Herrin Kendrick offers top bets, insights, and a full preview for Euro 2024 specials markets. The focus of this article is to highlight the most intriguing bets of the tournament, and come up with the best two Euro 2024 specials tips: a main bet and a long shot one. Don’t forget to maximise your betting returns by using the carefully selected offers listed below.
Euro 2024 Specials Predictions
Euro 2024 Special Bets: Uncovering the Top Predictions
Key Stats
– Portugal’s Firepower: Portugal scored a staggering 36 goals in the qualifiers, the highest of any team.
– Clean Sheet Leaders: Portugal maintained a remarkable 90% clean sheet record during the qualifiers, conceding only three goals.
– Assist Machine: Bruno Fernandes led the assist charts in qualification with eight assists and an impressive average of 0.86 assists per 90 minutes.
Defining Special Bets
After several days of combing through bookmakers’ Euro 2024 specials, I am finally able to give you a definition for these markets. Special bets encompass a variety of unusual combinations, including total goals, corners, cards, player-specific achievements like scoring with a header or from outside the box, or even fouls committed throughout the tournament.
They might also predict a team to win the competition alongside the Player of the Tournament or Golden Boot winner. The challenge lies in navigating through these myriad options to find value, which is precisely what I have committed to do in this article.
Goal Predictions and Analysis
Total Goals in Recent Euros
Since the increase to 51 games per tournament, the total goals scored were as follows:
- Euro 2020: 142 goals (2.78 per game)
- Euro 2016: 108 goals (2.12 per game)
Current Odds on Total Goals
Bookmakers, at the moment of writing, offer the following odds for total goals in Euro 2024:
- William Hill: Over 135 goals at 5/6
- Betfred: Over 140 goals at 7/4
Portugal’s Goal Scoring Potential
Portugal stands out as a strong candidate to finish as the highest-scoring team. They scored 36 goals in the qualifiers, outpacing every other nation. Their squad, led by Cristiano Ronaldo and featuring Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Rafael Leao, and Diogo Jota, showcases immense attacking depth.
Portugal’s group, which includes Georgia (ranked 75th), Turkey, and Czechia, is favourable. Assuming they top their group, they would likely face a third-placed team in the round of 16 and avoid the stronger sides like England, France, and Belgium until the later stages.
Potential Low Scorers: Poland
Since the first European Championship in 1960, only four teams have failed to score a single goal: Yugoslavia (1972), Turkey (1996), Denmark (2000), and Ukraine (2016). Poland, might join this list as a team with no goalscorer.
In the qualifiers, Poland scored three goals in four matches against Czechia (ranked 36th) and Albania (ranked 66th). In their play-off final against Wales, Poland didn’t register a shot on target, and the game ended goalless after 120 minutes. In Group D with France, the Netherlands, and Austria, Poland might struggle to score, leaving an ageing Robert Lewandowski isolated in attack.
Betting on Cards
Yellow Card Predictions
The last two tournaments (2016 and 2020) featured 51 games each. Here’s the yellow card data:
- Euro 2000: 3.93 yellow cards per game (122 total)
- Euro 2004: 5.03 yellow cards per game (156 total)
- Euro 2008: 3.90 yellow cards per game (121 total)
- Euro 2012: 3.97 yellow cards per game (123 total)
- Euro 2016: 4.02 yellow cards per game (205 total)
- Euro 2020: 2.96 yellow cards per game (151 total)
Given these statistics, the odds for total yellow cards at Euro 2024 are at the moment of writing:
- Betfred: 182 or fewer yellows at 15/8
- William Hill: Over 187.5 yellows at 5/6
Impact of New UEFA Policies
UEFA’s new initiative will limit interactions with referees to team captains only. This change might increase the number of cards handed out early in the tournament, as players adjust to the new rules.
Player Assist Predictions
Historical Assist Data
In recent tournaments, four assists have typically been enough to top the charts:
- Euro 2020: Steven Zuber (4 assists)
- Euro 2016: Aaron Ramsey, Eden Hazard (4 assists each)
- Euro 2012: David Silva, Steven Gerrard, Mesut Ozil (3 assists each)
- Euro 2008: Cristiano Ronaldo, Cesc Fabregas, Wesley Sneijder, Hamit Altıntop (3 assists each)
- Euro 2004: Arjen Robben, Karel Poborsky (3 assists each)
- Euro 2000: Ljubinko Drulovic (4 assists)
Potential Top Assists
Andy Robertson could be a long shot for the most assists at 200/1. The left-back recorded three assists in six qualification matches, averaging 0.55 assists per 90 minutes. While Scotland’s chances of advancing past the group stage may be slim, Robertson’s odds offer significant value.
