Tennis Betting Tips: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula predictions, preview and best bets for Women’s US Open semi-final on Thursday September 4

Thursday’s order of play in Flushing Meadows pivots around the first women’s semi-final, where Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula renew a rivalry that has repeatedly tilted one way this season. The defending champion arrives as the fresher athlete after Marketa Vondrousova’s unfortunate withdrawal removed a potentially testing quarter-final, creating a small but meaningful scheduling advantage for the world No. 1. Pegula step into the night session riding a sequence of straight-sets wins that has carried the American into back-to-back semi-finals at her home Slam, a marker of steadiness and clarity of game-plan over the past fortnight.

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Tennis betting tips: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Women’s US Open Semi Final Predictions for Thursday September 4

A primetime New York semi-final sets the stage for a power-packed evening

• Sabalenka lead Pegula 7-2, with the last three meetings won in straight sets
• The world No. 1 have dropped sets: none in New York and conceded only two breaks
• Pegula have beaten Sherif, Blinkova, Azarenka, Li and Krejcikova without losing a set

Our Tips

Sabalenka’s path has been clean and controlled, a procession of straight-sets victories built on first-strike authority against Rebeka Masarova, Polina Kudermetova, Leylah Fernandez and Cristina Bucsa before the walkover. The top seed’s rhythm has looked intact, with the winners column outnumbering unforced errors and just two concessions of serve across her matches, a tidy profile for hard courts. Pegula, meanwhile, has been similarly economical, dispatching Mayar Sherif, Anna Blinkova, Victoria Azarenka, Ann Li and Barbora Krejcikova without dropping a set, adding a notable quarter-final triumph over the Czech to reinforce her confidence.

History between them adds extra intrigue. Sabalenka have prevailed in seven of the last eight meetings, including recent finals at Cincinnati, the US Open and Miami, and most contests have concluded inside two sets. Even so, Pegula’s campaign in New York has been streamlined and assured, and there is no sign of physical wear. Everything points to a high-tempo encounter where early momentum, depth on return, and discipline behind the first ball shape the direction of travel.

Best Bet for the day

Here at bettingtips4you we only provide a single prediction rather than many different ones, as we believe in quality and not quantity and only give out the best tip per event. This will also make it easier for readers that don’t have to worry about what selection to go for and also it is more accountable as we can easily evaluate our tips profitability as we only give out a clear best bet per event: Aryna Sabalenka To Win 1st Set 6-1 Or 6-2 at 11/4.

The reasoning rests on three interlocking pillars: freshness, tempo, and precedent. The walkover against Vondrousova granted Sabalenka an extra day to reset physically and mentally, an edge that often materialises most clearly in the opening exchanges. Across New York, the top seed have protected serve with authority, limiting opponents to scarce looks—only two breaks conceded—and keeping the balance of winners over errors in positive territory. That profile enables front-running; when the first-strike patterns land, scoreboards can race. Pegula have been excellent, but her route has contained only one seeded opponent since round one, and the quarter-final win over Krejcikova, while impressive, presents a different problem set to the one Sabalenka bring: depth through the middle, heavy pace off both wings, and an appetite to crush short replies.

Their head-to-head compounds the angle. Sabalenka lead 7-2 and have secured the last three meetings in straight sets, with many of their duels resolved without extended scoreline entanglements. Although Pegula have consistently stretched game counts, the Belarusian’s starts in finals and marquee matches against this opponent have been notably sharp. Add the psychological clarity of recent title-match wins in Cincinnati, New York and Miami against the same rival, and the probability of a lopsided early set grows. At 11/4, the specific margin—6-1 or 6-2—captures Sabalenka’s capacity to compress games through superior first-serve weight, immediate baseline pressure, and brisk consolidation when she breaks first.

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