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Wealdstone crestWealdstone
v
Gateshead crestGateshead

National League | Sat 26 Sep, 15:00

Wealdstone v Gateshead Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Wealdstone and Gateshead meet in a National League clash where Wealdstone hold a clear advantage in recent form and league position. Wealdstone have collected 8 points and sit 20th, while Gateshead are 24th with 4 points. Wealdstone's attack is more productive, averaging 1.4 goals per game compared to Gateshead's 0.6, and their defense is more resilient, conceding fewer goals on average. Both teams have shown a 60% rate for matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating potential for an open game, but Wealdstone's home form and superior squad depth suggest they are the stronger side to claim victory.

BT4Y best bet

Wealdstone to Win

  • Wealdstone have a 74% to win, well above the implied chance of 60.6%.
  • Wealdstone average 1.4 goals per game, more than double Gateshead's 0.6 goals per game.
  • Gateshead concede 2.8 goals per game, significantly more than Wealdstone's 1.6.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating attacking potential.
  • Wealdstone sit 20th with 8 points, ahead of 24th placed Gateshead with 4 points.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Wealdstone to win due to their superior recent form, stronger attack, and more solid defense compared to Gateshead. The 13.4% positive indicates the current underestimate Wealdstone's chances. Both teams' tendency for higher-scoring games suggests Wealdstone can capitalize on defensive weaknesses. The data quality is solid, with no limitations affecting in the analysis.

Recent FormWealdstone have earned 8 points versus Gateshead's 4
Strong positive
Attack StrengthWealdstone average 1.4 goals per game, Gateshead 0.6
Strong positive
Defensive StabilityWealdstone concede 1.6 goals per game, Gateshead 2.8
Strong positive
Value Edge13.4% positive value edge on Wealdstone win odds
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateBoth teams have 60% over 2.5 goals matches
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Wealdstone's stronger recent form and better defensive record make them the likely winners in this National League fixture. Their ability to convert chances and maintain defensive discipline contrasts with Gateshead's struggles at the back, providing a solid foundation for a home victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form advantage for Wealdstone

“Wealdstone's combination of improved attacking output and tighter defense gives them a clear tactical edge over Gateshead, who have struggled to contain opponents and score consistently this season.”

Key Data Signals

Wealdstone to Win evidence

Wealdstone have a 74% to win, well above the implied chance of 60.6%.

Wealdstone average 1.4 goals per game, more than double Gateshead's 0.6 goals per game.

Gateshead concede 2.8 goals per game, significantly more than Wealdstone's 1.6.

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating attacking potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Wealdstone to Win notes

  • In the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.88, supporting the trend for over 2.5 goals in this fixture.
  • This suggests a relatively open game with chances for both sides, driven by attacking intent and defensive lapses, aligning with the teams' recent scoring and conceding patterns.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Wealdstone1.4
Avg goals scored
Gateshead0.6
Wealdstone1.6
Avg goals conceded
Gateshead2.8
Wealdstone60%
BTTS rate
Gateshead60%
Wealdstone60%
Over 2.5 goals
Gateshead60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 59% · edge +14.5 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting an openness in their games and potential defensive vulnerabilities. Wealdstone's higher scoring average and Gateshead's leaky defense suggest goals are likely, while the BTTS rate also stands at 60%, indicating both sides have found the net regularly in recent matches.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWealdstone to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 61% · edge +13.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Wealdstone Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The for Wealdstone to win are priced with a 60.6% implied chance, while the model estimates a 74% probability, indicating positive value. This suggests the market underestimates Wealdstone's chances, making the selection a value bet rather than a price-sensitive watch. The current pricing reflects Wealdstone's home advantage and form but leaves room for improvement if they maintain momentum.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Wealdstone

LLWLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 5L
19 Sep 2026A Tamworth1-2
15 Sep 2026H FC Halifax Town0-1
12 Sep 2026A Boston United3-1
05 Sep 2026H Kidderminster Harriers1-4
31 Aug 2026A Sutton Utd2-0

Gateshead

LLLDL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 7L
19 Sep 2026H Southend1-6
16 Sep 2026A Kidderminster Harriers0-1
12 Sep 2026A Forest Green0-4
05 Sep 2026H Solihull Moors1-1
31 Aug 2026A Harrogate Town1-2
Market aligned with main pickWealdstone to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 61% · edge +13.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
Wealdstone Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Wealdstone have collected 8 points recently, showing better consistency and attacking output than Gateshead, who have only 4 points. Wealdstone's ability to score 1.4 goals per game while conceding fewer than Gateshead reflects a more balanced and effective approach, giving them momentum and going into this match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Wealdstone wins
1Draws
6Gateshead wins
17 Mar 2026Gateshead v Wealdstone1-0
13 Sep 2025Wealdstone v Gateshead2-2
08 Feb 2025Wealdstone v Gateshead0-4
05 Oct 2024Gateshead v Wealdstone1-0
17 Feb 2024Wealdstone v Gateshead2-4
03 Oct 2023Gateshead v Wealdstone2-1
Market aligned with main pickWealdstone to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 61% · edge +13.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The eight previous meetings between Wealdstone and Gateshead have averaged 2.88 goals per game, indicating a tendency for open contests. While this supports the expectation of goals, the head-to-head record is not heavily weighted towards either side, so current form and season stats provide stronger guidance for the outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

National League

Wealdstone9
Played
Gateshead9
Wealdstone1.2
Avg goals for
Gateshead0.7
Wealdstone1.7
Avg goals against
Gateshead2.2
Wealdstone1
Clean sheets
Gateshead1
Market aligned with main pickWealdstone to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 61% · edge +13.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
Wealdstone Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over the season, Wealdstone have demonstrated a stronger attack and more resilient defense compared to Gateshead. Their 1.4 goals per game and 1.6 goals conceded contrast with Gateshead's 0.6 goals scored and 2.8 conceded, highlighting a clear performance gap that supports Wealdstone's chances to win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
20Wealdstone89225-4
24Gateshead49117-14
Wealdstone's position at 20th with 8 points places them comfortably above 24th placed Gateshead with 4 points. While both teams are in the lower half of the table, Wealdstone's higher point tally reflects better recent results and less pressure, which can translate into greater and control in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Wealdstone Over 2.5
60%Gateshead Over 2.5
2.88H2H avg goals
In the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.88, supporting the trend for over 2.5 goals in this fixture. This suggests a relatively open game with chances for both sides, driven by attacking intent and defensive lapses, aligning with the teams' recent scoring and conceding patterns.

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