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Chapecoense-sc crestChapecoense-sc

Serie A | Sat 25 Jul, 22:30

Santos v Chapecoense-sc Stats

Data last updated: Fri 24 Jul 2026, 05:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Santos face Chapecoense-sc in a Serie A clash where Santos' recent form and home advantage set the stage for a competitive encounter. Santos have collected 21 points, sitting 15th, while Chapecoense-sc languish at the bottom with just 9 points. Santos' attack, led by key players like Gabriel Barbosa and Neymar, has shown more potency, while Chapecoense-sc struggle defensively and have yet to find consistent form. The tactical battle will likely see Santos pressing to exploit Chapecoense-sc's defensive vulnerabilities, aiming to secure vital points in this challenging fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Santos to Win

  • Santos have a 74% to win, reflecting strong in their home advantage and form.
  • Santos average 1.6 goals per game with a high 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating attacking intent.
  • Chapecoense-sc have the league's lowest points tally and concede 2.4 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailty.
  • Key Santos attackers like Gabriel Barbosa (7 goals) and Neymar (0.52 goals per game) provide significant goal threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Santos to win due to their superior recent form, stronger attacking output, and home advantage. Santos average more goals per game and have a higher rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting they can break down Chapecoense-sc's leaky defense. Player-level data shows Gabriel Barbosa and Neymar as consistent goal threats, enhancing Santos' chances. Chapecoense-sc's poor defensive record and low points tally further support the likelihood of a Santos victory. No price warnings apply, and data quality is solid for both teams.

Recent FormSantos 6 points vs Chapecoense-sc 0 points
Strong positive
Goal ScoringSantos 1.6 goals/game vs Chapecoense-sc 0.6
Strong positive
Defensive RecordChapecoense-sc concede 2.4 goals/game
Strong positive
Player ThreatGabriel Barbosa 7 goals, Neymar 0.52 goals/game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Santos' home form and attacking firepower make them the clear tactical and statistical favorite to secure victory. Their ability to exploit Chapecoense-sc's defensive weaknesses, combined with key players in form, underpins this confident pick.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Santos possess the attacking quality and home advantage to capitalize on Chapecoense-sc's defensive struggles, making their win the most logical outcome in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Santos to Win evidence

Santos have a 74% to win, reflecting strong in their home advantage and form.

Santos average 1.6 goals per game with a high 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating attacking intent.

Chapecoense-sc have the league's lowest points tally and concede 2.4 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailty.

Key Santos attackers like Gabriel Barbosa (7 goals) and Neymar (0.52 goals per game) provide significant goal threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Santos to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.1, supporting a moderate scoring environment.
  • Santos' higher Over 2.5 Goals rate (80%) compared to Chapecoense-sc (60%) suggests a faster tempo and attacking approach likely to produce goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Santos1.6
Avg goals scored
Chapecoense-sc0.6
Santos1.8
Avg goals conceded
Chapecoense-sc2.4
Santos60%
BTTS rate
Chapecoense-sc40%
Santos80%
Over 2.5 goals
Chapecoense-sc60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.3 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 79%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Santos average 1.6 goals per game with an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, while Chapecoense-sc's defense concedes 2.4 goals per match. The combined data suggests a high likelihood of goals, with BTTS less certain given Chapecoense-sc's lower scoring rate but defensive vulnerability.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSantos to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 70% · edge +3.6 pts
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Santos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.21
Check odds @ 1.21
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The Santos to Win market reflects a strong model at 74%, indicating a solid probability of victory. The are consistent with their superior form and attacking metrics, making this a price-sensitive but justified selection rather than a deep value bet.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Santos4.2
Avg corners for
Chapecoense-sc3.6
Santos9
Avg total corners
Chapecoense-sc10.4
Santos2.6
Avg yellow cards
Chapecoense-sc1.4
Santos12.4
Avg shots
Chapecoense-sc12.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 58% · edge +0.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Santos average more corners (4.2) and yellow cards (2.6) than Chapecoense-sc, reflecting their territorial control and aggressive play style. Both teams generate similar shot volumes, but Santos' higher shots on target indicate better finishing opportunities and pressure.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Santos

LWLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
16 Jul 2026A Botafogo1-2
31 May 2026H Vitoria3-1
23 May 2026A Gremio2-3
17 May 2026H Coritiba0-3
10 May 2026H RB Bragantino2-0

Chapecoense-sc

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 9L
23 Jul 2026H Flamengo0-4
17 Jul 2026A Bahia0-2
31 May 2026A Palmeiras0-1
24 May 2026A Cruzeiro1-2
17 May 2026H Remo2-3
Market aligned with main pickSantos to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 70% · edge +3.6 pts
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Santos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.21
Check odds @ 1.21
Santos have earned 6 points recently, showing improved consistency and attacking output, while Chapecoense-sc remain winless with 0 points. This form disparity favors Santos, who have also maintained a higher goal-scoring rate and defensive solidity in recent matches.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Santos wins
1Draws
4Chapecoense-sc wins
28 Jan 2026Chapecoense-sc v Santos4-2
17 Oct 2024Chapecoense-sc v Santos3-2
02 Jul 2024Santos v Chapecoense-sc1-0
17 Nov 2021Santos v Chapecoense-sc2-0
01 Aug 2021Chapecoense-sc v Santos0-1
01 Dec 2019Santos v Chapecoense-SC2-0
Market aligned with main pickSantos to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 70% · edge +3.6 pts
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The recent 10 meetings between Santos and Chapecoense-sc average 2.1 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. While past results provide context, current form and squad quality differences give Santos a stronger edge in this encounter.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Santos19
Played
Chapecoense-sc19
Santos1.4
Avg goals for
Chapecoense-sc0.9
Santos1.6
Avg goals against
Chapecoense-sc2.1
Santos4
Clean sheets
Chapecoense-sc1
Market aligned with main pickSantos to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 70% · edge +3.6 pts
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Load more odds for this section
Santos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.21
Check odds @ 1.21
Over the season, Santos' attack has been more productive, averaging 1.6 goals per game compared to Chapecoense-sc's 0.6. Defensively, Santos concede fewer goals, supporting their ability to control matches and secure wins, reinforcing the pick for a home victory.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
15Santos2119568-4
20Chapecoense-sc9191612-22
Santos sit 15th with 21 points, comfortably above Chapecoense-sc, who are 20th with 9 points. The standings reflect Santos' stronger campaign and greater motivation to consolidate their position, while Chapecoense-sc face pressure to avoid relegation, adding tactical urgency to the fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Santos Over 2.5
60%Chapecoense-sc Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.1, supporting a moderate scoring environment. Santos' higher Over 2.5 Goals rate (80%) compared to Chapecoense-sc (60%) suggests a faster tempo and attacking approach likely to produce goals in this fixture.

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