It’s the start of the beginning of the PGA Tour’s Fall season and Herrin Kendrick has his preview for the opener in California. Read on to find out his pick for this event and also make sure to take advantage of the sportsbooks offers listed below to maximise your betting value.
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Fortinet Championship Betting
Fortinet Championship Betting Tips | Thursday 14th September to Sunday 17th September 2023
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Recommended Bet
TEST  £20 returns £1,220  Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change |
Main Bet: Sahith Theegala To Win
The New Dawn of the PGA Tour
For those who have been somewhat uneasy about the PGA Tour golf season spanning two calendar years, a fresh transformation awaits. Previously described as the ‘wraparound’ season, we now anticipate a clear-cut 2024 season beginning with the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January and culminating with the Tour Championship come September.
But what happens to the events that traditionally occupied the September to December slot? Once recognised as the Fall season, it retains its title but has taken on a new role. Rather than signalling the season’s beginning, this seven-tournament stretch now offers players a secondary opportunity.
Opportunities Await
Having secured their positions for 2024’s eight key events, the top 50 players from the 2022/23 season can breathe easy. But for others, the revamped Fall tournaments represent potential gateways. Those who clinch ranks 51 to 60 by the end of this segment earn exemptions into the first two signature events of 2024. Below them, players continue to vie for a spot in the top 125, hoping for full exemption in the forthcoming season.
Analysing Players’ Performance
The Importance of Strokes Gained
Over the past five years, Strokes Gained (SG) data reveals a consistent trend: every winner has ranked within the top three for SG: Tee To Green. Impressively, each of these victors featured in the top 25 across all Tee To Green components: Off The Tee, Approach, and Around The Green. For instance, Max Homa’s performance last year saw him rank 1st in Tee To Green, followed by other commendable positions in the remaining categories.
Yet, putting prowess remains pivotal. The Strokes Gained Putting ranks for winners from 2018-2022 have been consistently impressive.
Silverado in California, a somewhat short 7,123-yard par 72 with compact bent/poa annua greens, demands comprehensive proficiency from players.
Garrick Higgo’s Rising Star
Garrick Higgo showcased marked improvement as the last season waned. His upward trajectory in July, combined with his impressive All-Around rankings, bode well for the South African. The correlation between previous winners and long hitters further brightens Higgo’s prospects, given his 33rd rank for Driving Distance in the recent season.
Despite a few setbacks in his debut, Higgo’s familiarity with Californian tournaments and his commendable achievements at a mere 24, earmark him as a contender for the forthcoming events.
Chesson Hadley’s Resurgence
Chesson Hadley’s recent form cannot be ignored. His commendable achievements in the latter part of the last season, combined with his extensive experience at Silverado, makes him a key player to watch. With his impressive course record and recent All-Around rankings, Hadley looks set to maximise the Fall Series and enhance his rank for 2024.
Martin Laird: A Dark Horse?
While the limelight might be on Max Homa and Justin Thomas, an underdog arises in Martin Laird. With a recent runner-up position and promising past performances at Silverado, Laird’s odds seem undervalued. Overcoming injuries and regaining his form, Laird is driven to reposition himself securely within the top 125.
Predicting the Winner
While the data paints an optimistic picture for players like Higgo and Hadley, there’s an intriguing pattern to note: Californian players have historically excelled at the Fortinet Championship. This brings Sahith Theegala into focus, whose impeccable performance, particularly in California, and recent momentum make him a prime candidate for the title.
However, the likes of Akshay Bhatia and Davis Thompson, with their stellar records and promising performances, cannot be overlooked.
Considering all the data and recent trends, Sahith Theegala emerges as our top pick for the Fortinet Championship winner. With a proven track record in California and recent successes under his belt, Theegala appears poised to continue the legacy of Californian victors at the Fortinet Championship.
Whether our prediction holds true or an underdog surprises us, the revamped PGA Tour promises a thrilling journey ahead for golf aficionados.
