Football Stats Hub

Toulouse crestToulouse
v
Le Havre crestLe Havre

Ligue 1 | Sat 19 Sep, 19:45

Toulouse v Le Havre Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 21:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Toulouse and Le Havre meet in a Ligue 1 clash where both teams have struggled to find consistent form, each holding just two points early in the season. Toulouse's home performances have been mixed, while Le Havre's away outings show cautious attacking intent. Both sides tend to engage in tactical battles that generate set-piece opportunities, with corner counts often influenced by their pressing and wing play. This fixture promises a contest where territorial skirmishes and repeated wide attacks could lead to a high number of corners, reflecting their current tactical approaches and recent match rhythms.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Toulouse averages 4.25 corners per game, Le Havre 5.25, combining for nearly 10 corners on average.
  • Both teams show balanced attacking and defensive styles that encourage wing play and set-piece chances.
  • Recent matches indicate sustained pressure phases likely to generate multiple corners.
  • Player roles emphasize wide attacking runs and crossing, increasing corner potential.
  • Model projects a 64.8% chance for over 9.5 corners, with a positive of 9.9%.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a strong value bet with a 64.8% chance, well above the implied market chance of 54.9%. Both Toulouse and Le Havre average over 4 corners each per match, reflecting their attacking patterns that favor wing play and set-piece creation. The combined corner average supports the likelihood of surpassing 9.5 corners, reinforced by player roles that generate frequent wide attacks and fouls leading to corners. is high at 76%, indicating a robust statistical foundation for this selection.

Model Chance64.8%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance54.9%
Positive
Value Edge9.9%
Strong positive
Average Corners per Match~9.5 combined
Strong positive
Player Roles & Attacking StyleWide attacks and crossing
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This corner market is appealing due to both teams' tendencies to generate set-piece opportunities through wing play and sustained pressure. Toulouse and Le Havre's combined corner averages and attacking styles suggest a lively contest with frequent wide attacks, making Over 9.5 Corners a tactically and statistically sound choice for this fixture.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market analysis

“The corner count is a key indicator of territorial control and attacking intent here, with both teams favoring wide play that naturally leads to numerous corners. This bet captures the tactical nuances and statistical trends effectively.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Toulouse averages 4.25 corners per game, Le Havre 5.25, combining for nearly 10 corners on average.

Both teams show balanced attacking and defensive styles that encourage wing play and set-piece chances.

Recent matches indicate sustained pressure phases likely to generate multiple corners.

Player roles emphasize wide attacking runs and crossing, increasing corner potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Analysis of the last ten meetings shows an average of 2.8 goals per game, suggesting moderately open matches.
  • While goal totals are moderate, the tempo and tactical setups favor transitions and wing attacks, which often lead to increased corner counts.
  • This trend supports the likelihood of surpassing 9.5 corners in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Toulouse1
Avg goals scored
Le Havre0.5
Toulouse1.75
Avg goals conceded
Le Havre1
Toulouse50%
BTTS rate
Le Havre50%
Toulouse50%
Over 2.5 goals
Le Havre25%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 46% · edge +13.8 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams have modest goal-scoring records and a 50% BTTS rate for Toulouse and 50% for Le Havre, indicating balanced defensive and offensive play. The moderate goal output suggests matches are competitive but not overly open, which often correlates with more set-piece situations like corners rather than high-scoring open play.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionLe Havre Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Le Havre to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Toulouse Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The Over 9.5 Corners market is priced attractively with around 1.82, reflecting a 54.9% implied chance. The model's 64.8% probability indicates clear value, suggesting the market underestimates the frequency of corners given the teams' playing styles and recent data. This makes the selection a positive-value opportunity rather than a mere price-sensitive watch.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Toulouse4.25
Avg corners for
Le Havre5.25
Toulouse8.75
Avg total corners
Le Havre10.25
Toulouse1.25
Avg yellow cards
Le Havre1.75
Toulouse15
Avg shots
Le Havre15
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 56% · edge +9.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Toulouse and Le Havre average 4.25 and 5.25 corners respectively, supported by similar shot volumes (15 per match each) and moderate fouling rates. This combination points to sustained attacking pressure and territorial battles, with fouls and wide play contributing to frequent corner kicks. Card averages are low to moderate, indicating disciplined play that maintains steady game flow and corner generation.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Toulouse

DLDL
Last 50W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 2L
12 Sep 2026A Lorient2-2
03 Sep 2026H Lille0-1
29 Aug 2026A Stade Brestois 292-2
22 Aug 2026H Lyon0-2

Le Havre

DLDL
Last 50W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 2L
12 Sep 2026H Angers0-0
05 Sep 2026H Stade Brestois 291-2
29 Aug 2026A Lyon1-1
23 Aug 2026H Monaco0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Le Havre Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Le Havre to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Toulouse Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Toulouse to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Recent form shows Toulouse and Le Havre averaging around 9.5 corners combined per match, with Toulouse at 4.25 and Le Havre at 5.25. This steady corner production aligns with their tactical approaches and match rhythms, reinforcing in the Over 9.5 Corners selection based on current performance trends.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Toulouse wins
2Draws
3Le Havre wins
15 Feb 2026Le Havre v Toulouse2-1
02 Nov 2025Toulouse v Le Havre0-0
23 Feb 2025Le Havre v Toulouse1-4
15 Sep 2024Toulouse v Le Havre2-0
10 Mar 2024Le Havre v Toulouse1-0
05 Nov 2023Toulouse v Le Havre1-2
Best odds for this sectionLe Havre to WinBetfred guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Toulouse to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The head-to-head sample of ten matches reveals an average of 2.8 goals per game, indicating balanced contests. While goal data is moderate, previous meetings have featured tactical battles with wing play and set-piece opportunities, providing background support for a higher corner count without being the primary driver.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Ligue 1

Toulouse5
Played
Le Havre5
Toulouse1.4
Avg goals for
Le Havre0.8
Toulouse1.8
Avg goals against
Le Havre1.4
Toulouse0
Clean sheets
Le Havre1
Best odds for this sectionLe Havre Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Load more odds for this section
Le Havre to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Toulouse Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Toulouse to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Season-long data confirms both teams maintain corner averages above 4 per game, reflecting attacking patterns favoring wing play and crossing. Defensive setups allow for sustained pressure phases, increasing corner likelihood. These season stats underpin the model's high in the Over 9.5 Corners market for this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
13Toulouse55122-2
18Le Havre25023-3
Toulouse and Le Havre sit close in the Ligue 1 table with 2 points each, indicating a shared urgency to improve results. This competitive context encourages proactive wing play and set-piece creation as both teams seek to break defensive deadlocks, supporting a higher corner count in the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Toulouse Over 2.5
25%Le Havre Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Analysis of the last ten meetings shows an average of 2.8 goals per game, suggesting moderately open matches. While goal totals are moderate, the tempo and tactical setups favor transitions and wing attacks, which often lead to increased corner counts. This trend supports the likelihood of surpassing 9.5 corners in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Auxerre v Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · Sun 20 Sep 14:00Nice v LilleLigue 1 · Sun 20 Sep 16:15Marseille v Paris Saint GermainLigue 1 · Sun 20 Sep 19:45

Competition and hubs

Ligue 1 hubmore Ligue 1 analysiscorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre