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Union St. Gilloise crestUnion St. Gilloise
v
Lommel United crestLommel United

Jupiler Pro League | Sat 12 Sep, 19:45

Union St. Gilloise v Lommel United Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gilloise host Lommel United in a Jupiler Pro League clash where the home side currently ranks second with 13 points, showing strong attacking form, while Lommel United sit ninth with 7 points. Gilloise have been prolific, averaging 2.8 goals per game and maintaining a solid defensive record, but Lommel United's resilience and tactical discipline make them a tough opponent. Lommel United's recent performances suggest they can avoid defeat here, making this a contest where the away side's draw no bet option carries appeal amid the home side's attacking threat and the away side's defensive solidity.

BT4Y best bet

Lommel United Draw No Bet

  • Lommel United offers 25.3% on Draw No Bet at 6.0
  • Gilloise average 2.8 goals per game, Lommel United 1.2
  • Gilloise concede only 0.6 goals per game, same as Lommel United
  • Gilloise take 14.4 shots per game vs Lommel's 10.2, but Lommel's defensive discipline is strong
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.8 over last 10 matches, indicating moderate scoring

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Lommel United Draw No Bet due to the significant value in the compared to the implied chance. Gilloise's superior attacking stats and league position, Lommel United's defensive resilience and ability to avoid defeat in recent matches underpin this pick. The 25.3% reflects the market underestimating Lommel's chances to at least draw, supported by their low goals conceded and tactical discipline. This pick balances the home side's offensive threat with the away side's capacity to secure a draw or better.

Value Edge+25.3%
Strong positive
Model Chance vs Implied Chance42% vs 16.7%
Strong positive
Lommel Defensive Record0.6 goals conceded per game
Positive
Union St. Gilloise Attack2.8 goals per game
Neutral
Confidence Level71%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lommel United's defensive discipline and ability to avoid defeat make the Draw No Bet selection a tactically sound choice against a high-scoring Union St. The data shows Lommel's resilience and the value in the justifies backing them to at least secure a point in this competitive fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and value insight

“Lommel United's defensive solidity and tactical organization provide a strong foundation to withstand Union St. Gilloise's attacking pressure, making the Draw No Bet market an appealing option given the value on offer.”

Key Data Signals

Lommel United Draw No Bet evidence

Lommel United offers 25.3% on Draw No Bet at 6.0

Gilloise average 2.8 goals per game, Lommel United 1.2

Gilloise concede only 0.6 goals per game, same as Lommel United

Gilloise take 14.4 shots per game vs Lommel's 10.2, but Lommel's defensive discipline is strong

What To Watch In The Data

Lommel United Draw No Bet notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating a moderately open game.
  • However, Lommel United's low BTTS rate and defensive discipline suggest the match may feature controlled scoring, with tempo and transitions playing a key role in goal opportunities.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Union St. Gilloise5.2
Avg corners for
Lommel United3
Union St. Gilloise8.8
Avg total corners
Lommel United11
Union St. Gilloise2
Avg yellow cards
Lommel United1
Union St. Gilloise14.4
Avg shots
Lommel United10.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
Gilloise dominate shots (14.4 per game) and corners (5.2 per game) compared to Lommel United's 10.2 shots and 3 corners, indicating territorial advantage. However, Lommel's lower yellow card average (1 vs 2) reflects disciplined defending, which could limit Union's chances despite pressure and set-piece opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Union St. Gilloise2.8
Avg goals scored
Lommel United1.2
Union St. Gilloise0.6
Avg goals conceded
Lommel United0.6
Union St. Gilloise40%
BTTS rate
Lommel United20%
Union St. Gilloise80%
Over 2.5 goals
Lommel United20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 37% · edge +13.5 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Goal scoring is skewed towards Union St. Gilloise, who average 2.8 goals per game, while Lommel United average 1.2. Both teams to score rates are low for Lommel at 20%, suggesting a controlled scoring environment favoring fewer goals and a likely clean sheet for Lommel, supporting a cautious goals market.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLommel United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts
6
Check odds @ 6
Load more odds for this section
Lommel United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
10
Check odds @ 10
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The Lommel United Draw No Bet market is priced attractively with of 6.0, reflecting a significant of 25.3%. The market currently underestimates Lommel's chances to avoid defeat despite Union St. Gilloise's superior attack, making this a price-sensitive but positive value angle to consider.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Union St. Gilloise

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 0L
05 Sep 2026A Charleroi3-2
02 Sep 2026A St. Truiden3-0
30 Aug 2026H Anderlecht3-0
15 Aug 2026H Zulte Waregem0-0
08 Aug 2026A KVC Westerlo5-1

Lommel United

LWWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 2L
04 Sep 2026H Club Brugge KV0-1
29 Aug 2026A Cercle Brugge1-0
23 Aug 2026H KVC Westerlo4-0
16 Aug 2026H Charleroi0-1
08 Aug 2026A St. Truiden1-1
Market aligned with main pickLommel United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts
6
Check odds @ 6
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Lommel United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
10
Check odds @ 10
Gilloise have accumulated 13 points with a high goal output of 2.8 per game, showing strong recent form. Lommel United have 7 points and a more conservative scoring rate of 1.2 goals per game but maintain a solid defensive record with only 0.6 goals conceded per match, indicating recent form favoring a resilient away performance.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Union St. Gilloise wins
3Draws
0Lommel United wins
11 Apr 2021Lommel United v Union St. Gilloise0-2
27 Feb 2021Union St. Gilloise v Lommel United3-2
13 Dec 2020Lommel United v Union St. Gilloise0-1
04 Oct 2020Union St. Gilloise v Lommel United4-2
26 Jan 2020Union St. Gilloise v Lommel United2-2
23 Nov 2019Lommel United v Union St. Gilloise0-0
Market aligned with main pickLommel United to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 23% vs implied 10% · edge +13 pts
10
Check odds @ 10
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 2.8 goals per game, reflecting competitive encounters. Gilloise have the attacking edge historically, Lommel United's defensive resilience in these meetings supports the likelihood of a close contest and validates the Draw No Bet angle.
Season team stats

Jupiler Pro League

Union St. Gilloise5
Played
Lommel United5
Union St. Gilloise2.8
Avg goals for
Lommel United1.2
Union St. Gilloise0.6
Avg goals against
Lommel United0.6
Union St. Gilloise3
Clean sheets
Lommel United2
Market aligned with main pickLommel United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts
6
Check odds @ 6
Load more odds for this section
Lommel United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
10
Check odds @ 10
Season-long stats highlight Union St. Gilloise's potent attack and sturdy defense, conceding just 0.6 goals per game. Lommel United mirror this defensive solidity but have a less effective offense. This contrast supports the Draw No Bet on Lommel United as they can likely contain Union's attack while posing a threat on the counter.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Union St. Gilloise13541011
9Lommel United752123
Gilloise's second-place standing reflects their strong season start, while Lommel United's ninth position shows mid-table stability. The league context suggests Union are favorites but Lommel's position indicates capability to challenge and avoid defeat, making the Draw No Bet a reasonable hedge against the home side's quality.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Union St. Gilloise Over 2.5
20%Lommel United Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating a moderately open game. However, Lommel United's low BTTS rate and defensive discipline suggest the match may feature controlled scoring, with tempo and transitions playing a key role in goal opportunities.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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