Tennis Betting Tips: Miami Open round one predictions, preview and best bets

The Miami Open is one of the standout events on the ATP Tour calendar, forming a crucial part of the so-called ‘Sunshine Double’ alongside Indian Wells. Read on to find the best tips and predictions in addition to the latest betting offers.

Tennis betting tips: Miami Open Day 1 matches Predictions

Can Sabalenka Start Strong in Miami and Overcome Her Past Struggles?

• Sabalenka has hit 65 aces in 2025, while Tomova has only managed eight.
• Tomova has struggled with double faults this season, committing 38 already.
• Sabalenka has won 18 of her last 19 opening matches at WTA events.

Our Tips

The Miami Open continues with another action-packed day, as top-ranked players begin their campaigns in Florida. The tournament is now in full swing, with competitors looking to make their mark on the fast but humid courts at the Hard Rock Stadium. Among those stepping onto the court for the first time in this year’s event is Aryna Sabalenka, the second seed and one of the tournament’s main contenders.

Sabalenka begins her journey against Viktoriya Tomova, who has already battled through the opening round with a three-set victory over Caty McNally. The Bulgarian displayed resilience in that match, particularly in the decider, but now faces a completely different challenge against one of the hardest hitters in the women’s game. The contrast in styles will be a key theme in this contest, with Sabalenka’s aggressive power game set to be tested against Tomova’s more controlled approach.

The Belarusian arrives in Miami following a frustrating loss in the Indian Wells final to Mirra Andreeva, where she was unable to maintain her strong start. However, that run marked a return to form after early exits in her previous two tournaments. For Sabalenka, Miami represents an opportunity to put those inconsistencies behind her and rediscover the dominant performances that have seen her claim multiple Grand Slam titles. That said, history is not entirely on her side, as she has never progressed beyond the quarter-finals in Miami, falling in the third round on three occasions.

Tomova, meanwhile, is aiming to reach the third round of a WTA 1000 event for the first time. Her clean performance against McNally—where she avoided double faults and took her chances on break points—was an encouraging sign. However, her lack of firepower compared to Sabalenka remains a concern. Given that she has only served eight aces this season and holds a first-serve win percentage of 61.8%, she may struggle to handle the heavy hitting that will come her way in this encounter.

Best Bet: Sabalenka to Win in Two Sets

Sabalenka looks well positioned to secure a comfortable straight-sets victory in this match, as her game should prove too powerful for Tomova to handle. While she suffered a disappointing defeat in the Indian Wells final, she demonstrated throughout the tournament why she remains one of the most dangerous players on tour. Her ability to dictate rallies with her powerful forehand and aggressive return game makes her a nightmare for opponents who lack the weapons to counterpunch effectively.

Statistically, Sabalenka’s serve is not always the most consistent, with a first-serve percentage of 64.5% this season. However, her ability to produce aces—65 so far in 2025—suggests that she will have enough firepower to control her service games. In contrast, Tomova’s serve is significantly weaker, and with only eight aces all year, she is unlikely to win many free points. More concerning for the Bulgarian is her 38 double faults in 2025, which could prove costly against a returner of Sabalenka’s calibre.

Tomova’s ability to convert break points has also been an issue, as she has only capitalised on 36.3% of her opportunities this season. Against a player like Sabalenka, who thrives on taking control of matches early, missing break chances will be punished. Additionally, the last time Sabalenka lost an opening-round match at a WTA event was earlier this season in Qatar, which is her only defeat in 19 first-round matches.

Given these factors, Sabalenka should have little trouble overpowering Tomova, whose return game is unlikely to cause many problems. With a clear edge in firepower, experience, and big-match temperament, the world number two should take care of business in straight sets.

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