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Nice crestNice
v
Lille crestLille

Ligue 1 | Sun 20 Sep, 16:15

Nice v Lille Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lille approach this Ligue 1 clash in strong form, boasting a four-match winning streak and commanding 56% possession, reflecting their tactical control under Bruno Genesio. Nice, struggling with just one win in ten outings and a leaky defense conceding 56 goals, face mounting pressure to secure points. The tactical battle features Lille's high press and wide attacking play against Nice's fragile defense and transition threats. This fixture carries significant stakes, with Lille aiming to consolidate third place and Nice fighting relegation concerns, setting the stage for an intense contest.

BT4Y match pick

Nice Win & Over 2.5 Goals

  • Lille have won their last four Ligue 1 matches, scoring 11 goals in that span.
  • Nice have managed only one win in their last ten league games and conceded 56 goals this season.
  • Lille average 56% possession and 93.67 attacks per match, dominating territorial control.
  • Nice's defense struggles against wing attacks, a key route for Lille's full-backs.
  • Recent form and tactical setup suggest a high-scoring game with Lille likely to win.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Nice Win & Over 2.5 Goals as a plausible outcome given Lille's dominant form and attacking volume, alongside Nice's defensive vulnerabilities. Despite the price being slightly short compared to the model's 9.5% chance, the football context supports a match with multiple goals and a Lille victory. The slight price sensitivity advises cautious staking. No data limitations affect , and the combination of tactical control and recent scoring trends underpins this selection.

Model Chance9.5%
Positive
Implied Odds Chance14.3%
Neutral
Recent FormLille strong, Nice weak
Positive
Defensive RecordsLille solid, Nice fragile
Positive
Price SensitivitySlightly short odds
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lille's tactical control and recent scoring surge make them strong favorites to win this match, while Nice's defensive frailties increase the likelihood of multiple goals. The combination of Lille's form and Nice's struggles supports a Lille victory with over 2.5 goals scored in the game.

Main risk

Their primary threat comes from through balls, but they often struggle to protect leads once they score.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form analysis

“Lille's high possession and attacking width exploit Nice's defensive weaknesses, setting up a game where Lille should dominate and goals are expected from both sides.”

Key Data Signals

Nice Win & Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Lille have won their last four Ligue 1 matches, scoring 11 goals in that span.

Nice have managed only one win in their last ten league games and conceded 56 goals this season.

Lille average 56% possession and 93.67 attacks per match, dominating territorial control.

Nice's defense struggles against wing attacks, a key route for Lille's full-backs.

What To Watch In The Data

Nice Win & Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last ten meetings between these teams, the average goals per game stand at 2.7, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • Recent matches have seen Lille's attacking tempo and volume increase, contributing to over 2.5 goals in several fixtures.
  • This trend, combined with Nice's defensive vulnerabilities, suggests that this match is likely to follow the pattern of multiple goals and an open tempo, supporting the over 2.5 goals angle.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Nice0.25
Avg goals scored
Lille1.75
Nice1.25
Avg goals conceded
Lille0.5
Nice25%
BTTS rate
Lille25%
Nice25%
Over 2.5 goals
Lille25%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 52% · edge +13.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 58%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Despite the combined pick, the BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals context highlights Nice's low scoring rate and Lille's recent clean sheets. However, Lille's attacking volume and Nice's defensive fragility suggest multiple goals are likely, supporting the over 2.5 goals route. The match is expected to feature goals mainly from Lille, with Nice's limited offensive threat reducing the chance of both teams scoring.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Nice

LDLD
Last 50W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 2L
12 Sep 2026A Auxerre0-1
05 Sep 2026H Le Mans1-1
30 Aug 2026A Paris FC0-3
22 Aug 2026H Lorient0-0

Lille

WWDW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
13 Sep 2026H Estac Troyes2-0
03 Sep 2026A Toulouse1-0
28 Aug 2026H Paris Saint Germain2-2
23 Aug 2026A Angers2-0
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 56% · edge -7.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Nice to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Nice Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Lille's recent form is impressive, with 10 points from their last four matches and an average of 1.75 goals scored per game, reflecting their attacking efficiency and defensive solidity, conceding only 0.5 goals on average. In contrast, Nice have struggled, earning just 2 points and scoring 0.25 goals per game while conceding 1.25. This disparity in momentum and output strongly favors Lille to control the match and produce a winning, high-scoring performance.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Lille1043105
18Nice24022-4
Lille currently sit 2nd in Ligue 1, reflecting their consistent form and title challenge, while Nice languish near the relegation zone in 18th place. The standings underscore the gulf in quality and between the teams, with Lille motivated to maintain their position and Nice desperate to improve results. This competitive context supports Lille's favored status and the likelihood of a decisive victory with multiple goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNice to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
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Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Nice Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The market prices Nice Win & Over 2.5 Goals at 6/1, implying a 14.3% chance, which is slightly higher than the model's 9.5% estimate. This suggests the price is somewhat short, reflecting market in Lille's form and attacking prowess. While not a strong value bet, the remain attractive enough to consider with cautious stakes, especially given Lille's recent control and Nice's defensive issues.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Nice6.5
Avg corners for
Lille1.75
Nice9
Avg total corners
Lille7.75
Nice1.25
Avg yellow cards
Lille1.25
Nice12.5
Avg shots
Lille10.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 58% · edge -3.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Lille average fewer corners than Nice but compensate with higher shot volume and accuracy, averaging 10 shots and 6 on target per match compared to Nice's 12 shots and 3.33 on target. Lille's discipline is notable with zero average yellow cards, while Nice average 1.33 yellows, indicating Lille's controlled aggression and Nice's more frequent fouling. This dynamic suggests Lille will create quality chances with fewer fouls and cards, maintaining pressure through efficient shooting rather than set-piece control.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Nice wins
4Draws
2Lille wins
18 Apr 2026Lille v Nice0-0
29 Oct 2025Nice v Lille2-0
17 Jan 2025Lille v Nice2-1
10 Nov 2024Nice v Lille2-2
19 May 2024Lille v Nice2-2
11 Aug 2023Nice v Lille1-1
Market aligned with main pickNice to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The head-to-head record over the last ten matches shows an average of 2.7 goals per game, with Lille generally outperforming Nice. While past results provide some background, current form and tactical setups are more decisive. Lille's recent winning streak and defensive improvements contrast with Nice's struggles, making the historical data a moderate but not definitive support for Lille's expected victory and goal-scoring control.
Season team stats

Ligue 1

Nice4
Played
Lille4
Nice0.3
Avg goals for
Lille1.8
Nice1.3
Avg goals against
Lille0.5
Nice1
Clean sheets
Lille3
Market aligned with main pickNice to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
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Nice Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over the season, Lille have demonstrated a strong attacking profile with 49 goals scored and a disciplined defense yielding only 15 clean sheets, underscoring their balance. Nice's season stats reveal defensive frailty, conceding 56 goals, the highest in the league, and a struggling attack with low goal output. These season-long trends reinforce the expectation of Lille's control and multiple goals in this fixture, aligning with the combined bet on a Lille win and over 2.5 goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Nice Over 2.5
25%Lille Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings between these teams, the average goals per game stand at 2.7, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. Recent matches have seen Lille's attacking tempo and volume increase, contributing to over 2.5 goals in several fixtures. This trend, combined with Nice's defensive vulnerabilities, suggests that this match is likely to follow the pattern of multiple goals and an open tempo, supporting the over 2.5 goals angle.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Nice v Lille prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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