Thursday brings a pivotal day in the calendar of the Mutua Madrid Open, as the tournament transitions into its quarter-final phase. The intensity escalates with the stakes rising for those left standing, and today’s line-up promises drama and high-level clashes as players inch closer to silverware in the Spanish capital. Read on to find the best tips and predictions in addition to the latest betting offers.
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Tennis betting tips: Madrid Open quarter-finals Predictions
Can Arnaldi Turn the Tide Against Rising Favourite Draper?
- Arnaldi saved 6 of 7 break points in his win over Tiafoe while converting 60% of his own chances.
- Draper broke Tommy Paul four times and didn’t face a single break point in that match.
- Arnaldi is ranked 74th in first-serve percentage across all surfaces, suggesting vulnerability Draper may exploit.
Our Tips
Matteo Arnaldi +3.5 to Win | |
1/1 - odds when tipped |  |
Reasoning Matteo Arnaldi has shown composure and firepower on Madrid’s quicker clay, dispatching Djokovic and Tiafoe convincingly. While Draper is in form, Arnaldi’s strong return game and ability to hold under pressure make the +3.5 handicap an attractive play in what should be a closely contested quarter-final. | |
Among the most anticipated showdowns is the encounter between Jack Draper and Matteo Arnaldi. This battle encapsulates the spirit of the competition so far: a mix of youth, power, and unpredictability. Draper, having progressed confidently through the draw, now finds himself on the cusp of entering the ATP top five. His recent performances, most notably a clinical dismantling of Tommy Paul, have solidified his position as the man to beat. A win today would not only propel him into the semi-finals but also mark a historic personal milestone.
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Arnaldi, however, arrives at this stage with compelling credentials of his own. Having already stunned Novak Djokovic and dispatched both Damir Dzumhur and Frances Tiafoe in straight sets, the Italian brings momentum and an aggressive baseline game that has proved effective on Madrid’s faster-than-average clay. Yet, while Arnaldi’s results signal form, questions remain about his ability to handle Draper’s relentless power and tactical sharpness.
Across the day’s slate, the quarter-finals provide a rich mix of stylistic contrasts and emerging narratives. The clay may be red, but the paths to the final are anything but straightforward. Every point matters now, and each rally could be decisive in shaping the tournament’s final act.
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Best Bet for Thursday: Matteo Arnaldi +3.5 to Win vs Jack Draper
In a tightly poised encounter, the recommendation is to back Matteo Arnaldi +3.5 games on the handicap against Jack Draper.
Despite Draper’s imposing recent form and superior ranking, this quarter-final is unlikely to be a foregone conclusion. Arnaldi’s progression in Madrid has been anything but passive, with his straight-sets victories over Djokovic and Tiafoe underscoring both his mental resilience and technical versatility. Against Tiafoe, Arnaldi showed impressive nerve-saving ability, fending off six of seven break points and converting three of his own five opportunities. This hints at a player capable of staying competitive, even under pressure.
While Draper’s performance against Paul – in which he denied the American even a single break chance – was dominant, it’s important to note the contextual advantage Draper had against Berrettini, who retired injured. Arnaldi, by contrast, has earned every point through rigorous play, turning around poor recent form into sustained momentum. Draper’s effectiveness has largely stemmed from his left-handed serve and weighty groundstrokes, but Arnaldi’s comfort on clay and capacity to counter-punch from deep positions could neutralise some of those weapons.
Arnaldi might not be favoured to win outright, but with a +3.5 game cushion, he presents excellent value. His ability to stay close on serve and create pockets of pressure means that even in defeat, he is likely to keep the scoreline within reach.
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