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Valerenga crestValerenga
v
Fredrikstad crestFredrikstad

Eliteserien | Sun 20 Sep, 13:30

Valerenga v Fredrikstad Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Eliteserien clash sees Fredrikstad travel to face Valerenga, with Fredrikstad currently holding a stronger recent form and sitting higher in the league standings. Fredrikstad have accumulated 10 points recently, showing defensive solidity by conceding just 0.8 goals per game, compared to Valerenga's leaky defense allowing 3 goals per match. Valerenga's attacking output is higher, but their defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistent results create an opportunity for Fredrikstad to capitalize on counter-attacks and disciplined defending in this mid-table encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Fredrikstad to Win

  • Fredrikstad have earned 10 points recently versus Valerenga's 2 points in the same period.
  • Fredrikstad concede only 0.8 goals per game, showcasing defensive strength.
  • Valerenga's defense concedes 3 goals per match, indicating vulnerability.
  • Fredrikstad rank 7th with 27 points, Valerenga 12th with 22 points.
  • Fredrikstad's recent form and defensive record suggest a strong chance for an away win.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Fredrikstad's of 70% to win is supported by their superior recent form, conceding fewer goals and accumulating more points than Valerenga. Despite Valerenga's higher attacking numbers, their defensive frailties and lower league position reduce their likelihood of victory. The at 3.6 offer positive value given the implied chance is only 27.8%. This pick is a solid data-backed choice with a clear football rationale based on defensive stability and momentum.

Recent form pointsFredrikstad 10 vs Valerenga 2
Strong positive
Defensive recordFredrikstad concede 0.8 goals/game vs Valerenga 3
Strong positive
League positionFredrikstad 7th vs Valerenga 12th
Positive
Implied chance vs model chance27.8% vs 70%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fredrikstad's disciplined defense and recent points haul make them a tactically sound pick to win this match. Their ability to limit goals conceded contrasts with Valerenga's defensive struggles, providing a strong data-driven reason to expect an away victory in this Eliteserien fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based rationale for Fredrikstad to win

“Fredrikstad's defensive resilience and recent momentum position them well to exploit Valerenga's defensive weaknesses, making an away win a compelling prospect in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Fredrikstad to Win evidence

Fredrikstad have earned 10 points recently versus Valerenga's 2 points in the same period.

Fredrikstad concede only 0.8 goals per game, showcasing defensive strength.

Valerenga's defense concedes 3 goals per match, indicating vulnerability.

Fredrikstad rank 7th with 27 points, Valerenga 12th with 22 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Fredrikstad to Win notes

  • In the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.25, suggesting moderately open games.
  • Valerenga's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Fredrikstad's more cautious 40%, indicating a match that could see goal opportunities but also tactical defensive play, consistent with an away win scenario favoring Fredrikstad.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Valerenga2.2
Avg goals scored
Fredrikstad1.6
Valerenga3
Avg goals conceded
Fredrikstad0.8
Valerenga80%
BTTS rate
Fredrikstad60%
Valerenga80%
Over 2.5 goals
Fredrikstad40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Valerenga's matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals and 80% BTTS, indicating open games with goals at both ends. Fredrikstad's lower over 2.5 rate (40%) and 60% BTTS suggest a more cautious approach. This contrast suggests a potential for goals but also defensive discipline from Fredrikstad, aligning with an away win in a competitive game.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFredrikstad to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Fredrikstad Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The of 3.6 for a Fredrikstad win reflect a market underestimation of their 70% , indicating clear positive value. The price is attractive given Fredrikstad's superior recent form and defensive solidity, making this a price-sensitive but worthwhile bet to consider with standard staking.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Valerenga6.4
Avg corners for
Fredrikstad3.6
Valerenga13
Avg total corners
Fredrikstad10.4
Valerenga2
Avg yellow cards
Fredrikstad1.4
Valerenga16.8
Avg shots
Fredrikstad11.8

No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Valerenga

LDLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
12 Sep 2026A Lillestrom0-2
06 Sep 2026A Sarpsborg 08 FF2-2
30 Aug 2026H Molde3-4
16 Aug 2026A Aalesund5-5
08 Aug 2026H Bodo/Glimt1-2

Fredrikstad

DLWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
13 Sep 2026H Sarpsborg 08 FF1-1
04 Sep 2026H Bodo/Glimt1-2
30 Aug 2026A Lillestrom4-1
16 Aug 2026H Kristiansund BK1-0
08 Aug 2026A Start1-0
Market aligned with main pickFredrikstad to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Fredrikstad Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Fredrikstad have collected 10 points recently, showing consistent form and defensive strength by conceding only 0.8 goals per game. Valerenga's recent form is poor with just 2 points and a leaky defense conceding 3 goals per match. This form disparity underpins Fredrikstad's strong chance to secure an away win in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Valerenga wins
3Draws
3Fredrikstad wins
04 Jul 2026Valerenga v Fredrikstad3-1
12 Apr 2026Fredrikstad v Valerenga1-1
23 Sep 2025Valerenga v Fredrikstad1-2
05 Jul 2025Valerenga v Fredrikstad1-1
09 Apr 2025Fredrikstad v Valerenga2-0
06 Oct 2024Valerenga v Fredrikstad0-0
Market aligned with main pickFredrikstad to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The eight previous meetings between these teams have averaged 2.25 goals per game, showing a moderate scoring trend. While the sample is limited, past results suggest competitive encounters with no overwhelming control, meaning current form and defensive solidity are more decisive for this match outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Eliteserien

Valerenga20
Played
Fredrikstad20
Valerenga1.7
Avg goals for
Fredrikstad1.2
Valerenga2.1
Avg goals against
Fredrikstad1.6
Valerenga2
Clean sheets
Fredrikstad3
Market aligned with main pickFredrikstad to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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Fredrikstad Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over the season, Fredrikstad have demonstrated defensive resilience, conceding fewer goals and maintaining a solid points tally, while Valerenga's higher goals conceded and lower points reflect defensive issues. Fredrikstad's steadier season performance supports the likelihood of an away victory against a defensively vulnerable Valerenga side.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Fredrikstad2720839-7
12Valerenga22206410-9
Fredrikstad's 7th place with 27 points contrasts with Valerenga's 12th place and 22 points, indicating a stronger overall campaign. While not a title decider, the league positions reflect Fredrikstad's better consistency and form, adding context to their favored status in this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Valerenga Over 2.5
40%Fredrikstad Over 2.5
2.25H2H avg goals
In the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.25, suggesting moderately open games. Valerenga's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Fredrikstad's more cautious 40%, indicating a match that could see goal opportunities but also tactical defensive play, consistent with an away win scenario favoring Fredrikstad.

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Prediction context

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