Alexander Isak at 10/1: Liverpool’s Record No.9 Is the PFA Award the Bookies Have Mispriced

Liverpool have just ripped up the summer’s script by prising Alexander Isak from Newcastle in a British record deal, and the ripple is already visible in the title market: the Reds’ price tightened from 6-4 to 13-10 and they have overtaken Arsenal at the head of the outright. That swing tells you how bookmakers rate the signing. PFA voters are no different; narrative plus numbers wins ballots, and Isak delivers both by the bucketful.

Isak to Liverpool, and why awards voters will be forced to take notice

• Liverpool’s record outlay on Alexander Isak isn’t a vanity splash; it’s the hinge on which the 2025/26 awards conversation will swing.
• The Swede’s blend of pace, hold-up play and ruthless finishing makes him the standout candidate in a crowded field.
• Back him now at 10/1 for PFA Player of the Year before the market wakes up to the inevitability.

He arrives as a 25-year-old with a Premier League body of work that is awkward to dismiss: 54 strikes in 86 league outings in black-and-white, 62 from 109 overall for Newcastle, and 23 in the last campaign when he chased Mohamed Salah to the Golden Boot line. That production was achieved in a side who faded late, not a chance-machine juggernaut. Now plug that profile into a team who are first in the table and who already own the shortest championship price. The ingredients for a PFA coronation are sitting on the counter.

A system that flatters the nine—and Isak is built for it

On paper, Liverpool’s forward structure writes itself. Isak is the undisputed No.9, Florian Wirtz slots as the advanced playmaker, while Mohamed Salah, Hugo Ekitike and Cody Gakpo fight for the flanks. That alignment does two things which matter for voters: it makes Isak the reference point for every attack and it guarantees national-TV moments. Goals win highlights, highlights shape memory, and memory wins ballots.

Technically he is the modern centre-forward in full: he can sprint away from centre-backs, keep possession when contact arrives, and link under pressure. There is scarcity in that skill set, and scarcity is why Liverpool were willing to break records. PFA awards lean towards players who bend matches to their will. Isak has been doing that on Tyneside without elite service; at Anfield, the service line will be continuous.

Our Best Bet For PFA Player Of The Year

Slot’s early missteps might accidentally magnify Isak

Let’s be blunt: Arne Slot’s opening weeks have been tactically messy. The experiment of shunting Dominik Szoboszlai to right-back distorted the midfield’s shape, and Liverpool’s structure looked exposed against Bournemouth and for long spells versus Newcastle—even with a one-man advantage after the interval in that 3-2 win. Slot seems determined to cram every toy into the toy box at once, and the balance has suffered.

Here’s the twist: that chaos only amplifies the value of a striker who finishes half-chances. When build-up is imperfect, the nine must turn scraps into meals. Isak thrives precisely there. A direct run across the front post, a deft near-post flick, a two-touch counter finish—these are his bread and butter. If Slot keeps overloading the front line while the midfield teeters, the Swede becomes the difference between a wild 2-2 and a breathless 3-2. Voters latch onto decisive men.

Odds, context and the rivals he has to outgun

The PFA grid has Isak quoted at 10/1. Scan the board and you see familiar names: Mohamed Salah (9/1 on some lists), Bukayo Saka (10/1), Florian Wirtz (10/1), Erling Haaland (12/1 in one market), Declan Rice (12/1), Virgil van Dijk (16/1), Eberechi Eze (16/1), Viktor Gyokeres (16/1), Hugo Ekitike (16/1), Jack Grealish (20/1), Martin Odegaard (20/1), Martin Zubimendi (20/1), Alexis Mac Allister (25/1), Phil Foden (25/1), Rodri (28/1), then a deep undercard including Dominik Szoboszlai, Bruno Fernandes and William Saliba at 40/1 territory, plus names such as Matheus Cunha, Moises Caicedo, Bryan Mbeumo, Ryan Gravenberch, Bruno Guimaraes, Josko Gvardiol, Marc Guehi, Rayan Cherki, Mohammed Kudus, David Raya, Joao Pedro, Benjamin Sesko, Estevao, Gabriel Martinelli, Rayan Ait Nouri, Jeremie Frimpong, Pedro Neto, Amad Diallo, Anthony Gordon, Jarrod Bowen and Noni Madueke stretching out to three figures.

