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Chapecoense-sc crestChapecoense-sc
v
Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama

Serie A | Wed 29 Jul, 21:00

Chapecoense-sc v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Data last updated: Tue 28 Jul 2026, 05:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama meet in a Serie A clash where both teams have struggled offensively and defensively this season. Vasco DA Gama currently sits 17th with 21 points, while Chapecoense-sc's standing is unlisted but their recent form shows defensive vulnerabilities. Both sides have low scoring averages and cautious attacking approaches, suggesting a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities. The match is likely to be tight and low scoring, with both teams prioritizing defensive solidity over expansive offense.

BT4Y match pick

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Chapecoense-sc concedes an average of 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty but limited scoring ability with 0.6 goals per match.
  • Vasco DA Gama averages only 0.4 goals per game and concedes 2 goals, reflecting a low-scoring trend.
  • Both teams have a moderate over 2.5 goals rate (Chapecoense-sc 60%, Vasco DA Gama 40%), but recent form favors fewer goals.
  • Average shots per game are low for Chapecoense-sc (10.2) and moderate for Vasco DA Gama (17.2), with shots on target also subdued.
  • Head-to-head matches average 2 goals per game, supporting a lower scoring expectation in this fixture.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 54.1% chance based on both teams' low scoring averages and defensive records. Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama show limited offensive threat, with low shots on target and goal production. The head-to-head average of 2 goals per match and recent form data reinforce a cautious game likely to produce fewer goals. The absence of data limitations adds to this selection, making Under 2.5 Goals a reasonable expectation for this encounter.

Low scoring averagesChapecoense-sc 0.6, Vasco DA Gama 0.4 goals per game
Strong positive
Defensive concessionsChapecoense-sc 2.2, Vasco DA Gama 2 goals per game
Positive
Shots and shots on targetLow to moderate, limiting goal chances
Positive
Head-to-head average goals2 goals per match over 10 games
Positive
Data qualityNo limited data concerns
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is the tactical and statistical choice here, as both Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama have struggled to consistently score while conceding regularly. The low offensive output combined with defensive caution points to a match with limited goal-scoring opportunities. This bet aligns with the teams' recent form and head-to-head trends, making it a sensible selection for a tight contest.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring and tactical caution

“This fixture features two teams with limited attacking firepower and defensive vulnerabilities that have not translated into high scoring. The Under 2.5 Goals bet reflects the tactical caution and low shot quality expected, making it a prudent market to consider.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Chapecoense-sc concedes an average of 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty but limited scoring ability with 0.6 goals per match.

Vasco DA Gama averages only 0.4 goals per game and concedes 2 goals, reflecting a low-scoring trend.

Average shots per game are low for Chapecoense-sc (10.2) and moderate for Vasco DA Gama (17.2), with shots on target also subdued.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating a trend toward low-scoring games.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and defensive setup that limits goal opportunities, reinforcing the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Chapecoense-sc3.33
Avg corners for
Vasco DA Gama3.75
Chapecoense-sc10.67
Avg total corners
Vasco DA Gama7.75
Chapecoense-sc1.33
Avg yellow cards
Vasco DA Gama1
Chapecoense-sc11
Avg shots
Vasco DA Gama16.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 49% vs implied 56% · edge -6.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Vasco DA Gama averages more shots (17.2) and corners (4.8) than Chapecoense-sc, indicating slightly more attacking pressure. However, both teams maintain low shots on target (3 and 4.8 respectively) and modest card counts, suggesting a game with moderate territorial battles but limited high-quality chances and disciplined play.

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Useful next reads

Serie A hubcorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Chapecoense-sc0.6
Avg goals scored
Vasco DA Gama0.4
Chapecoense-sc2.2
Avg goals conceded
Vasco DA Gama2
Chapecoense-sc40%
BTTS rate
Vasco DA Gama40%
Chapecoense-sc60%
Over 2.5 goals
Vasco DA Gama40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 56% · edge -1.5 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams have low goal averages and a 40% BTTS rate, suggesting matches often end with one or no team scoring. Chapecoense-sc's higher over 2.5 rate is tempered by Vasco DA Gama's more defensive approach. The head-to-head average of 2 goals supports a low-scoring game with limited BTTS likelihood.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionChapecoense-sc to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +14.1 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced with moderate , reflecting the model's 54.1% chance. The appear fair given the teams' low scoring and defensive records. There is no price warning, indicating the market aligns well with statistical expectations, though the bet is not a strong value play due to the moderate level.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Chapecoense-sc

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 8L
25 Jul 2026A Santos2-2
23 Jul 2026H Flamengo0-4
17 Jul 2026A Bahia0-2
31 May 2026A Palmeiras0-1
24 May 2026A Cruzeiro1-2

Vasco DA Gama

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
26 Jul 2026H Mirassol1-1
16 Jul 2026A Vitoria0-1
31 May 2026H Atletico-MG0-1
25 May 2026H RB Bragantino0-3
16 May 2026A Internacional1-4
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +13.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Recent form data shows both teams averaging below one goal per game and conceding around two, reinforcing a trend of low-scoring matches. Chapecoense-sc's 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Vasco DA Gama's 40%, but overall recent results favor cautious play and defensive focus, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals selection.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Chapecoense-sc wins
7Draws
2Vasco DA Gama wins
05 Feb 2026Vasco DA Gama v Chapecoense-sc1-1
31 Jul 2022Vasco DA Gama v Chapecoense-sc0-0
23 Apr 2022Chapecoense-sc v Vasco DA Gama0-0
08 Dec 2019Vasco DA Gama v Chapecoense-SC1-1
14 Sep 2019Chapecoense-SC v Vasco DA Gama1-2
26 Aug 2018Vasco DA Gama v Chapecoense-sc3-1
Best odds for this sectionChapecoense-sc to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +14.1 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The 10 previous meetings between Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama have averaged 2 goals per game, indicating a consistent pattern of low scoring. This historical trend supports expectations for a cautious, defensively oriented match with limited goal-scoring chances, aligning well with the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Season team stats

Serie A

Chapecoense-sc20
Played
Vasco DA Gama20
Chapecoense-sc1
Avg goals for
Vasco DA Gama1.2
Chapecoense-sc2.1
Avg goals against
Vasco DA Gama1.6
Chapecoense-sc1
Clean sheets
Vasco DA Gama1
Best odds for this sectionChapecoense-sc to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +14.1 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Season-long statistics reveal both teams have struggled offensively, with Chapecoense-sc scoring 0.6 and Vasco DA Gama 0.4 goals per game. Defensive frailties exist but have not translated into high scoring matches. These profiles align with a low total goals expectation, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
17Vasco DA Gama2120569-8
Vasco DA Gama's 17th place with 21 points reflects pressure to avoid relegation, likely encouraging defensive caution. Chapecoense-sc's unlisted rank limits direct table impact analysis, but both teams' positions suggest a cautious approach to avoid costly mistakes, supporting a low-scoring, tight contest.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Chapecoense-sc Over 2.5
40%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating a trend toward low-scoring games. This sample suggests a tempo and defensive setup that limits goal opportunities, reinforcing the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

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