Tennis Betting Tips: Madrid Open round two predictions, preview and best bets

Saturday at the Mutua Madrid Open offers up a diverse mix of match-ups, as the tournament moves into the Round of 64. The red clay of the Spanish capital continues to test players’ adaptability and mental resolve, and with the stakes growing higher by the day, spectators can expect closely contested battles. Read on to find the best tips and predictions in addition to the latest betting offers.

Tennis betting tips: Madrid Open round two Predictions

Can Court Craft Overcome Firepower on Madrid Clay?

• De Minaur has only converted 76 break points from 138 on clay in the last 12 months, a conversion rate of 55.1%.
• Sonego has won a higher percentage of service games on clay (79.6%) than De Minaur (75.3%) despite a lower overall win rate.
• Despite winning 19 matches in 2025, De Minaur averages just 3.2 aces per match, compared to Sonego’s 6.7.

Our Tips

The day’s card includes a selection of encounters where stylistic contrasts promise high entertainment value, especially for those analysing performance nuances and betting potential.

With several players still adjusting to the surface or seeking rhythm after earlier exits in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, others come in with a head of steam from impressive early rounds. Amidst a schedule brimming with intensity and flair, one match in particular offers an intriguing clash of approach and mindset – as Alex de Minaur squares off against Lorenzo Sonego. De Minaur’s increasingly refined clay game will be pitted against Sonego’s aggressive intent and raw hitting power, a stylistic divergence that could make this encounter one of the most tactical and absorbing of the day.

As fans tune in via the Tennis Channel or streaming platforms like Fubo, the Madrid clay is set to provide yet another dramatic backdrop where endurance, guile, and control take precedence over brute force.

Best Bet for Saturday’s Action

Lorenzo Sonego +4.5 to win vs Alex de Minaur

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Why This Prediction Holds Value

Backing Lorenzo Sonego with a +4.5 handicap in his upcoming contest against Alex de Minaur may defy some expectations, but upon deeper examination, it represents sound betting logic. Although De Minaur has demonstrated his prowess on clay this season with a commendable 11-5 record, his wins, albeit frequent, have often been methodical rather than explosive. In fact, his overall clay game is rooted more in consistency and control rather than unrelenting dominance.

Sonego, on the other hand, brings an element of unpredictability. While his 4-7 clay record over the last year might seem underwhelming, it masks performances where he’s managed to dictate terms for stretches of play, particularly behind a serve that has delivered 6.7 aces per match – more than double De Minaur’s average of 3.2. Additionally, Sonego’s service win percentage on clay stands at a solid 79.6%, outperforming De Minaur’s 75.3%, which suggests that the Italian could hold serve frequently enough to stay within range.

Despite De Minaur’s head-to-head advantage and a 76.5% implied win probability, this matchup appears less one-sided when accounting for in-play dynamics. Sonego has proven capable of creating bursts of pressure, and although he converts break points at a lower clip (40% compared to De Minaur’s 55.1%), his potential to win short patches convincingly means he can cover the spread, even in a losing effort. Moreover, De Minaur’s recent performances, including a straight-sets defeat to Alcaraz in Barcelona, underscore that he remains susceptible to disruption when faced with persistent aggression and attacking serves.

In short, the +4.5 handicap gives Sonego a generous margin that he’s statistically and stylistically equipped to make the most of.rival in Alcaraz, and on this form, could be ready to translate his recent resurgence into a maiden Masters 1000 title.

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