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Toronto FC crestToronto FC
v
New England Revolution crestNew England Revolution

Major League Soccer | Sun 16 Aug, 00:30

Toronto FC v New England Revolution Stats

Data last updated: Sun 16 Aug 2026, 05:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

New England Revolution return to Gillette Stadium aiming to consolidate their strong home form, having won seven league matches there this season. They face Toronto FC, who arrive struggling for consistency and defensive stability, conceding an average of two goals per game. New England's efficient attack, led by Carles Gil, contrasts with Toronto's higher attacking volume but defensive vulnerabilities. The match promises a tactical battle between New England's possession control and Toronto's resilience, with both sides likely to find scoring opportunities in a competitive Eastern Conference clash.

BT4Y best bet

New England Revolution to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • New England Revolution have won seven home league matches in 2026, the joint-highest in MLS at this stage.
  • Toronto FC have conceded 29 goals in 15 matches, averaging two goals conceded per game over a wider sample.
  • Both teams have scored in 81% of Toronto's last 16 matches, indicating frequent open games.
  • New England have avoided defeat in ten of their last 11 home league matches when scoring.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates New England Revolution to Win & Both Teams to Score as a strong pick with a 28.5% chance, slightly above the implied 27% . New England's formidable home record and efficient finishing combine with Toronto's consistent scoring but defensive frailties to suggest both teams will score. The balanced attacking profiles and recent form data support a competitive match with multiple goals. No price warning is needed as the fairly reflect the model's , making this a solid betting option.

Home advantageNew England's seven home wins and strong home unbeaten run
Strong positive
Defensive vulnerabilityToronto's average of two goals conceded per game
Positive
Scoring consistencyBoth teams have high BTTS rates, especially Toronto at 81%
Strong positive
Price edgeModel chance (28.5%) slightly exceeds implied odds (27%)
Positive
Main risk

The difficulty is that caution must still include an attacking outlet.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and BTTS

“New England's home control and tactical control paired with Toronto's attacking persistence create a compelling scenario for both teams to score, making this combined bet a well-founded choice.”

Key Data Signals

New England Revolution to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

New England Revolution have won seven home league matches in 2026, the joint-highest in MLS at this stage.

Toronto FC have conceded 29 goals in 15 matches, averaging two goals conceded per game over a wider sample.

Both teams have scored in 81% of Toronto's last 16 matches, indicating frequent open games.

New England have avoided defeat in ten of their last 11 home league matches when scoring.

What To Watch In The Data

New England Revolution to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 1.8, with a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate for both sides.
  • This moderate scoring tempo suggests the match could see multiple goals, especially given New England's home attacking efficiency and Toronto's defensive vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Toronto FC0.6
Avg goals scored
New England Revolution1.2
Toronto FC1
Avg goals conceded
New England Revolution1.2
Toronto FC60%
BTTS rate
New England Revolution40%
Toronto FC40%
Over 2.5 goals
New England Revolution40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 48% · edge +11.3 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have demonstrated consistent scoring, with Toronto's fixtures seeing BTTS in 81% of matches and New England also maintaining a 40% BTTS rate. Their attacking styles and defensive vulnerabilities suggest multiple goals, supporting the expectation that both sides will score in this match.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Toronto FC

DLDDL
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 5D 5L
01 Aug 2026A New York City FC1-1
26 Jul 2026A DC United1-2
23 Jul 2026A New England Revolution0-0
17 Jul 2026A CF Montreal0-0
24 May 2026A Chicago Fire1-2

New England Revolution

LDWDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
08 Aug 2026H Houston Dynamo0-2
02 Aug 2026A CF Montreal2-2
26 Jul 2026H Atlanta United FC4-1
23 Jul 2026H Toronto FC0-0
24 May 2026A Charlotte0-1
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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New England Revolution Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
New England Revolution to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
New England have collected 5 points recently, showing resilience and the ability to win tight matches at home. Toronto's form is weaker with 3 points and a lower goals-for average, reflecting their struggles to convert chances and defensive issues. This contrast highlights New England's momentum and Toronto's challenge to break their winless streak.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3New England Revolution30199374
12Toronto FC2019487-7
New England sit 3rd in the Eastern Conference with 30 points, reflecting consistent performance and home strength. Toronto's 12th place and 17 points highlight their struggles and need for points. The standings emphasize the competitive gap but also the importance of this match for Toronto's fight for stability.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNew England Revolution Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 51% · edge +11.6 pts
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
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New England Revolution to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The of 3.7 for New England Revolution to Win & Both Teams to Score align well with the model's 28.5% chance, indicating a small positive . The price fairly reflects New England's home strength and Toronto's scoring ability, making this a price-sensitive but attractive market without requiring caution.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Toronto FC4.6
Avg corners for
New England Revolution5.4
Toronto FC10.6
Avg total corners
New England Revolution11
Toronto FC2
Avg yellow cards
New England Revolution1.8
Toronto FC11.6
Avg shots
New England Revolution13
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 58% · edge +9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams average similar corner counts (around 3.3-3.5 per game) and shots on target (New England 6, Toronto 4), indicating balanced attacking pressure. Toronto's higher foul rate and New England's disciplined card profile suggest a moderately physical game with controlled aggression and sustained offensive efforts.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Toronto FC wins
4Draws
4New England Revolution wins
23 Jul 2026New England Revolution v Toronto FC0-0
14 Sep 2025New England Revolution v Toronto FC1-1
03 May 2025Toronto FC v New England Revolution0-2
21 Apr 2024Toronto FC v New England Revolution1-0
03 Mar 2024New England Revolution v Toronto FC0-1
25 Jun 2023New England Revolution v Toronto FC2-1
Market aligned with main pickNew England Revolution to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The last ten meetings between New England and Toronto show a balanced record with New England winning three, Toronto two, and five draws. Recent home meetings favor New England's unbeaten run, but Toronto's ability to score at Gillette Stadium tempers expectations. The head-to-head data supports a competitive match with goals from both sides.
Season team stats

Major League Soccer

Toronto FC18
Played
New England Revolution19
Toronto FC1.3
Avg goals for
New England Revolution1.5
Toronto FC1.8
Avg goals against
New England Revolution1.3
Toronto FC3
Clean sheets
New England Revolution4
Market aligned with main pickNew England Revolution Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 51% · edge +11.6 pts
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
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New England Revolution to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
New England's season stats reveal a solid goal difference and efficient scoring, with 22 goals in 14 matches and a strong home defensive record. Toronto's 22 goals scored are offset by 29 conceded in 15 matches, underscoring defensive fragility. These season-long trends underpin the expectation of a New England win with both teams scoring.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Toronto FC Over 2.5
40%New England Revolution Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 1.8, with a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate for both sides. This moderate scoring tempo suggests the match could see multiple goals, especially given New England's home attacking efficiency and Toronto's defensive vulnerabilities.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Toronto FC v New England Revolution prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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