Who actually threatens? Salah always lurks, but his own club have effectively installed Isak above him in the finishing hierarchy. Prices underline it: some firms even rate the Swede 10-11 to outscore Salah across the league. And remember: awards voting often punishes star veterans when a new talisman appears. If Liverpool lift trophies with Isak firing, members will feel compelled to recognise the fresh centrepiece rather than re-anoint the evergreen right-sider.

Arsenal’s duo of Saka and Gyokeres must split acclaim with Odegaard and Rice. That diffusion hurts them. Gyokeres may rack up numbers, but he is only 7-1 to top the scoring and still needs Arsenal to land silverware, otherwise his candidacy goes limp. Saka is dazzling but rarely gets the striker’s volume—voter psychology favours headline tallies. Odegaard and Rice can control contests, yet PFA ballots historically skew towards those with decisive end-product.

Manchester City are longer than usual at 7-1 for the title, which is a giant red flag for Haaland, Foden and Rodri in this specific award race. If the champions’ aura dims and results dip, the individual claims fall with it. Haaland’s goals will be there, but frankly, his game has become one-dimensional in phases, and when City’s chance creation wanes he can look disconnected. That perception matters in a peer-voted gong, where all-round influence carries weight.

Elsewhere, Bruno Fernandes needs a title push that simply isn’t priced; William Saliba is adored by aesthetes yet would need Arsenal’s defence to post absurd numbers; Eze has the artistry but not the platform; and the scatter of outsiders—Mbeumo, Cunha, Guimaraes, Bowen, Gordon, Neto and the rest—lack both the team trajectory and the narrative heft. This clears a lane for Isak.

The numbers behind the narrative: goalscoring race and award momentum

Look at the Golden Boot market snapshot. Erling Haaland led early at 10-11 with three, Gyokeres at 7-1 with two, Isak 7-1 pre-debut, Joao Pedro 10-1 with two, Salah 12-1 with one, and Ekitike 20-1 with two. If Liverpool top the table while Isak plays the central role, he climbs that ladder quickly. PFA voting patterns align closely with standout Golden Boot candidates who star for title chasers. Isak finished second to Salah last season with 23; repeat that scale within a stronger side and you’re basically building the winning dossier.

Liverpool’s own markets tell a sub-story. Some books offer 9-4 about Isak being the club’s top scorer and have pitched pick’ems between him and Salah head-to-head. That speaks loudly to internal hierarchy: the creators will tee him up, and he will get first refusal in high-leverage zones. It also hints that penalties and set-piece pecking order may tilt in his direction, particularly with Wirtz threading from No.10 and full-backs throwing cut-backs into the corridor.

Why the move from Tyneside supercharges his perception

Newcastle’s season began awkwardly: two points from three, stalemates at Aston Villa and Leeds, late-window turmoil, and a scramble that ended with Yoane Wissa arriving for around £55m and Nick Woltemade added as the project striker. Eddie Howe is now tasked with rewiring an attack on the fly after losing a 23-goal focal point. That turbulence creates contrast. When PFA voters look back, they will see Liverpool surging with their record signing while Newcastle recalibrate without him. Fair or not, awards are comparative storytelling.

Some critics have grumbled about how Isak forced the move. The fuss around “broken promises” and the training-ground stand-off made plenty of noise. Here’s the counter: awards aren’t morality plays, they’re verdicts on performance. Plenty of icons have agitated for transfers; few then produced. If Isak bags across the autumn while Liverpool sit first at 6-5 in title betting, the narrative hardens in his favour, and the summer storm becomes a footnote.

