The Champions League semi-finals advance this Wednesday, with PSG heading to SIGNAL IDUNA PARK to take on Borussia Dortmund. These teams have already met twice this season during the group stages of the competition. Both clubs progressed past Spanish teams in the previous round, each netting four goals in their second-leg victories over Atletico Madrid and Barcelona, respectively. To make the most of this semi-final we have crafted a big 28/1 Bet Builder acca which will hopefully deliver a big Wednesday win.
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Borussia Dortmund vs PSG Ultimate Bet Builder
Kylian Mbappe to Score Anytime
Rationale:
Kylian Mbappe has been the standout performer for PSG in the Champions League this season, with a remarkable tally of eight goals. His pace and precision have continually dissected defences, making him a constant threat. Against Borussia Dortmund, a team that has recently shown defensive frailties—highlighted by their substantial defeat to Leipzig—Mbappe’s prospects for scoring are notably high. In their group stage encounters, PSG crafted substantial expected goals (xG), with Mbappe directly contributing to these opportunities.
Specifically, in the victory in Paris, Mbappe accounted for a significant portion of PSG’s 2.44 xG, highlighting his critical role in their attacking thrusts. His consistent ability to position himself for high-quality chances, supported by an average xG per 90 minutes of 0.83 this season, enhances his likelihood of scoring in this fixture. The straightforward nature of this bet is underscored by the combined historical data and the current form, making it a promising choice for any bet builder.
Best Bet – Kylian Mbappe to score anytime
PSG to Take 14+ Total Shots
Rationale:
Paris Saint-Germain’s attacking dominance is further exemplified when reviewing their shot statistics in the Champions League. Throughout the campaign, PSG have averaged nearly 17 shots per game, underlining their offensive posture. Against a Dortmund side that tends to relinquish possession and focuses on a more reactive approach, PSG’s aggressive and forward-playing style is likely to result in a high number of total shots.
In previous encounters during the group stages, PSG consistently outshot Dortmund, which correlates with the tactical setup that sees the French giants maintain attacking pressure for prolonged periods. Considering Dortmund’s average of conceding 14.5 shots per game, the anticipated dynamic of this match suggests that PSG will replicate or exceed their previous shooting performances. This scenario makes selecting PSG to register at least 14 shots a calculated and data-backed choice, aligning with the expectations from their previous statistical outputs and game flow tendencies.
Best Bet – PSG to take 14+ total shots
Jadon Sancho to Have 1+ Shots on Target
Rationale:
Jadon Sancho’s impact on the wings for Dortmund has been instrumental, particularly in his ability to cut inside and challenge defenders with his adept dribbling and sharp shooting. Sancho’s tactical role often positions him in scenarios where shooting opportunities are frequent, and his technical skill set allows him to capitalise on these moments.
PSG’s defensive record, particularly in high-stakes games, exhibits occasional vulnerabilities, providing further rationale for expecting Sancho to test the goalkeeper. His consistent performance in getting shots on target in critical matches adds a layer of reliability to this bet. Given the expected open nature of the game, with PSG pushing forward, Sancho will likely find space and moments to execute strikes on goal, making it a sound prediction for him to register at least one shot on target.
Best Bet – Jadon Sancho to have 1+ shots on target
Emre Can to Receive a Yellow Card
Rationale:
Emre Can’s role in Dortmund’s midfield often requires him to engage intensively in breaking up opposing plays, which involves aggressive tackling and strategic fouls. His style of play inherently carries a higher risk of bookings, particularly in a match of this magnitude against a team like PSG, known for their quick and agile attackers.
Can’s responsibility to disrupt PSG’s midfield flow will be crucial, and in the heat of such a competitive fixture, tactical fouls become a likely outcome as he attempts to contain the likes of Mbappe and Neymar. The intensity and pace of the game, combined with Can’s usual playing style, significantly increase the probability of him receiving a yellow card during the match.
Best Bet – Emre Can to receive a yellow card
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