On the other end, Bruno Fernandes is among the favourites for most assists. He led the assist charts in qualification with eight assists and had an impressive assists per 90 average of 0.86. Playing in a goal-happy Portugal side, Fernandes is well-positioned to top the assist charts, especially given Portugal’s favourable draw.
Defensive Records and Clean Sheets
Group Stage Predictions
Only six of the 50 teams in the qualification phase maintained a clean sheet percentage above 50%. Portugal led with a remarkable 90%, conceding just three goals in total. France, Croatia, Netherlands, Belgium, and Romania also had strong defensive records, with clean sheet percentages ranging from 60% to 75%.
Germany, despite automatic qualification as hosts, have struggled defensively, keeping just one clean sheet in their last 12 matches. In contrast, Scotland, Germany’s first opponent, had a 50% clean sheet record in their qualifiers.
Teams Likely to Commit the Most Fouls
Among the 24 teams in Euro 2024, Ukraine stands out with the highest fouls per game average from the qualifiers at 13.6. Other teams expected to commit many fouls include Scotland, Czech Republic, Hungary, and the Netherlands, all averaging over 12 fouls per game.
Predictions and best bets for the Euro 2024 Specials
Main Special Bet: Portugal as the Highest Scoring Team
Portugal’s qualification campaign for Euro 2024 was nothing short of spectacular, as they amassed an astonishing 36 goals, the highest tally of any participating nation. This prolific scoring record underscores their potential to be the tournament’s top scorers. Key to their offensive prowess is the depth and versatility of their attacking line-up. Spearheaded by the evergreen Cristiano Ronaldo, who remains a formidable presence in front of goal, Portugal also boasts a wealth of creative and clinical talents.
Bruno Fernandes, who topped the assists charts during qualification with eight assists, plays a pivotal role in orchestrating the attack. His vision and ability to carve open defences make him a crucial asset. Alongside Fernandes, Bernardo Silva provides additional creative spark, while Rafael Leao and Diogo Jota bring pace, skill, and finishing ability to the forward line. This blend of experience and youthful exuberance creates a dynamic and unpredictable offensive unit.
Portugal’s group stage draw is another factor that significantly boosts their chances of being the highest-scoring team. They are placed in Group F alongside Georgia, Turkey, and Czechia. Georgia, ranked 75th in the world, presents a particularly favourable match-up. Portugal’s dominance in such fixtures is expected, and a high goal tally against the lowest-ranked team in the tournament could set the tone for their campaign.
Furthermore, assuming Portugal tops their group, they would likely face a third-placed team in the round of 16. This pathway could see them avoiding some of the stronger sides like England, France, and Belgium until the later stages, increasing their opportunities to score freely in the initial knockout rounds.
Additionally, Portugal’s attacking strategy under Roberto Martínez has been honed to maximise their goal-scoring opportunities. Martínez, known for his offensive approach, has moulded the team into a high-pressing unit that can quickly transition from defence to attack, catching opponents off guard. This tactical approach, combined with the individual brilliance of their forwards, makes Portugal a formidable goal-scoring machine.
Long Shot Special Bet: Poland to Score 0 Goals in the Group Stages
Poland’s journey to Euro 2024 has been marked by significant challenges, particularly in their ability to find the back of the net. During the qualification rounds, Poland managed to score only three goals in four matches against moderately ranked teams like Czechia (36th) and Albania (66th). This struggle to generate offensive momentum raises concerns about their capacity to score in the group stages of Euro 2024.
A closer look at their squad reveals a reliance on the ageing Robert Lewandowski, who, despite his legendary status, may find himself isolated and starved of service. Poland’s attacking tactics have often left Lewandowski without the necessary support to exploit his goal-scoring talents effectively. This tactical shortcoming was glaringly evident in their play-off final against Wales, where Poland failed to register a single shot on target, and the match remained goalless through 120 minutes.
Poland’s group stage opponents at Euro 2024 include France, the Netherlands, and Austria, all of whom possess strong defensive setups. France, in particular, are known for their defensive solidity, having conceded only two goals in eight qualification matches. The Netherlands, marshalled by Virgil van Dijk, also present a formidable barrier, having conceded just 0.88 goals per game during qualifiers. Austria, although slightly more vulnerable, still pose a significant challenge with their disciplined defensive approach under Ralf Rangnick.
Given these formidable defences, Poland’s prospects of breaking through seem bleak. The tactical approach likely to be employed by their manager, Michal Probierz, leans towards a conservative, defence-first strategy, particularly against stronger opponents. This could lead to Poland focusing more on damage limitation rather than aggressive attacking play, further diminishing their chances of scoring.
Moreover, historical context supports this prediction. Only four teams have failed to score a single goal in a European Championship since 1960, highlighting the rarity but possibility of such an outcome. Poland’s current form and tactical setup suggest they could join this unenviable list.
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