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Derry City crestDerry City

Premier Division | Mon 14 Sep, 19:45

Waterford v Derry City Stats

Data last updated: Sun 13 Sep 2026, 08:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Derry City host Waterford in a Premier Division clash charged with tension beyond the table standings. Derry arrive unbeaten in seven home league matches, showcasing tactical control and a strong midfield trio including Cameron Dummigan and Adam O’Reilly. Waterford, despite sitting bottom, have shown resilience with recent wins and a spirited 3-2 comeback at Dundalk, signaling a squad with renewed belief. The match promises a technical battle between Derry’s possession-based approach and Waterford’s counter-attacking threat, with both sides likely to find scoring opportunities in a fixture marked by emotional stakes and tactical nuance.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have scored in each of the last six league meetings between Derry City and Waterford.
  • Waterford have conceded in 16 consecutive away Premier Division matches, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Derry City are unbeaten in their last seven home league matches, averaging over one goal per game.
  • Recent matches involving Waterford have averaged 3.83 goals, indicating an open and attacking style of play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a strong probability (63.3%) for both teams to score, supported by historical head-to-head data where each of the last six league encounters saw goals from both sides. Waterford’s persistent defensive frailties on the road, conceding in 16 straight away games, combined with their recent attacking resurgence, create an environment conducive to goals at both ends. Derry’s home stability and possession control provide sustained offensive pressure, but Waterford’s ability to score counters the likelihood of a clean sheet. This pick is a solid value opportunity at current of 1.87, reflecting a nearly 10% .

Historical BTTS Rate in H2H100% in last 6 matches
Strong positive
Waterford Away Defensive RecordConceded in 16 consecutive away matches
Strong positive
Derry Home FormUnbeaten in 7 home league matches
Positive
Recent Match Goal Averages3.83 goals per Waterford recent match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have demonstrated consistent scoring ability in their recent encounters, with Derry’s home control and Waterford’s attacking fight setting the stage for goals at both ends. The tactical contrast between Derry’s possession and Waterford’s counter-attacks supports the expectation of a lively, goal-involving match.

Main risk

They sit above danger, but the games-played column complicates the picture.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“The persistent pattern of goals in recent Derry-Waterford clashes highlights a fixture where defensive lapses meet attacking intent, making both teams to score a compelling market to watch.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have scored in each of the last six league meetings between Derry City and Waterford.

Waterford have conceded in 16 consecutive away Premier Division matches, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Derry City are unbeaten in their last seven home league matches, averaging over one goal per game.

Recent matches involving Waterford have averaged 3.83 goals, indicating an open and attacking style of play.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • The last ten meetings between these teams have averaged 4 goals per game, with a strong trend towards Over 2.5 Goals outcomes.
  • This high-scoring pattern is driven by open play and defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting a fast tempo and multiple scoring chances in this fixture, aligning with the BTTS market rationale.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Waterford1.4
Avg goals scored
Derry City2
Waterford0.4
Avg goals conceded
Derry City1.8
Waterford40%
BTTS rate
Derry City60%
Waterford20%
Over 2.5 goals
Derry City40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 60% · edge +3.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 30%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Recent head-to-head meetings have been high-scoring affairs, averaging 4.67 goals per game with both teams scoring in all six matches. Waterford’s recent fixtures have averaged 3.83 goals, and their defensive record away from home suggests continued openness, supporting a BTTS outcome in this match.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Waterford

DWDWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
11 Sep 2026H Dundalk1-1
28 Aug 2026A St Patrick's Athl.2-0
21 Aug 2026A Sligo Rovers0-0
09 Aug 2026H Bohemians3-1
02 Aug 2026H Shelbourne1-0

Derry City

WDLWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
11 Sep 2026A Shelbourne1-0
30 Aug 2026H Shamrock Rovers3-3
21 Aug 2026A Bohemians3-5
07 Aug 2026H Sligo Rovers2-0
02 Aug 2026A St Patrick's Athl.1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 82% vs implied 67% · edge +15 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Waterford Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Waterford to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Derry City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Derry City to WinBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Derry City have accumulated 8 points recently with a goal scoring rate of 2 per match and a BTTS rate of 60%, reflecting solid offensive and defensive balance. Waterford have earned 11 points, scoring 1.4 goals per game but conceding only 0.4 in this period, though their overall defensive record remains leaky. The recent form data supports an expectation of goals from both sides, consistent with the BTTS selection.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Derry City373081392
8Waterford333071211-9
Derry City sit 5th with 37 points, enjoying a strong home run that underpins their and tactical control. Waterford, 8th with 33 points, are fighting to climb the table with recent improved results. The standings add context to the match’s competitive edge but do not diminish the attacking impetus both teams bring, supporting a BTTS outcome.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 60% · edge +3.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Waterford Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Waterford to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Derry City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Derry City to WinBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at 1.87 with an implied chance of 53.5%, while the model estimates a 63.3% probability, indicating a clear value opportunity. This pricing reflects the strong historical BTTS trend and Waterford’s defensive vulnerabilities away from home, making the market attractive without significant price sensitivity.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Waterford7.4
Avg corners for
Derry City5.6
Waterford13
Avg total corners
Derry City10.4
Waterford1.4
Avg yellow cards
Derry City2
Waterford17.4
Avg shots
Derry City15.6

No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Waterford wins
1Draws
6Derry City wins
03 Jul 2026Derry City v Waterford2-4
15 May 2026Waterford v Derry City2-2
27 Feb 2026Derry City v Waterford4-2
17 Oct 2025Waterford v Derry City1-2
04 Jul 2025Derry City v Waterford7-2
25 Apr 2025Waterford v Derry City2-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 60% · edge +3.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Waterford to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Derry City to WinBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
The head-to-head record strongly supports the BTTS pick, with both teams scoring in each of the last six league meetings. These encounters have been high-scoring and open, with an average of 4.67 goals per match, indicating a persistent pattern of offensive success and defensive lapses on both sides.
Season team stats

Premier Division

Waterford30
Played
Derry City30
Waterford1.3
Avg goals for
Derry City1.4
Waterford1.6
Avg goals against
Derry City1.3
Waterford6
Clean sheets
Derry City8
Best odds for this sectionWaterford Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Waterford to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Derry City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Derry City to WinBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over the season, Waterford have conceded 2 goals per match on average, with a consistent pattern of conceding in away games. Derry maintain a positive goal difference with 1.25 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game, reflecting a balanced but slightly superior home performance. These season-long stats underpin the likelihood of both teams scoring in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Waterford Over 2.5
40%Derry City Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
The last ten meetings between these teams have averaged 4 goals per game, with a strong trend towards Over 2.5 Goals outcomes. This high-scoring pattern is driven by open play and defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting a fast tempo and multiple scoring chances in this fixture, aligning with the BTTS market rationale.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.