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Vasteras SK FK crestVasteras SK FK
v
Sirius crestSirius

Allsvenskan | Sat 05 Sep, 16:30

Vasteras SK FK v Sirius Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Allsvenskan fixture features Vasteras SK FK hosting league leaders Sirius in a contest with attacking intent on both sides. Vasteras SK FK have struggled defensively, conceding an average of two goals per game, while Sirius, top of the table, boast a potent offense averaging 1.4 goals per match. Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting an open game. Sirius's offensive trio, including R. Liimatta, provide significant goal threat, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.
  • Sirius averages 15.33 shots and 5.33 shots on target per game, indicating strong attacking pressure.
  • Vasteras SK FK concede 2 goals per match on average, highlighting defensive vulnerability.
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 3 goals per game, supporting a high-scoring trend.
  • Top Sirius attackers R. Liimatta show high shot and goal involvement, increasing scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 63.6% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, slightly above the implied market chance of 62.5%, indicating a small positive . Both teams demonstrate attacking tendencies and defensive frailties, with Sirius leading the league and Vasteras SK FK conceding frequently. The average goals in recent head-to-head matches and the teams' own scoring rates support the likelihood of a goal-rich game. No data limitations affect , making this a solid statistical and tactical case for Over 2.5 Goals.

Model Probability63.6% chance of Over 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance62.5%
Neutral
Value Edge+1.1%
Positive
Team Scoring RatesVasteras SK FK 0.8, Sirius 1.4 goals per game
Positive
Defensive RecordsBoth concede 2 goals per game on average
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game given Sirius's attacking prowess and Vasteras SK FK's defensive struggles. Sirius's top scorers like R. Liimatta create multiple threats, while Vasteras SK FK's inability to keep clean sheets suggests goals are likely. This combination supports a bet on Over 2.5 Goals with tactical and statistical backing.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Offensive strength and defensive weakness

“Sirius's offensive firepower combined with Vasteras SK FK's defensive lapses sets the stage for a lively, high-scoring match. The attacking roles of Ure and Liimatta, alongside Vasteras's vulnerability at the back, make Over 2.5 Goals a compelling angle.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.

Sirius averages 15.33 shots and 5.33 shots on target per game, indicating strong attacking pressure.

Vasteras SK FK concede 2 goals per match on average, highlighting defensive vulnerability.

Recent head-to-head matches average 3 goals per game, supporting a high-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, with head-to-head meetings averaging 3 goals.
  • This trend suggests a tempo favoring open play and goal opportunities, driven by Sirius's attacking style and Vasteras SK FK's defensive openness, making Over 2.5 Goals a plausible outcome.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vasteras SK FK0.8
Avg goals scored
Sirius1.4
Vasteras SK FK2
Avg goals conceded
Sirius2
Vasteras SK FK20%
BTTS rate
Sirius40%
Vasteras SK FK60%
Over 2.5 goals
Sirius60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 63% · edge +1.1 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Both teams have shown a propensity for goals, with Vasteras SK FK scoring 0.8 and Sirius 1.4 goals per game, while both concede around 2 goals per match. The head-to-head average of 3 goals per game reinforces the expectation of multiple goals, though Vasteras's low BTTS rate (20%) versus Sirius's 40% suggests some matches may be one-sided.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 63% · edge +1.1 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
Vasteras SK FK Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Vasteras SK FK to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Sirius Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced around 1.6 with an implied chance of 62.5%, closely matching the model's 63.6% probability. This small positive suggests the price fairly reflects the likelihood but offers a slight advantage to the bettor, making it a reasonable selection without significant price sensitivity.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Vasteras SK FK3
Avg corners for
Sirius7.4
Vasteras SK FK7.6
Avg total corners
Sirius12.2
Vasteras SK FK2
Avg yellow cards
Sirius1.8
Vasteras SK FK9.6
Avg shots
Sirius16.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 62% · edge -3.1 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Sirius dominates in attacking metrics, averaging 15.33 shots and 6.67 corners per game, indicating sustained pressure and wide attacking play. Vasteras SK FK averages fewer shots and corners but commits fouls at a moderate rate, with both teams averaging around 2 yellow cards per match, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive contest.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vasteras SK FK

WDLWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
29 Aug 2026A BK Hacken3-1
23 Aug 2026H Kalmar FF0-0
14 Aug 2026A IF Elfsborg0-3
10 Aug 2026H Djurgardens IF1-0
03 Aug 2026A Djurgardens IF0-6

Sirius

LLLDW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
31 Aug 2026H Malmo FF0-1
21 Aug 2026H BK Hacken0-3
15 Aug 2026A Mjallby AIF3-4
10 Aug 2026H IF Brommapojkarna2-2
03 Aug 2026A Halmstad2-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Vasteras SK FK Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Vasteras SK FK to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Sirius Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Sirius to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Recent form data shows both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, reflecting consistent attacking output and defensive lapses. Vasteras SK FK have accumulated 7 points with a low scoring rate, while Sirius leads with 4 points and a stronger offense, indicating momentum favoring a goal-rich encounter.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Vasteras SK FK wins
1Draws
2Sirius wins
18 Apr 2026Sirius v Vasteras SK FK4-1
31 Aug 2024Vasteras SK FK v Sirius1-2
20 May 2024Sirius v Vasteras SK FK0-0
03 Feb 2024Sirius v Vasteras SK FK1-3
29 Feb 2020Sirius v Vasteras SK FK0-3
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 63% · edge +1.1 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
Vasteras SK FK to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Sirius to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The five recent head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 3 goals per game, indicating a history of open, goal-filled contests. This sample supports the expectation of Over 2.5 Goals, though tactical changes or form fluctuations could moderate this trend in the current fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Allsvenskan

Vasteras SK FK20
Played
Sirius20
Vasteras SK FK1.4
Avg goals for
Sirius2.4
Vasteras SK FK1.7
Avg goals against
Sirius1.4
Vasteras SK FK6
Clean sheets
Sirius6
Best odds for this sectionVasteras SK FK Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Load more odds for this section
Vasteras SK FK to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Sirius Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Sirius to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Season-long statistics reveal both teams concede an average of 2 goals per game, with Sirius scoring more prolifically. The balance of attacking output and defensive vulnerability supports the likelihood of a match exceeding 2.5 goals, consistent with their season trends and tactical approaches.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Sirius4520143321
8Vasteras SK FK2920857-6
Sirius sits atop the Allsvenskan table with 42 points, reflecting strong form and offensive efficiency. Vasteras SK FK's mid-table position with 29 points aligns with their mixed defensive record. While standings highlight Sirius's superiority, the match's goal potential is more influenced by attacking and defensive profiles than league pressure.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Vasteras SK FK Over 2.5
60%Sirius Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, with head-to-head meetings averaging 3 goals. This trend suggests a tempo favoring open play and goal opportunities, driven by Sirius's attacking style and Vasteras SK FK's defensive openness, making Over 2.5 Goals a plausible outcome.

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