Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.Premier Division | Mon 14 Sep, 19:45
Dundalk v St Patrick's Athl. Stats
Data last updated: Sun 13 Sep 2026, 08:41 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
This Premier Division clash features Dundalk hosting St Patrick's Athl. in a contest where the away side holds a strong recent form advantage, having secured 10 points compared to Dundalk's 5 in their last matches. St Patrick's Athl. have demonstrated defensive solidity, conceding only 0.8 goals per game, while Dundalk have struggled defensively with 1.8 goals conceded per match. The visitors' tactical discipline and efficient attack, combined with Dundalk's inconsistent form, set the stage for a competitive encounter with St Patrick's Athl. positioned as favorites to claim victory.
St Patrick's Athl. to Win
- St Patrick's Athl. have a 65.5% to win, offering strong value at 2.15 .
- Dundalk's defense concedes 1.8 goals per game, higher than St Patrick's Athl.'s 0.8, indicating defensive vulnerability.
- St Patrick's Athl. rank 2nd in the league with 53 points, ahead of Dundalk's 4th place and 41 points.
- Dundalk's recent form shows only 5 points gained versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 10, highlighting momentum disparity.
- Key St Patrick's Athl. Rooney provide significant goal threat and shot volume.
Why The Model Likes This Bet
Chance, price and football numbers
The model favors St Patrick's Athl. to win due to their superior defensive record, league standing, and recent form momentum. Despite Dundalk's higher average shots per game, their defensive frailties and lower points tally reduce their chances. St Patrick's Athl.'s efficient attack, led by prolific scorers like A. Keena, and their ability to limit goals conceded underpin the model's . The of 2.15 imply a 46.5% chance, well below the model's 65.5% estimate, indicating clear value in backing the away win.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
St Patrick's Athl. are tactically disciplined and defensively robust, making them well-placed to capitalize on Dundalk's defensive lapses. Their recent form and league standing reinforce their status as favorites in this fixture, suggesting a well-founded bet on the away win.
Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.
Quote from Expert
BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and player impact analysis
“St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive resilience combined with key attacking players like Keena and Rooney creates a compelling case for their victory, especially given Dundalk's defensive vulnerabilities.”
Key Data Signals
St Patrick's Athl. to Win evidence
St Patrick's Athl. Have a 65.5% to win, offering strong value at 2.15 .
Dundalk's defense concedes 1.8 goals per game, higher than St Patrick's Athl.'s 0.8, indicating defensive vulnerability.
St Patrick's Athl. Rank 2nd in the league with 53 points, ahead of Dundalk's 4th place and 41 points.
Dundalk's recent form shows only 5 points gained versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 10, highlighting momentum disparity.
What To Watch In The Data
St Patrick's Athl. to Win notes
- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.6 per game, indicating moderately open contests.
- However, St Patrick's Athl.'s recent defensive form suggests they may suppress the goal flow, potentially leading to a tighter scoreline than the historical average suggests.
Corners, cards and shots
Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.
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Useful next reads
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
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Player stats
Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.
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Market odds
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Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
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Head-to-head
Recent meetings and how much they still matter.
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Season team stats
Premier Division
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League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 53 | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 41 | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 1 |
Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
Next step
Betting context
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