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Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama
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Independiente Medellin crestIndependiente Medellin

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Wed 29 Jul, 23:00

Vasco DA Gama v Independiente Medellin Stats

Data last updated: Tue 28 Jul 2026, 05:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This CONMEBOL Sudamericana clash features Vasco DA Gama hosting Independiente Medellin in a fixture poised for attacking intensity. Vasco DA Gama arrives in strong form with 10 points and an aggressive offensive style, while Independiente Medellin has struggled for points but maintains a high-scoring approach. Both teams have shown a tendency for open play and goal-rich matches, setting the stage for a lively encounter with multiple goal-scoring opportunities expected under the South American night sky.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have a 100% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches.
  • Vasco DA Gama averages 15.4 shots and 6.6 shots on target per game, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Independiente Medellin also averages 12 shots per game with a strong BTTS rate of 100%.
  • Recent head-to-head shows 4 goals scored in their only meeting, supporting a high-scoring trend.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 2.5 Goals with a 78% chance, driven by both teams' attacking profiles and recent form. Vasco DA Gama's consistent offensive output (2.2 goals per game) and Independiente Medellin's aggressive playstyle contribute to an expectation of multiple goals. Both sides have perfect Over 2.5 records recently, and their combined shot volumes and goal threat players reinforce the likelihood of a goal-rich match. No price warnings apply, making this a solid football-based selection.

Recent Over 2.5 Rate100% both teams
Strong positive
Average Goals per GameVasco 2.2, Independiente 2.0
Strong positive
Shot VolumeVasco 15.4, Independiente 12 per game
Positive
Head-to-Head Goals4 goals in last meeting
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with attacking intent from both sides, as Vasco DA Gama's strong home form meets Independiente Medellin's high-risk offensive style. The data supports multiple goals given their recent scoring trends and shot volumes, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking dynamics

“Both teams have demonstrated offensive firepower and willingness to commit players forward, which should produce a lively, goal-filled encounter under South American competition pressure.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have a 100% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches.

Vasco DA Gama averages 15.4 shots and 6.6 shots on target per game, indicating offensive pressure.

Independiente Medellin also averages 12 shots per game with a strong BTTS rate of 100%.

Recent head-to-head shows 4 goals scored in their only meeting, supporting a high-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last meeting between these teams, 4 goals were scored, supporting a high-scoring trend.
  • Both teams have maintained a 100% Over 2.5 rate in recent matches, reinforcing expectations of a fast-paced game with multiple goals.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Vasco DA Gama5.2
Avg corners for
Independiente Medellin3
Vasco DA Gama10.8
Avg total corners
Independiente Medellin9
Vasco DA Gama2.8
Avg yellow cards
Independiente Medellin1
Vasco DA Gama15.4
Avg shots
Independiente Medellin12
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Vasco DA Gama's average of 5.2 corners and 2.8 yellow cards per game indicates sustained attacking pressure and physical play, while Independiente Medellin's 3 corners and lower card count reflect a slightly less aggressive style. Shot volumes favor Vasco's offensive control, contributing to goal chances.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vasco DA Gama2.2
Avg goals scored
Independiente Medellin2
Vasco DA Gama1.2
Avg goals conceded
Independiente Medellin2
Vasco DA Gama60%
BTTS rate
Independiente Medellin100%
Vasco DA Gama100%
Over 2.5 goals
Independiente Medellin100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Both Vasco DA Gama and Independiente Medellin have perfect Over 2.5 records recently and high BTTS rates, especially Independiente's 100% BTTS. Their attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities suggest multiple goals and both teams scoring are likely outcomes.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Independiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
The Over 2.5 Goals market is supported by a 78% , reflecting strong recent scoring trends from both teams. Without explicit , the selection stands as a football-driven choice rather than a value bet, with no price warnings indicating caution.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vasco DA Gama

DWLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 2L
22 Jul 2026A Independiente Medellin2-2
27 May 2026H Barracas Central3-0
20 May 2026A Olimpia1-3
06 May 2026A A. Italiano2-1
30 Apr 2026H Olimpia3-0

Independiente Medellin

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
22 Jul 2026H Vasco DA Gama2-2
Best odds for this sectionVasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Independiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Vasco DA Gama's recent form is strong with 10 points and consistent scoring, averaging 2.2 goals per game and a 100% Over 2.5 rate. Independiente Medellin's form is weaker in points but maintains a 100% Over 2.5 rate, indicating matches remain open and goal-rich despite results.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Vasco DA Gama wins
1Draws
0Independiente Medellin wins
22 Jul 2026Independiente Medellin v Vasco DA Gama2-2
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Independiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
The single previous encounter between Vasco DA Gama and Independiente Medellin featured 4 goals, indicating an open and attacking match-up. While the sample is limited, this supports the Over 2.5 Goals selection as a reasonable expectation.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Vasco DA Gama7
Played
Independiente Medellin1
Vasco DA Gama1.7
Avg goals for
Independiente Medellin2
Vasco DA Gama1.1
Avg goals against
Independiente Medellin2
Vasco DA Gama3
Clean sheets
Independiente Medellin0
Best odds for this sectionVasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Independiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Season-long data shows Vasco DA Gama scoring 2.2 goals and conceding 1.2 per game, reflecting an attacking style with some defensive vulnerability. Independiente Medellin scores 2.0 but concedes 2.0, suggesting open games with defensive gaps that favor Over 2.5 Goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Vasco DA Gama1063124
Vasco DA Gama ranks 2nd in the competition with 10 points, indicating strong performance and motivation to maintain position. Independiente Medellin's ranking is unavailable, but their offensive stats suggest a focus on attack despite defensive frailties, adding to the likelihood of goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
100%Independiente Medellin Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
In the last meeting between these teams, 4 goals were scored, supporting a high-scoring trend. Both teams have maintained a 100% Over 2.5 rate in recent matches, reinforcing expectations of a fast-paced game with multiple goals.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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