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Auxerre crestAuxerre
v
Stade Brestois 29 crestStade Brestois 29

Ligue 1 | Sun 20 Sep, 14:00

Auxerre v Stade Brestois 29 Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 meet in a Ligue 1 clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Auxerre has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.75 goals per game, while Stade Brestois 29 has a more balanced profile, scoring 1.5 goals per game and conceding 1.5. Both sides have a 75% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals this season, suggesting an open game with multiple scoring opportunities. The fixture offers a tactical battle between Auxerre's attacking efforts and Stade Brestois 29's more efficient offense, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have a 75% over 2.5 goals match rate this season.
  • Auxerre concedes 2.75 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Stade Brestois 29 averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game.
  • Recent form shows Auxerre scoring 1.25 goals per game and Stade Brestois 29 scoring 1.5.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.3 over the last 10 meetings.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 67.7% chance, significantly above the implied market chance of 55.6%. Both teams have demonstrated attacking potency and defensive lapses, with Auxerre conceding heavily and Stade Brestois 29 maintaining solid offensive output. The high volume of shots and shots on target from both sides supports the likelihood of multiple goals. This combination of attacking pressure and defensive vulnerability creates a favorable environment for a high-scoring match. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation.

Model Chance67.7%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance55.6%
Neutral
Value Edge12.1%
Strong positive
Auxerre Defensive Record2.75 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Stade Brestois 29 Offensive Output1.5 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both teams pushing forward, especially given Auxerre's defensive struggles and Stade Brestois 29's attacking consistency. The data supports a match with multiple goals, making Over 2.5 Goals a sensible choice based on tactical openness and recent scoring trends.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive vulnerabilities

“This fixture features two sides prone to conceding and capable of creating chances, setting up a scenario ripe for goals. Auxerre's porous defense combined with Stade Brestois 29's attacking threat makes Over 2.5 Goals a compelling angle.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have a 75% over 2.5 goals match rate this season.

Auxerre concedes 2.75 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Stade Brestois 29 averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game.

Recent form shows Auxerre scoring 1.25 goals per game and Stade Brestois 29 scoring 1.5.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating moderately open contests historically.
  • Both teams have maintained a 75% over 2.5 goals rate this season, suggesting a continuation of high-tempo, goal-rich games.
  • The trend points to a fixture where attacking play and defensive lapses combine to produce multiple goals.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Auxerre5.5
Avg corners for
Stade Brestois 296.25
Auxerre13.25
Avg total corners
Stade Brestois 298.75
Auxerre1.75
Avg yellow cards
Stade Brestois 291.25
Auxerre12.25
Avg shots
Stade Brestois 2922
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The teams generate a combined average of over 11 corners per game, with Auxerre averaging 5.5 and Stade Brestois 29 6.25, indicating sustained attacking pressure and wide play. Yellow card averages are moderate, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive match, while shot volumes (12.25 for Auxerre and 22 for Stade Brestois 29) underline offensive intent and chances created.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Auxerre1.25
Avg goals scored
Stade Brestois 291.5
Auxerre2.75
Avg goals conceded
Stade Brestois 291.5
Auxerre75%
BTTS rate
Stade Brestois 2975%
Auxerre75%
Over 2.5 goals
Stade Brestois 2975%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 56% · edge +12.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have a 75% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and also a 75% BTTS rate, highlighting their tendency for open games with goals at both ends. Auxerre's defensive frailty and Stade Brestois 29's consistent scoring create a strong foundation for multiple goals and both teams to score in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 56% · edge +12.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Stade Brestois 29 to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Stade Brestois 29 Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Auxerre Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively with a 1.8 reflecting a 55.6% implied chance, while the model estimates a 67.7% probability. This positive of 12.1% indicates the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, making this a price-sensitive opportunity worth backing at standard stakes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Auxerre

WLLL
Last 51W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 3L
12 Sep 2026H Nice1-0
04 Sep 2026A Lyon1-3
29 Aug 2026H Angers1-3
22 Aug 2026A Lens2-5

Stade Brestois 29

LWDD
Last 51W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 1L
13 Sep 2026H Paris Saint Germain0-1
05 Sep 2026A Le Havre2-1
29 Aug 2026H Toulouse2-2
22 Aug 2026A Le Mans2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 83% vs implied 71% · edge +11.1 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Stade Brestois 29 to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Stade Brestois 29 Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Auxerre Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Auxerre to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Recent form data shows Auxerre scoring 1.25 goals per game while conceding 2.75, reflecting defensive weaknesses. Stade Brestois 29 has scored 1.5 goals per game and conceded 1.5, maintaining a balanced but attacking approach. Both teams have maintained a 75% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring encounter based on current momentum.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Auxerre wins
3Draws
5Stade Brestois 29 wins
21 Mar 2026Auxerre v Stade Brestois 293-0
04 Jan 2026Stade Brestois 29 v Auxerre2-0
14 Feb 2025Stade Brestois 29 v Auxerre2-2
27 Sep 2024Auxerre v Stade Brestois 293-0
14 May 2023Stade Brestois 29 v Auxerre1-0
02 Oct 2022Auxerre v Stade Brestois 291-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 56% · edge +12.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Stade Brestois 29 to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Auxerre to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
The last 10 meetings between Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 have averaged 2.3 goals per game, showing a tendency for moderately high-scoring matches. While not overwhelmingly supportive, this historical data aligns with current season trends of both teams favoring open play and goal opportunities, providing useful background context for the Over 2.5 Goals selection.
Season team stats

Ligue 1

Auxerre4
Played
Stade Brestois 294
Auxerre1.3
Avg goals for
Stade Brestois 291.5
Auxerre2.8
Avg goals against
Stade Brestois 291.5
Auxerre1
Clean sheets
Stade Brestois 290
Best odds for this sectionStade Brestois 29 to WinBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Stade Brestois 29 Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Auxerre Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Auxerre to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Season-long statistics reveal Auxerre's defensive struggles with 2.75 goals conceded per game, contrasting with Stade Brestois 29's more balanced defensive record. Both teams average 75% over 2.5 goals matches, confirming a persistent trend of open games with multiple goals. These season profiles support the likelihood of a match featuring several scoring opportunities and goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Stade Brestois 29541210
16Auxerre34103-6
Auxerre sits 15th with 3 points, while Stade Brestois 29 is 7th with 5 points, reflecting differing starts but similar offensive tendencies. The standings suggest Stade Brestois 29 may push for a positive result to consolidate their position, while Auxerre will seek to improve their form, potentially leading to an open and attacking match dynamic.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Auxerre Over 2.5
75%Stade Brestois 29 Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating moderately open contests historically. Both teams have maintained a 75% over 2.5 goals rate this season, suggesting a continuation of high-tempo, goal-rich games. The trend points to a fixture where attacking play and defensive lapses combine to produce multiple goals.

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