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York crestYork
v
Gillingham crestGillingham

League Two | Sat 26 Sep, 15:00

York v Gillingham Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This League Two clash features York hosting Gillingham in a tightly contested fixture with both sides near the top of the table. Gillingham arrive in slightly better form, having accumulated 11 points recently compared to York's 7, and boast a stronger defensive record, conceding just 0.6 goals per game versus York's 1.4. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Gillingham's disciplined defense and efficient counter-attacks against York's more aggressive attacking style. With Gillingham's recent momentum and defensive solidity, this match promises a competitive edge for the visitors.

BT4Y best bet

Gillingham to Win

  • Gillingham have a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game this season.
  • York averages more shots and corners but concedes more goals, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Kendall is a prolific shooter with 13.7 shots per 90 minutes, posing a significant threat.
  • Recent form favors Gillingham with 11 points from recent matches compared to York's 7 points.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Gillingham to win with a 64.9% chance, reflecting their superior defensive record and recent form. Despite York's higher shot volume, Gillingham's efficiency and lower goals conceded per game suggest they can absorb pressure and capitalize on chances. The significant at 46.7% indicates the underestimate Gillingham's chances, making this a compelling selection. No data limitations affect , and the pick aligns well with the tactical and statistical profile of both teams.

Defensive SolidityGillingham concede only 0.6 goals per game
Strong positive
Recent FormGillingham earned 11 points recently vs York's 7
Positive
Shooting EfficiencyS. Kendall averages 13.7 shots/90 with 3.91 goals
Strong positive
Value Edge46.7% edge over implied odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Gillingham's disciplined defensive approach and recent strong form give them the tactical and statistical edge to secure a win against York. Their ability to limit goals conceded and generate efficient attacking chances underpins in their victory in this competitive League Two fixture.

Main risk

Risk Factor: Correct score bets are vulnerable to single-goal variance or clean sheets invalidating this pick.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and player impact

“Gillingham's defensive resilience combined with S. Kendall's attacking threat creates a balanced team capable of controlling the game and exploiting York's defensive vulnerabilities.”

Key Data Signals

Gillingham to Win evidence

Gillingham have a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game this season.

York averages more shots and corners but concedes more goals, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

Kendall is a prolific shooter with 13.7 shots per 90 minutes, posing a significant threat.

Recent form favors Gillingham with 11 points from recent matches compared to York's 7 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Gillingham to Win notes

  • In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were low at 1 per game, indicating tight contests.
  • York's 60% Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Gillingham's 40%, suggesting York tends to be involved in higher-scoring games, but Gillingham's defensive discipline may limit goal volume in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

York6
Avg corners for
Gillingham3.8
York10.4
Avg total corners
Gillingham8.6
York1.4
Avg yellow cards
Gillingham1.8
York17
Avg shots
Gillingham10.8

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

York1.8
Avg goals scored
Gillingham2.2
York1.4
Avg goals conceded
Gillingham0.6
York60%
BTTS rate
Gillingham60%
York60%
Over 2.5 goals
Gillingham40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +13.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 31%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have moderate BTTS rates at 60%, but Gillingham's lower goals conceded (0.6 per game) contrasts with York's 1.4, indicating a likely tighter defensive performance from Gillingham. The goal trends suggest a moderately open game but with controlled scoring, favoring a single winner rather than high-scoring draws.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Gillingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The for Gillingham to win offer strong value, with the model indicating a 64.9% chance versus an implied 18.2%, highlighting a significant underestimation by the market. This price sensitivity suggests a potentially profitable bet, supported by Gillingham's defensive strength and recent form momentum.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

York

LWDLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 2L
19 Sep 2026A Chesterfield0-2
12 Sep 2026H Swindon Town4-0
05 Sep 2026A Crewe1-1
01 Sep 2026A Cheltenham2-3
29 Aug 2026H Exeter City2-1

Gillingham

WWWDD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 1L
19 Sep 2026H Bristol Rovers3-0
12 Sep 2026H Tranmere2-0
05 Sep 2026A Rochdale4-1
01 Sep 2026A Chesterfield1-1
29 Aug 2026H Northampton1-1
Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Gillingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Gillingham's recent form is superior, having collected 11 points compared to York's 7 in recent matches. This momentum, combined with a stronger defensive record, suggests Gillingham are better positioned to control the game and secure a win in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0York wins
2Draws
0Gillingham wins
12 Feb 2013York v Gillingham0-0
26 Jan 2013Gillingham v York1-1
Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The two recent meetings between York and Gillingham have been low-scoring affairs, averaging just one goal per match. This limited sample suggests a cautious tactical approach from both sides historically, though current form and defensive stats favor Gillingham's ability to edge a win in this encounter.
Season team stats

League Two

York7
Played
Gillingham7
York1.9
Avg goals for
Gillingham1.6
York1.4
Avg goals against
Gillingham0.9
York1
Clean sheets
Gillingham3
Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
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Gillingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Over the season, Gillingham have demonstrated defensive solidity, conceding only 0.6 goals per game, while York's defense has been more porous at 1.4 goals conceded per game. Gillingham's attack averages 2.2 goals per game, slightly higher than York's 1.8, reinforcing their overall stronger performance profile.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Gillingham1273315
7York1173223
Gillingham sit 4th in the League Two standings with 12 points, narrowly ahead of York in 7th with 11 points. This close table position adds competitive tension, but Gillingham's slight edge in points and form suggests they have the upper hand in this matchup.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%York Over 2.5
40%Gillingham Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were low at 1 per game, indicating tight contests. York's 60% Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Gillingham's 40%, suggesting York tends to be involved in higher-scoring games, but Gillingham's defensive discipline may limit goal volume in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

York v Gillingham prediction

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