Vila Nova

Goias

Serie B | Thu 10 Sep, 23:30

Vila Nova v Goias Stats

Data last updated: Wed 09 Sep 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Vila Nova hosts Goias in a Serie B clash where Vila Nova's recent form and home advantage set the stage for a competitive encounter. Vila Nova sits comfortably in 4th place with 44 points, showing stronger momentum than 13th-placed Goias, who have 36 points. Vila Nova's attack, led by players like Rafa Silva and Ryan, has been more productive, while Goias has struggled to convert chances consistently. This match carries significance for Vila Nova to maintain their promotion push, while Goias aims to close the gap and improve their standing, making tactical discipline and finishing crucial factors in the outcome.

BT4Y best bet

Vila Nova to Win

Vila Nova has earned 10 points recently, compared to Goias' 4 points in the same period.
Vila Nova averages 14.2 shots per game with 6.4 on target, significantly higher than Goias' 10.6 shots and 3.2 on target.
Goias concedes at a similar rate to Vila Nova but scores fewer goals, with Vila Nova averaging 2 goals per recent matches versus Goias' 0.6.
Head-to-head matches average 1.4 goals, indicating a moderately low-scoring trend but Vila Nova's offensive edge is notable.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Vila Nova to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, offensive output, and league position. Vila Nova's higher shot volume and goal-scoring rate underscore their attacking threat, while Goias' lower scoring and recent points tally highlight their struggles. The 24% at of 2.0 suggests this is a positive-value bet. No data limitations affect , and the model's strong rating supports Vila Nova's likelihood to secure victory in this fixture.

Recent form pointsVila Nova 10 vs Goias 4

Strong positive

Shots and shots on targetVila Nova 14.2/6.4 vs Goias 10.6/3.2

Strong positive

League standingsVila Nova 4th vs Goias 13th

Positive

Goal scoring rateVila Nova 2.0 vs Goias 0.6

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Vila Nova's consistent attacking pressure and superior recent form make them the likely winners in this Serie B fixture. Their ability to create and convert chances, combined with Goias' struggles to score, gives Vila Nova a tactical and statistical edge to secure all three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Vila Nova's offensive control and home advantage position them well to capitalize on Goias' scoring difficulties, making a home win the most probable outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Vila Nova to Win evidence

Vila Nova has earned 10 points recently, compared to Goias' 4 points in the same period.

Vila Nova averages 14.2 shots per game with 6.4 on target, significantly higher than Goias' 10.6 shots and 3.2 on target.

Goias concedes at a similar rate to Vila Nova but scores fewer goals, with Vila Nova averaging 2 goals per recent matches versus Goias' 0.6.

Head-to-head matches average 1.4 goals, indicating a moderately low-scoring trend but Vila Nova's offensive edge is notable.

What To Watch In The Data

Vila Nova to Win notes

Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 1.4, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring games.
Vila Nova's 40% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Goias' 20%, suggesting Vila Nova's matches are more open and higher scoring, which could influence match tempo and goal opportunities.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Vila Nova5.75

Avg corners for

Goias3.25

Vila Nova10.25

Avg total corners

Goias9

Vila Nova1.5

Avg yellow cards

Goias1.75

Vila Nova16

Avg shots

Goias11.25

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 58% · edge +1.1 pts

1.73

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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%

1.44

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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Vila Nova's higher average corners (5.2) and shots (14.2) indicate territorial control and sustained pressure, while Goias' lower figures suggest fewer attacking opportunities. Both teams have similar yellow card averages, implying balanced discipline levels that may not heavily influence the match flow.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vila Nova2

Avg goals scored

Goias0.6

Vila Nova1

Avg goals conceded

Goias1

Vila Nova0%

BTTS rate

Goias40%

Vila Nova40%

Over 2.5 goals

Goias20%

Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 67% · edge -0.7 pts

1.5

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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 61%

1.62

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%

2.2

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Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%

Check odds @ 5

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%

2.5

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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.5

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Goal trends show Vila Nova averaging 2 goals recently with no BTTS occurrences, while Goias scores less frequently but has a 40% BTTS rate. The head-to-head average of 1.4 goals suggests a moderately low-scoring match, but Vila Nova's offensive edge may tilt the balance towards a win without both teams necessarily scoring.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts

2.05

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Vila Nova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%

2.05

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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%

1.44

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%

2.5

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The Vila Nova to Win market offers clear value at of 2.0, reflecting a 50% implied chance against the model's 74% win probability. This positive indicates the market underestimates Vila Nova's strength, making the bet attractive without price sensitivity concerns.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vila Nova

LWDWW

Last 53W 1D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 1D 5L

05 Sep 2026A Athletic Club0-5

30 Aug 2026H Ceara2-0

23 Aug 2026A Operario-PR0-0

20 Aug 2026H Ponte Preta6-0

15 Aug 2026A Atletico Goianiense2-0

Goias

LWDLL

Last 51W 1D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 3D 4L

05 Sep 2026H Fortaleza EC0-1

28 Aug 2026H São Bernardo2-1

22 Aug 2026A Cuiaba1-1

19 Aug 2026H Juventude0-1

15 Aug 2026A Criciuma0-1

Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts

2.05

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Vila Nova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%

2.05

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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Vila Nova's recent form is strong, securing 10 points with a solid goal difference, while Goias has managed only 4 points and a lower scoring rate. This contrast highlights Vila Nova's momentum and , which are crucial in tight league contests and suggest a higher likelihood of home victory.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Vila Nova wins

3Draws

2Goias wins

09 May 2026Goias v Vila Nova1-0

01 Feb 2026Goias v Vila Nova1-0

16 Aug 2025Vila Nova v Goias2-0

17 Apr 2025Goias v Vila Nova2-2

16 Mar 2025Vila Nova v Goias0-0

09 Mar 2025Goias v Vila Nova0-1

Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%

2.5

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The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 1.4 goals per game, indicating relatively tight contests. While this suggests cautious play historically, Vila Nova's current form and attacking metrics provide a stronger case for them to break this trend and secure a win in this fixture.

Season team stats

Serie B

Vila Nova26

Played

Goias26

Vila Nova1.4

Avg goals for

Goias1

Vila Nova1.2

Avg goals against

Goias1.2

Vila Nova8

Clean sheets

Goias7

Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts

2.05

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Vila Nova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%

2.05

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Season statistics reinforce Vila Nova's attacking superiority, with a higher goals-for average and better shot metrics. Goias' defensive record is similar but their offensive struggles reduce their threat level. These season-long trends support Vila Nova's chances to control the match and secure a win.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
5	Vila Nova	44	26	13	5	8	7
13	Goias	36	26	10	6	10	-6

Vila Nova's 4th place position with 44 points reflects a stable promotion challenge, whereas Goias sits 13th with 36 points, indicating a mid-table battle. The standings suggest Vila Nova has more at stake to maintain their position, adding motivation and tactical urgency to this home fixture.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Vila Nova Over 2.5

20%Goias Over 2.5

1.4H2H avg goals

Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 1.4, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring games. Vila Nova's 40% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Goias' 20%, suggesting Vila Nova's matches are more open and higher scoring, which could influence match tempo and goal opportunities.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Vila Nova v Goias Stats

Match Report

Vila Nova to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Vila Nova

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Vila Nova v Goias Stats

Match Report

Vila Nova to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Vila Nova

Goias

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