Tactical chemistry: Wirtz’s lanes, Salah’s gravity, Ekitike’s sacrifice

Florian Wirtz has been bought to dictate the No.10 pocket. He will supply disguised through-balls between centre-back and full-back, angles that Isak loves attacking. Salah’s gravity on the right drags two markers as standard, stretching the channels for the nine’s double-movement. Hugo Ekitike has already signalled he is open to shuffling positionally for the team’s benefit, ceding the primary striker’s mantle if required. That willingness creates role clarity, and role clarity creates rhythm for a finisher.

Cody Gakpo’s fight for a wing role adds another creative profile who can slice into the half-spaces and square for tap-ins. With that assembly, Isak isn’t chasing scraps; he’s dining on first-phase transitions and second-phase territory in the box. His xG per shot will climb; his volume will stay high; the optics will be golden.

Heavy criticism corner: Slot must stop the right-back vanity project

If there is a potential banana skin, it’s the manager indulging himself. The Szoboszlai-at-right-back adventure is an ego stroke that weakens the spine. Against Bournemouth the middle of the park was too often vacant; versus Newcastle, even playing the entire second half against ten, Liverpool conceded transitions that better sides will punish. Slot’s job is not to prove he can cram ten forwards into one XI; it’s to build a platform that allows his £125m No.9 to finish moves rather than firefight.

The good news is the message is obvious and the fix is simple: Szoboszlai belongs in midfield, not patrolling the touchline; the rest of the unit must compact when possession turns; and Wirtz has to be given a screen. Do that and Isak’s season takes care of itself.

Expected line-up and functional roles

Liverpool are likely to settle into a shape with Isak leading the line, Wirtz between the lines, Salah nailed to the right corridor, and one of Ekitike or Gakpo patrolling the left. Szoboszlai should return to the engine room, where his ball-carrying and set-piece threat protect territory. The defence will be asked to hold a high line, but the press must be synchronised—Isak is no passenger without the ball and will trigger from the front.

Head-to-heads and the award battlefield

When Liverpool meet Newcastle later in the season, expect the story to write itself. Books have even priced up Isak to score in that Anfield fixture at around 10-11. Voters eat up moments like that: the ex-hero returning and deciding the match. Against Arsenal, the Reds have already shown a late-winner instinct, and the Gunners’ own candidates—Saka, Gyokeres, Odegaard and Rice—will cannibalise each other’s case across the campaign. Against City, a weakened title price means their players need near-perfect seasons. That’s a high bar for Haaland, Foden and Rodri.

Our Take

I’m firmly in the camp that says the award is Isak’s to lose. The market at 10/1 underrates the power of narrative, the weight of a record transfer, and the simplicity of Liverpool’s attacking geometry. He owns a proven league strike-rate, he has already chased Salah in a weaker side, and he now steps into a setup designed to feed a penalty-box predator. Meanwhile, the competition screams inconsistency. Arsenal’s acclaim is split four ways—Saka’s stardust, Gyokeres’ finishing, Odegaard’s orchestration, Rice’s control. City’s 7-1 title quote tells you their aura has leaked; it’s hard to win the PFA when your team feel mortal. The outside shots—Fernandes, Saliba, Eze, Bowen, Gordon, Neto, Mbeumo, Guimaraes—either lack the platform or the numbers.

My strongest criticism goes towards Slot’s early tinkering. Playing Szoboszlai at full-back is theatre, not strategy, and it places needless strain on a midfield that already needs tightening. Sort that out, and Isak becomes the league’s cleanest outlet. Keep the vanity project running, and he still scores because chaos creates chances for elite movers. Either way, he accumulates the moments that sway a peer vote.

✅Final Prediction and Suggested Bet

Prediction: Alexander Isak delivers a mid-to-high twenties league tally, Liverpool remain in the title fight all the way, and the Swedish No.9 becomes the poster image for the campaign.

Suggested bet: Back Isak to be PFA Player Of The Year 2025/26 at 10/1. The price is wrong relative to his role, Liverpool’s title credentials, and the fragility of his rivals’ narratives.

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