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Aldershot Town crestAldershot Town
v
Tamworth crestTamworth

National League | Sat 26 Sep, 15:00

Aldershot Town v Tamworth Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Aldershot Town and Tamworth meet in a National League clash where goal-scoring opportunities are expected to be abundant. Aldershot Town sits comfortably in 8th place with a solid defensive record, conceding just 0.8 goals per game, while Tamworth struggles near the bottom in 21st, conceding 2.4 goals per match. Tamworth’s matches have consistently featured high goal tallies, with a 100% rate of games going over 2.5 goals. This contrast in defensive solidity and attacking intent sets the stage for an open, high-scoring encounter at this early season juncture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Tamworth has a 100% rate of matches over 2.5 goals this season.
  • Aldershot Town concedes only 0.8 goals per game, but Tamworth scores 1.6 on average.
  • Six previous meetings have averaged 3.5 goals per game, indicating a history of high-scoring matches.
  • Aldershot Town’s over 2.5 goals rate is 20%, suggesting their matches are usually tighter, contrasting with Tamworth’s open games.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a slightly positive value bet with a 47.4% chance compared to the implied 44.4%, supported by Tamworth’s consistently high-scoring games and a historical average of 3.5 goals in their head-to-head clashes. Despite Aldershot Town’s stronger defense, Tamworth’s attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities create a fertile environment for goals. The model is moderate at 52%, reflecting some uncertainty but overall a solid case for expecting a lively, goal-rich match.

Tamworth Over 2.5 Rate100%
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.5 goals per game
Strong positive
Aldershot Town Defensive Record0.8 goals conceded per game
Neutral
Model Chance vs Implied Chance47.4% vs 44.4%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a dynamic encounter with Tamworth’s attacking style clashing against Aldershot Town’s disciplined defense. The high historical goal average in their meetings and Tamworth’s open games suggest a match prone to multiple goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling option for bettors seeking excitement and value.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical contrast

“Tamworth’s games have been goal-fests this season, and their attacking approach combined with Aldershot Town’s occasional defensive lapses sets up a match where Over 3.5 Goals is a realistic expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Tamworth has a 100% rate of matches over 2.5 goals this season.

Aldershot Town concedes only 0.8 goals per game, but Tamworth scores 1.6 on average.

Six previous meetings have averaged 3.5 goals per game, indicating a history of high-scoring matches.

Aldershot Town’s over 2.5 goals rate is 20%, suggesting their matches are usually tighter, contrasting with Tamworth’s open games.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Analysis of the last six head-to-head matches shows an average of 3.5 goals per game, indicating a historical trend towards high-scoring encounters.
  • This sample suggests a fast tempo and attacking openness when these teams meet, reinforcing the expectation for Over 2.5 goals and supporting the model’s preference for Over 3.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Aldershot Town1
Avg goals scored
Tamworth1.6
Aldershot Town0.8
Avg goals conceded
Tamworth2.4
Aldershot Town60%
BTTS rate
Tamworth100%
Aldershot Town20%
Over 2.5 goals
Tamworth100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 44% · edge +3 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 83%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Tamworth’s matches consistently feature multiple goals, with a perfect record of exceeding 2.5 goals this season. Aldershot Town’s lower over 2.5 rate suggests tighter games, but the combination of Tamworth’s attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities points to a likely high-scoring match with both teams contributing to the goal tally.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionAldershot Town Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Aldershot Town to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Tamworth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Tamworth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced at 2.25 with a slight positive indicated by the model. The reflect a balanced view but lean towards a higher goal count, justified by Tamworth’s 100% over 2.5 goals rate and the historically high-scoring head-to-head record. This price is attractive for bettors looking for a goal-heavy game without excessive risk.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Aldershot Town

LDWWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 2L
19 Sep 2026A Barrow0-1
15 Sep 2026H Yeovil Town1-1
12 Sep 2026A Solihull Moors2-1
05 Sep 2026H FC Halifax Town1-0
31 Aug 2026A Eastleigh1-1

Tamworth

WLLDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 5L
19 Sep 2026H Wealdstone2-1
15 Sep 2026A Southend1-3
12 Sep 2026A Harrogate Town1-3
05 Sep 2026H Boston United2-2
31 Aug 2026A Yeovil Town2-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 82% vs implied 67% · edge +15 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Aldershot Town Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Aldershot Town to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Tamworth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Tamworth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Recent form data shows Tamworth averaging 1.6 goals per game but conceding 2.4, highlighting defensive weaknesses and offensive potency. Aldershot Town’s form is more balanced with fewer goals conceded but limited scoring. This contrast supports the likelihood of a high-scoring match, particularly favoring the Over 3.5 Goals market as Tamworth’s games tend to be open and goal-rich.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Aldershot Town wins
2Draws
3Tamworth wins
14 Feb 2026Tamworth v Aldershot Town1-1
18 Oct 2025Aldershot Town v Tamworth1-2
25 Jan 2025Aldershot Town v Tamworth2-2
26 Aug 2024Tamworth v Aldershot Town3-2
08 Mar 2014Tamworth v Aldershot Town1-0
21 Dec 2013Aldershot Town v Tamworth6-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Aldershot Town to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Tamworth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
The six previous meetings between Aldershot Town and Tamworth have averaged 3.5 goals per game, a strong indicator of open, attacking matches. This historical trend supports the expectation of a high-scoring game and aligns well with the Over 3.5 Goals selection, providing a solid football context for the bet.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

National League

Aldershot Town9
Played
Tamworth9
Aldershot Town1.1
Avg goals for
Tamworth1.8
Aldershot Town0.8
Avg goals against
Tamworth2.6
Aldershot Town2
Clean sheets
Tamworth0
Best odds for this sectionAldershot Town Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Aldershot Town to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Tamworth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Tamworth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Season statistics reveal Tamworth’s matches consistently surpass 2.5 goals, while Aldershot Town’s games are generally tighter. The disparity in defensive records and scoring rates suggests that when these teams meet, the attacking impetus from Tamworth combined with Aldershot Town’s occasional defensive lapses will produce a match with several goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8Aldershot Town1594323
21Tamworth89225-7
The league standings show Aldershot Town comfortably mid-table with 15 points, while Tamworth struggles near the relegation zone with 8 points. This positional difference may motivate Tamworth to play more aggressively to improve their standing, increasing the likelihood of an open game with multiple goals as they seek points away from home.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Aldershot Town Over 2.5
100%Tamworth Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
Analysis of the last six head-to-head matches shows an average of 3.5 goals per game, indicating a historical trend towards high-scoring encounters. This sample suggests a fast tempo and attacking openness when these teams meet, reinforcing the expectation for Over 2.5 goals and supporting the model’s preference for Over 3.5 Goals in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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