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Can a Low-Weighted Stayer Upset the Becher Chase Big Guns at Aintree?
The first weekend of December on the jumps calendar always feels like a proper turning point in the season, and this year is no exception. Aintree’s famous Grand National course stages its first major test of the campaign with the Becher Chase, while Sandown’s London National sits on the supporting bill to ensure thorough stayers are firmly in the spotlight. With so many horses holding multiple entries and several key handicaps only partially priced up in advance, this is a day where judgement and selectivity matter more than ever. Read on to find the best tips and predictions in addition to the latest betting offers for the Becher Chase on Saturday December 6th at Aintree (2:40 pm).
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Horse racing betting tips: Becher Chase tips
- Gaboriot has won two of his three starts at around three miles or further in Britain on soft or heavy ground
- Becher winners running off a last-win on soft going have produced the strongest historical trend, with a level-stakes profit of +64.50
- Gaboriot carries just 10st 1lb, compared with top-weight Mr Vango on 12st off an official mark of 152
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Gaboriot brings exactly the right blend of profile and price for the Becher Chase: a strong record at three-mile-plus on soft ground, proven stamina beyond this trip, a feather weight of 10st 1lb and recent solid Aintree form. He matches several key trends and looks primed to peak now.
At Aintree, attention naturally gravitates towards the Grand National fences. The Becher Chase, run over just shy of three miles and two furlongs, is a specialist assignment that has long been used as a stepping stone to various Nationals later in the season. Although no horse has yet completed the Grand National–Becher double in the same campaign, past winners such as Amberleigh House and Silver Birch have shown that a big performance here can foreshadow later glory when stamina is stretched even further. Others, like Into The Red, Hello Bud and Walk In The Mill, have stamped their authority on this race by winning it more than once, underlining how important course experience can be.
This year’s renewal is unlikely to be a huge field, with only 19 entries and several also in at Sandown, but it still looks a deep and nuanced staying handicap. The National course is currently described as soft, good to soft in places, and with further showers forecast it is reasonable to expect a proper test underfoot. That should suit the stronger stayers in the line-up, and it adds another layer of complexity for trainers and jockeys weighing up whether to run or wait for another day.
Sandown’s London National Handicap Chase adds further intrigue to the afternoon for connections with marathon types, and it is no surprise that some of the same yards have horses pencilled in for both assignments. Last season, for example, Mr Vango made his mark in the London National and he is now being aimed at the Grand National itself as he returns to tackle the famous Liverpool fences. With proven Aintree performers such as King Turgeon and Bill Baxter also hovering around the Becher entries, plus progressive and cross-code stayers like Gaboriot emerging from the ranks of hunter chasers and handicappers, punters have plenty to weigh up before committing to a position.
Given the tight ante-post landscape and the number of horses with alternative targets, this is not a weekend for spraying multiple speculative bets across the card. Instead, it pays to drill deeply into one race, understand the unique demands of the Grand National course, and side with a runner whose profile genuinely fits the trends and the expected conditions.
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Best Bet for Becher Chase (Aintree 14:40, Saturday 6th December)
Here at bettingtips4you we believe strongly in quality over quantity. Rather than scatter several conflicting selections across the same race, we prefer to put our name to a single clear prediction per event – a Best Bet. That approach keeps things simple for readers, removes the confusion of choice, and makes it far easier to track performance over time. For this year’s Becher Chase, our sole selection is
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Gaboriot to win
Gaboriot may not be the most fashionable name in the line-up, but a closer look at his profile suggests he is tailor-made for a strongly-run staying handicap around Aintree. Officially rated 125 and set to carry just 10st 1lb, he sneaks in at the foot of the weights, which can be a major advantage in a race where the top of the handicap is anchored by a horse like Mr Vango off 152 with the full 12st to shoulder. Historical trends for the Becher show that winners typically sit within 22lb of the minimum weight, and Gaboriot very much fits that low-weight, upwardly mobile pattern rather than the fully exposed top-end stayer.
The statistics by horse underline how effective he has been under similar conditions. His profile shows three wins from nine starts on this type of going and two victories from just three attempts at roughly this distance, evidence that he combines a strong staying engine with the ability to travel within his comfort zone over three-mile-plus trips. While he is yet to get his head in front at Aintree in three visits, he has already proved himself around a variety of British staying tracks since joining his current yard, including hunter chase successes at Cheltenham and Cartmel over three miles and further on soft ground.
That last point ties in neatly with one of the standout Becher Chase trends. The factor with the best level-stakes record over the past 20 renewals is a last win achieved on soft going, and Gaboriot ticks that box thanks to his dominant Cartmel success over 3m1½f on soft in May, when he surged clear to beat Jerrysback. Stamina has never been an issue: prior to that he had already landed a four-mile hunter chase at Cheltenham on testing ground, staying on strongly to defeat Master Templar, which shows he can cope with an extended trip and attritional conditions if the heavens open again before Saturday.
His recent Aintree form is also quietly encouraging. In November he finished second over 2m5f on good to soft, beaten only two lengths by Colonel Harry while carrying 10st 6lb. That run over a trip arguably on the sharp side for him suggested he retains plenty of pace and, crucially, that he can adapt his jumping style to the unique National fences in a competitive handicap. The race comments noted that he was keeping on well at the finish, and his Racing Post Rating of 131 there was close to his recent best of 133, hinting that a step back up in distance is exactly what he now needs.
From a trends perspective, Gaboriot is the type of lightly-weighted, battle-hardened chaser who can improve again when pitched into a deeper staying test. Over the last 20 Becher renewals, winners have typically held an official rating of at least 119 at the time of their last run and have never gone off bigger than 73/1 on debut or 25/1 in recent starts. Gaboriot comfortably meets those benchmarks, arriving here with a solid mid-range rating and a market profile that indicates respect rather than shock outsider. He also has a relatively clean record in terms of jumping – the overall trends show that the vast majority of winners have no more than two career falls – and his Aintree spins suggest he is learning to gain ground at the obstacles rather than merely survive them.
Add in the stable context and the picture becomes even more appealing. The Greenall & Guerriero yard has already shown they can place staying chasers effectively, and Gaboriot’s individual stats reveal a strong strike-rate at three miles and beyond since joining the team. With Robert Dunne booked again after steering him into the frame over a shorter trip here last time, there is continuity in the saddle as well as in his training regime. Dunne has three winners from his last seventeen rides in the period covered by the data and will be highly motivated to break Gaboriot’s Aintree duck in a race with an £84,000 first prize and the prestige of a Grand National-course handicap.
Taking everything together – his proven stamina on soft ground, progressive staying profile, low weight, recent Aintree experience and alignment with key Becher trends – Gaboriot stands out as a value-packed Best Bet in a race where several better-known rivals are burdened by high marks, long absences or ground doubts.
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