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Sport Recife crestSport Recife
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Ponte Preta crestPonte Preta

Serie B | Fri 11 Sep, 01:30

Sport Recife v Ponte Preta Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sport Recife hosts Ponte Preta in a Serie B clash where both teams face contrasting fortunes. Sport Recife has shown attacking intent recently, scoring 1.6 goals per game and boasting an 80% BTTS rate, while Ponte Preta struggles offensively with just 0.2 goals per game and a 20% BTTS rate. Ponte Preta's defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 2.6 goals per game, suggest opportunities for Sport Recife's forwards. The match carries importance for Ponte Preta to escape the relegation zone, adding urgency to their approach, while Sport Recife aims to consolidate mid-table position.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Sport Recife scores 1.6 goals per game with 80% BTTS rate recently
  • Ponte Preta concedes 2.6 goals per game and scores only 0.2
  • Both teams combined average 3.1 goals in last 10 head-to-head matches
  • Sport Recife averages 15.2 shots and 4.4 corners per game, showing attacking pressure

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a strong 66.7% chance for both teams to score, supported by Sport Recife's consistent attacking output and Ponte Preta's defensive frailties. Despite Ponte Preta's low scoring, their defensive lapses and Sport Recife's offensive pressure create a favorable environment for goals at both ends. The of 22.3% indicates the market underestimates this likelihood, making BTTS a compelling pick. is high at 88%, reflecting solid data backing without significant data limitations.

Sport Recife attacking form1.6 goals/game, 80% BTTS rate
Strong positive
Ponte Preta defensive weakness2.6 goals conceded/game
Strong positive
Head-to-head goal average3.1 goals per match
Positive
Market value edge22.3%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams to score is a logical pick given Sport Recife's offensive consistency and Ponte Preta's defensive struggles. Ponte Preta's urgent need for points may push them forward, increasing chances of conceding. The data supports a match with goals at both ends, aligning with recent form and tactical outlooks.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Player and tactical analysis supporting BTTS

“Sport Recife's attacking players like Perotti and Barletta create sustained pressure, while Ponte Preta's defensive vulnerabilities and offensive efforts suggest goals from both sides are highly plausible.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Sport Recife scores 1.6 goals per game with 80% BTTS rate recently

Ponte Preta concedes 2.6 goals per game and scores only 0.2

Both teams combined average 3.1 goals in last 10 head-to-head matches

Sport Recife averages 15.2 shots and 4.4 corners per game, showing attacking pressure

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, an average of 3.1 goals per game has been recorded, indicating a tendency for open, attacking encounters.
  • This trend suggests a higher tempo and goal-scoring opportunities, supporting the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and reinforcing the BTTS selection.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sport Recife4.4
Avg corners for
Ponte Preta4
Sport Recife11.8
Avg total corners
Ponte Preta12
Sport Recife0.8
Avg yellow cards
Ponte Preta2.2
Sport Recife15.2
Avg shots
Ponte Preta9.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 75% · edge -6.2 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Sport Recife averages 15.2 shots and 4.4 corners per game, reflecting sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. Ponte Preta's 9.4 shots and 4 corners indicate moderate offensive attempts. Ponte Preta's higher yellow card average (2.2) suggests defensive aggression, potentially leading to set-piece opportunities and shots on target.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sport Recife1.6
Avg goals scored
Ponte Preta0.2
Sport Recife1.4
Avg goals conceded
Ponte Preta2.6
Sport Recife80%
BTTS rate
Ponte Preta20%
Sport Recife100%
Over 2.5 goals
Ponte Preta20%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Recent form shows Sport Recife scoring frequently with an 80% BTTS rate, while Ponte Preta's low scoring is offset by conceding 2.6 goals per game. Their combined head-to-head average of 3.1 goals per match supports an open game with goals at both ends, reinforcing the BTTS angle.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Ponte Preta Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Ponte Preta to WinBetUK guide price · model 22%
15
Check odds @ 15
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Sport Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Sport Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively at 2.25 with a 44.4% implied chance, while the model estimates a 66.7% probability, indicating clear value. This suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of goals from both sides, making BTTS a favorable bet without price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sport Recife

LLWLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
05 Sep 2026A Ceara1-2
29 Aug 2026A Novorizontino1-2
24 Aug 2026H America Mineiro3-0
19 Aug 2026A Avai1-2
15 Aug 2026H Londrina2-1

Ponte Preta

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 8L
06 Sep 2026H São Bernardo0-2
30 Aug 2026A America Mineiro0-2
23 Aug 2026H Avai0-2
20 Aug 2026A Vila Nova0-6
14 Aug 2026H Nautico Recife1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
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Ponte Preta Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.04
Check odds @ 1.04
Ponte Preta to WinBetUK guide price · model 22%
15
Check odds @ 15
Sport Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Sport Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
8
Check odds @ 8
Sport Recife has collected 6 points recently, scoring 1.6 goals per game and maintaining an 80% BTTS rate, showing offensive consistency. Ponte Preta's form is poor with only 1 point and a 20% BTTS rate, but their defensive fragility suggests vulnerability to conceding, supporting the BTTS scenario despite their scoring struggles.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Sport Recife wins
4Draws
1Ponte Preta wins
09 May 2026Ponte Preta v Sport Recife1-3
17 Nov 2024Ponte Preta v Sport Recife0-4
27 Jul 2024Sport Recife v Ponte Preta3-1
10 Oct 2023Sport Recife v Ponte Preta3-3
11 Jun 2023Ponte Preta v Sport Recife1-1
07 Sep 2022Ponte Preta v Sport Recife1-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Ponte Preta to WinBetUK guide price · model 22%
15
Check odds @ 15
Sport Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
8
Check odds @ 8
The 10 previous meetings between these teams have averaged 3.1 goals per match, demonstrating a history of open games with goals from both sides. This historical pattern supports the BTTS pick, showing that both teams have found the net regularly when facing each other.
Season team stats

Serie B

Sport Recife26
Played
Ponte Preta26
Sport Recife1.3
Avg goals for
Ponte Preta0.6
Sport Recife1
Avg goals against
Ponte Preta2.1
Sport Recife9
Clean sheets
Ponte Preta2
Best odds for this sectionPonte Preta Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 31% vs implied 16% · edge +15 pts
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Load more odds for this section
Ponte Preta to WinBetUK guide price · model 22%
15
Check odds @ 15
Sport Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Sport Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over the season, Sport Recife's attack averages 1.6 goals per game with a high BTTS rate of 80%, reflecting offensive reliability. Ponte Preta's defense concedes 2.6 goals per game, indicating susceptibility. These season-long trends align with the BTTS pick, as both teams have shown tendencies to concede and score in their matches.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
10Sport Recife382691168
20Ponte Preta10262420-38
Sport Recife sits comfortably in 10th place with 38 points, showing mid-table stability, while Ponte Preta languishes in 20th with 10 points, facing relegation pressure. This disparity suggests Ponte Preta may adopt a riskier approach to chase points, increasing chances for goals at both ends in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Sport Recife Over 2.5
20%Ponte Preta Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, an average of 3.1 goals per game has been recorded, indicating a tendency for open, attacking encounters. This trend suggests a higher tempo and goal-scoring opportunities, supporting the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and reinforcing the BTTS selection.

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