sinner leads the head-to-head series 3-1, having won their most recent clay encounter in three sets.

Our Tips

Scheduled to start not before 19:30 BST, this match will determine who moves on to face either Carlos Alcaraz or Lorenzo Musetti in the final. Sinner comes into this contest in imperious form, having breezed through his quarter-final against two-time French Open finalist Casper Ruud, dropping just one game in a commanding 6-0, 6-1 victory. Remarkably, this was only Sinner’s fourth match back after a three-month suspension, making his sharpness all the more impressive.

Paul, on the other hand, reached this stage by overcoming Hubert Hurkacz in straight sets, a significant but less emphatic win considering Hurkacz’s physical struggles following recent surgery. Paul’s 2025 record stands at 21-7, including an 8-2 run on clay, but he has historically struggled against top-tier opponents, holding a 3-6 record against top-10 players on this surface. The head-to-head between Sinner and Paul also leans in the Italian’s favour, with Sinner leading 3-1, including a recent straight-sets win at the US Open.

With Sinner’s ruthless return to the tour and Paul’s patchier recent form, the Italian clearly enters this clash as the overwhelming favourite. However, Paul’s past success against top-5 players and his familiarity with the conditions in Rome could still make this an interesting contest.

Best Bet for the Day

Jannik Sinner to Win 1st Set 6-3 or 6-4

Rationale

Backing Sinner to win the first set 6-3 or 6-4 is a sensible choice, primarily due to his current form and the respective strengths and weaknesses of these two players on clay. Sinner’s devastating performance against Ruud in the quarter-finals, where he dropped just a single game, signals that he has fully shaken off any rust from his recent absence. Despite this being his first tournament back, Sinner’s aggressive baseline play and powerful groundstrokes have shown no signs of inconsistency, making him a formidable force right from the first serve.

Moreover, while Paul managed to overcome a physically compromised Hurkacz, his vulnerability on serve remains a concern. In his recent quarter-final, Paul faced eight break points and was broken three times, despite the less-than-stellar form of his opponent. Sinner, by contrast, has not dropped a set in Rome and has demonstrated an unshakeable focus from the outset of each match, as evidenced by his first-set dominance over Ruud.

Historically, their encounters on slower surfaces have favoured Sinner, including their last clay meeting in Madrid where Paul managed to take only one set. Given Sinner’s 25-match winning streak and his remarkable ability to control rallies, it seems highly likely that he will seize control early in this match, making a 6-3 or 6-4 first set scoreline a strong possibility.

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