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OH Leuven crestOH Leuven
v
Cercle Brugge crestCercle Brugge

Jupiler Pro League | Sat 12 Sep, 19:45

OH Leuven v Cercle Brugge Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Jupiler Pro League fixture features OH Leuven hosting Cercle Brugge, with Cercle Brugge holding a slight edge in recent form and league position. Cercle Brugge have shown more attacking intent, averaging a higher number of shots and shots on target per game, while OH Leuven have struggled defensively, conceding more goals on average. Both teams have experienced mixed results early in the season, but Cercle Brugge's ability to create chances and maintain defensive solidity suggests they can capitalize on Leuven's vulnerabilities in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Cercle Brugge to Win

  • Cercle Brugge have a 56% to win, with positive value at 2.5 .
  • OH Leuven concede 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Cercle Brugge average 18 shots and 4.67 shots on target per match, showing attacking pressure.
  • Both teams have a moderate BTTS rate of 40%, suggesting some defensive caution.
  • Cercle Brugge rank higher in the league and have earned 2 points compared to Leuven's 0.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Cercle Brugge to win due to their superior attacking metrics and more stable defensive record compared to OH Leuven. Cercle Brugge's higher shot volume and shots on target per game reflect greater offensive threat, while Leuven's defensive struggles increase the likelihood of conceding. The offer positive value with a 16% edge, making this a sensible pick based on current form and statistical indicators. Data quality is solid for both teams, supporting in this selection.

Model Win Probability56%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance40%
Strong positive
Goal Concession Rate (OH Leuven)2.4 per game
Positive
Shots on Target (Cercle Brugge)4.67 per game
Strong positive
Value Edge16%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cercle Brugge's more consistent attacking output and relatively better defensive record make them the tactical and statistical favorite to secure victory. Their ability to generate more shots and limit opposition chances aligns with the model's in their win probability, making this a well-supported selection for the fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Cercle Brugge's higher shot volume and defensive resilience position them well to exploit OH Leuven's defensive weaknesses, making them the logical choice for a win in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Cercle Brugge to Win evidence

Cercle Brugge have a 56% to win, with positive value at 2.5 .

OH Leuven concede 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Cercle Brugge average 18 shots and 4.67 shots on target per match, showing attacking pressure.

Both teams have a moderate BTTS rate of 40%, suggesting some defensive caution.

What To Watch In The Data

Cercle Brugge to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, suggesting a moderately open game with goal-scoring opportunities.
  • Both teams have shown tendencies for matches exceeding 2.5 goals, especially OH Leuven with an 80% over 2.5 rate, indicating potential for a lively encounter with multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

OH Leuven0.4
Avg goals scored
Cercle Brugge1
OH Leuven2.4
Avg goals conceded
Cercle Brugge2
OH Leuven40%
BTTS rate
Cercle Brugge40%
OH Leuven80%
Over 2.5 goals
Cercle Brugge60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 84% vs implied 85% · edge -0.5 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, indicating moderate likelihood of both sides scoring. OH Leuven's high goals conceded per game (2.4) contrasts with Cercle Brugge's more balanced defense, suggesting goals may come but not necessarily from both teams equally, pointing to a potentially competitive but not high-scoring match.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCercle Brugge to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Cercle Brugge Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The at 2.5 for Cercle Brugge to win reflect a market underestimation of their 56% , indicating positive value. This price sensitivity suggests that backing Cercle Brugge offers a good risk-reward balance given their statistical superiority and recent performances.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

OH Leuven3.6
Avg corners for
Cercle Brugge8.4
OH Leuven12
Avg total corners
Cercle Brugge13
OH Leuven1.6
Avg yellow cards
Cercle Brugge1
OH Leuven14.4
Avg shots
Cercle Brugge16.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Cercle Brugge average over twice as many corners as OH Leuven (8.33 vs 3.6), reflecting territorial control and sustained attacking pressure. Lower yellow card averages for Cercle Brugge (0.67) compared to Leuven (1.6) suggest better discipline, which may help maintain control and reduce risky fouls in key areas.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

OH Leuven

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 5L
06 Sep 2026A SK Beveren0-3
03 Sep 2026A Gent0-1
29 Aug 2026H Standard Liege1-2
15 Aug 2026H Club Brugge KV0-3
09 Aug 2026A Charleroi1-3

Cercle Brugge

LLLDD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 3L
06 Sep 2026H Gent0-3
29 Aug 2026H Lommel United0-1
23 Aug 2026A Club Brugge KV0-1
14 Aug 2026H St. Truiden3-3
08 Aug 2026A Standard Liege2-2
Market aligned with main pickCercle Brugge to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 81%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Cercle Brugge Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Cercle Brugge have collected 2 points so far, showing more resilience than OH Leuven who have yet to earn points. Cercle Brugge's ability to score more goals per game (1.0) compared to Leuven's 0.4, combined with a tighter defense, reflects a better recent form profile that supports their chances to win this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2OH Leuven wins
3Draws
5Cercle Brugge wins
21 Dec 2025OH Leuven v Cercle Brugge0-2
08 Nov 2025Cercle Brugge v OH Leuven1-2
22 Dec 2024Cercle Brugge v OH Leuven1-0
18 Aug 2024OH Leuven v Cercle Brugge1-1
16 Dec 2023OH Leuven v Cercle Brugge1-2
07 Oct 2023Cercle Brugge v OH Leuven3-2
Market aligned with main pickCercle Brugge to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 10 previous meetings between these teams have averaged 2.6 goals per game, indicating a history of moderately high-scoring matches. While this supports the possibility of goals, the sample does not strongly favor either side, so current form and tactical setups are more decisive for this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Jupiler Pro League

OH Leuven5
Played
Cercle Brugge5
OH Leuven0.4
Avg goals for
Cercle Brugge1
OH Leuven2.4
Avg goals against
Cercle Brugge2
OH Leuven0
Clean sheets
Cercle Brugge0
Market aligned with main pickCercle Brugge to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Cercle Brugge Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over the season, Cercle Brugge demonstrate a more balanced attack and defense, scoring an average of 1 goal per game while conceding 2, compared to OH Leuven's weaker defense conceding 2.4 goals per game. This statistical profile supports Cercle Brugge's likelihood to control the match and secure a win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
14Cercle Brugge25023-5
17OH Leuven05005-10
Cercle Brugge currently sit 14th in the league with 2 points, ahead of OH Leuven who are 17th with no points. While early in the season, this standing reflects Cercle Brugge's slightly better start and adds pressure on Leuven to respond, which may influence the match dynamics.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%OH Leuven Over 2.5
60%Cercle Brugge Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, suggesting a moderately open game with goal-scoring opportunities. Both teams have shown tendencies for matches exceeding 2.5 goals, especially OH Leuven with an 80% over 2.5 rate, indicating potential for a lively encounter with multiple goals.

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Fixture links

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