Football Stats Hub

Santos crestSantos
v
UCV crestUCV

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Wed 29 Jul, 01:30

Santos v UCV Stats

Data last updated: Tue 28 Jul 2026, 05:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

UCV and Santos face off in the first leg of their Copa Sudamericana knockout tie in Valencia, with both sides navigating squad changes and key absences. UCV have rebuilt significantly after losing seven players, including their top continental scorer, yet maintain a strong home scoring threat through structured 4-3-3 play and effective counterattacks. Santos, missing stars Neymar and Gabigol, rely on possession control and high shot volume but have struggled to convert control into away wins recently. This tactical clash between UCV's compact defense and Santos' territorial control sets the stage for a tense, open contest where both teams are likely to find the net.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • UCV have scored in all of their last five matches, showing consistent home attacking threat.
  • Santos average 12.42 shots and 97.58 total attacks per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.
  • Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities recently, with only one clean sheet each in their last five matches.
  • The tactical contrast: UCV's compact 4-3-3 and quick transitions versus Santos' possession-based approach.
  • Recent form and squad changes suggest an open game with scoring opportunities for both sides.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance for both teams to score, reflecting strong attacking consistency from UCV and Santos despite defensive lapses. UCV's high shot volume inside the box and Santos' superior possession and shot creation support the likelihood of goals at both ends. The price offers positive value with a 23.6% edge, making BTTS a compelling selection. The absence of key Santos forwards slightly tempers their scoring certainty but does not negate their overall offensive threat. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance76%
Strong positive
Implied Odds Chance52.4%
Positive
Value Edge23.6%
Strong positive
Recent Scoring FormHigh BTTS rates for both teams
Strong positive
Squad Changes ImpactModerate, but attacking threat remains
Neutral
Main risk

A 1-1 draw fits the cautious, risk-averse nature of first-leg knockout ties.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“This fixture's tactical contrast and recent scoring patterns strongly suggest both sides will breach each other's defenses. Despite Santos missing key forwards, their attacking volume and UCV's home scoring consistency make BTTS a logical and data-backed choice.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

UCV have scored in all of their last five matches, showing consistent home attacking threat.

Santos average 12.42 shots and 97.58 total attacks per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.

Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities recently, with only one clean sheet each in their last five matches.

The tactical contrast: UCV's compact 4-3-3 and quick transitions versus Santos' possession-based approach.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last five matches, Santos have a 60% rate of games with over 2.5 goals, and UCV have a 100% rate, with their only previous meeting producing 5 goals.
  • This trend suggests a high-tempo game with multiple scoring opportunities, reinforcing the BTTS and potential for goals over 2.5.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Santos2.2
Avg goals scored
UCV1
Santos1
Avg goals conceded
UCV4
Santos80%
BTTS rate
UCV100%
Santos60%
Over 2.5 goals
UCV100%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both UCV and Santos have scored in all of their last five matches, with UCV generating 55% of shots inside the penalty area and Santos averaging over 12 shots per game. Defensive frailties on both sides and tactical openness suggest multiple scoring chances, supporting the BTTS selection.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
UCV Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 32%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Santos to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
UCV to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
10
Check odds @ 10
Santos Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
6
Check odds @ 6
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at 1.91, reflecting an implied chance of 52.4%, while the model estimates a 76% probability. This significant of 23.6% indicates the market underestimates the likelihood of both teams scoring, making the bet a positive value opportunity without price warnings.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Santos4
Avg corners for
UCV2
Santos8.2
Avg total corners
UCV8
Santos2.4
Avg yellow cards
UCV2
Santos13
Avg shots
UCV8
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 29%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Santos average 4 corners and 2.4 yellow cards per game, reflecting active territorial pressure and fouling in midfield battles. UCV average fewer corners and cards but maintain a high shot accuracy. The combination of sustained pressure and fouling intensity creates a dynamic match environment conducive to goals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Santos

WWDDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 1L
22 Jul 2026A UCV4-1
27 May 2026H Deportivo Cuenca3-0
20 May 2026H San Lorenzo2-2
06 May 2026A Deportivo Recoleta1-1
28 Apr 2026A San Lorenzo1-1

UCV

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
22 Jul 2026H Santos1-4
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Load more odds for this section
UCV Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 32%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.06
Check odds @ 1.06
Santos to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
UCV to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
10
Check odds @ 10
Santos Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
6
Check odds @ 6
Recent form data shows Santos scoring 2.2 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate, while UCV score 1 goal per game with a 100% BTTS rate. Both teams have conceded goals regularly, reinforcing the expectation of goals at both ends in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Santos wins
0Draws
0UCV wins
22 Jul 2026UCV v Santos1-4
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Santos to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
UCV to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
10
Check odds @ 10
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
6
Check odds @ 6
The single previous meeting between these teams featured 5 goals, indicating an open and attacking contest. While limited, this head-to-head supports the expectation of goals from both sides, aligning with the BTTS selection.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Santos7
Played
UCV1
Santos1.7
Avg goals for
UCV1
Santos1
Avg goals against
UCV4
Santos1
Clean sheets
UCV0
Best odds for this sectionUCV Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Load more odds for this section
Santos to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
UCV to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
10
Check odds @ 10
Santos Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Season-long statistics reveal Santos' superior passing volume and shot creation, averaging 417.69 passes and 12.42 shots per match, contrasting with UCV's more direct approach but consistent scoring inside the box. Both teams' defensive records show vulnerabilities that contribute to the BTTS likelihood.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Santos761412
Santos currently rank 2nd in their domestic competition, indicating strong overall quality, while UCV's continental performance reflects resilience despite squad turnover. The standings provide context but the knockout nature and squad changes make tactical and form factors more decisive here.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Santos Over 2.5
100%UCV Over 2.5
5H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Santos have a 60% rate of games with over 2.5 goals, and UCV have a 100% rate, with their only previous meeting producing 5 goals. This trend suggests a high-tempo game with multiple scoring opportunities, reinforcing the BTTS and potential for goals over 2.5.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Santos v UCV prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Tigre v Club NacionalCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Tue 28 Jul 23:00Vasco DA Gama v Independiente MedellinCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Wed 29 Jul 23:00Sao Paulo v SantosSerie A · Wed 29 Jul 21:00

Competition and hubs

Santos v UCV predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre