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Nice crestNice
v
Lille crestLille

Ligue 1 | Sun 20 Sep, 16:15

Nice v Lille Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 14:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nice face Lille in Ligue 1 on Sun 20 Sep, 16:15. Lille have conceded only two league goals this season and Berke Ozer has already kept three clean sheets, reinforcing how difficult they have been to break down.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Both Teams To Score NO

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 74%, above the 58% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 1.36, Both Teams To Score NO implies roughly 74%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 58%.
  • Selection: Both Teams To Score NO.
  • Nice show a 25% BTTS rate and Lille show a 25% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Nice average 0.25 goals scored and Lille average 1.75, so both attacking contributions need separating.
Price warning

Both Teams To Score NO is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 74% while the model sits nearer 58% (-15.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Lille Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 1.9.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 58% for Both Teams To Score NO sits against roughly 74% implied by the current price. Nice show a 25% BTTS rate and Lille show a 25% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: Both Teams To Score NO.

Model chance vs price58% model chance against roughly 74% implied
Negative
Nice show a 25% BTTS rate and Lille show a.Visible data support
Positive
Nice average 0.25 goals scored and Lille average 1.75, so.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: Both Teams To Score NO.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: BTTS No is the preferred angle because nice's severe attacking shortage faces Lille's strong defence and away record, making a clean sheet likely. Nice show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Lille show a 25% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Risk Factor: The exact 0-1 scoreline fails if Nice score or Lille score two or more goals.

Main risk

Risk Factor: The exact 0-1 scoreline fails if Nice score or Lille score two or more goals.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score NO evidence

Nice's severe attacking shortage faces Lille's strong defence and away record, making a clean sheet likely.

Nice show a 25% BTTS rate and Lille show a 25% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Nice average 0.25 goals scored and Lille average 1.75, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score NO notes

  • Compare both teams on scoring rate and clean-sheet record before trusting BTTS No.
  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Nice0.25
Avg goals scored
Lille1.75
Nice1.25
Avg goals conceded
Lille0.5
Nice25%
BTTS rate
Lille25%
Nice25%
Over 2.5 goals
Lille25%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 74% · edge -15.3 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 46%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS No does not fully support the current price: Nice concede 1.25 on average and Lille score 1.75, so the clean-sheet route has a data base.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Nice

LDLD
Last 50W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 2L
12 Sep 2026A Auxerre0-1
05 Sep 2026H Le Mans1-1
30 Aug 2026A Paris FC0-3
22 Aug 2026H Lorient0-0

Lille

WWDW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
13 Sep 2026H Estac Troyes2-0
03 Sep 2026A Toulouse1-0
28 Aug 2026H Paris Saint Germain2-2
23 Aug 2026A Angers2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 84% vs implied 75% · edge +8.8 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
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Lille Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Lille to WinBetUK guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Nice Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Nice to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionLille Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Lille to WinBetUK guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 46%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Nice Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Nice to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Lille Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Nice Over 2.5
25%Lille Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Nice sit at 25% and Lille sit at 25% with the H2H average at 2.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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