Toronto FC

Nashville SC

Major League Soccer | Thu 10 Sep, 00:30

Toronto FC v Nashville SC Stats

Data last updated: Wed 09 Sep 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nashville SC arrives at this Major League Soccer clash in strong form, leading the league with 53 points and boasting a solid defensive record, conceding just 0.6 goals per game. Toronto FC, positioned 11th with 26 points, has struggled defensively, allowing 2 goals per match on average. Nashville's tactical discipline and attacking efficiency, combined with Toronto's defensive vulnerabilities, set the stage for a competitive encounter with Nashville favored to secure victory away from home.

BT4Y best bet

Nashville SC to Win

Nashville SC leads MLS standings with 53 points, showing consistent winning form.
Toronto FC concedes 2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
Nashville SC averages only 0.6 goals conceded per match, highlighting defensive solidity.
Nashville's top attacker S. Surridge has 13 goals and 1.58 shots on target per 90 minutes.
Morgan averages 3.46 shots on target per 90 but has yet to score this season.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Nashville SC to win with a 64.9% chance, reflecting their league-leading form and defensive strength. Despite a similar attacking output from both teams, Nashville's ability to limit goals conceded (0.6 per game) contrasts sharply with Toronto FC's leaky defense (2 goals conceded per game). This defensive edge combined with Nashville's top scorer S. Surridge's prolific goal threat supports the away win selection. Data quality is robust for both teams, reinforcing in this pick.

Model Win Probability64.9%

Strong positive

Defensive RecordNashville concedes 0.6 goals/game vs Toronto 2.0

Strong positive

Attacking OutputBoth teams average 2.4 goals scored/game

Neutral

Top Scorer ImpactS. Surridge 13 goals, 1.58 SOT/90

Positive

Data QualityComplete data for both teams

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Nashville SC's superior defensive record and league leadership make them the logical choice to win this match. Their ability to contain Toronto FC's attack, which has struggled to convert chances despite high shot volumes, underpins this selection. Nashville's consistent form and key players like S. Surridge provide a tactical and statistical edge likely to secure victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Nashville SC's defensive discipline and clinical finishing set them apart in this matchup, making them the standout pick despite Toronto FC's attacking efforts.”

Key Data Signals

Nashville SC to Win evidence

Nashville SC leads MLS standings with 53 points, showing consistent winning form.

Toronto FC concedes 2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Nashville SC averages only 0.6 goals conceded per match, highlighting defensive solidity.

Nashville's top attacker S. Surridge has 13 goals and 1.58 shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Nashville SC to Win notes

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating a moderately open game with goal-scoring opportunities.
Nashville's matches have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, while Toronto's is higher at 80%, suggesting a trend towards more goals but with Nashville's defense likely to temper the overall scoring in this encounter.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Toronto FC2.4

Avg goals scored

Nashville SC2.4

Toronto FC2

Avg goals conceded

Nashville SC0.6

Toronto FC100%

BTTS rate

Nashville SC40%

Toronto FC80%

Over 2.5 goals

Nashville SC60%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 80%

1.2

Check odds @ 1.2

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Both teams average 2.4 goals scored per game, but Toronto FC has a 100% BTTS rate compared to Nashville's 40%. This suggests Toronto's matches are more open and high-scoring, while Nashville's defensive solidity may limit goals conceded. The goal trend indicates a moderately open game but with Nashville likely to keep the scoreline controlled.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNashville SC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

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Nashville SC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

The for Nashville SC to win reflect a significant value opportunity, with the model assigning a 64.9% chance compared to an implied market chance of 44.4%. This discrepancy highlights the market underestimating Nashville's form and defensive strength, making the away win a positive value bet without price sensitivity concerns.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Toronto FC3

Avg corners for

Nashville SC7.67

Toronto FC9

Avg total corners

Nashville SC12.33

Toronto FC1.5

Avg yellow cards

Nashville SC2.33

Toronto FC10.5

Avg shots

Nashville SC14

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 56% · edge +13.4 pts

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Toronto FC averages fewer corners (4.67) than Nashville (7), indicating Nashville's greater attacking pressure and territorial control. Toronto's lower yellow card average (1.33) versus Nashville's (2.33) suggests Nashville plays a more aggressive style, potentially disrupting Toronto's rhythm and creating set-piece opportunities.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Toronto FC

DDWDW

Last 52W 3D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 6D 2L

06 Sep 2026H Chicago Fire4-4

30 Aug 2026H New York City FC1-1

23 Aug 2026A Inter Miami2-1

20 Aug 2026H Charlotte3-3

16 Aug 2026H New England Revolution2-1

Nashville SC

DWWWW

Last 54W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 107W 2D 1L

05 Sep 2026A New York City FC0-0

30 Aug 2026H FC Cincinnati4-0

23 Aug 2026H Columbus Crew3-2

20 Aug 2026A New York Red Bulls1-0

16 Aug 2026H Inter Miami4-1

Market aligned with main pickNashville SC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts

2.25

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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Nashville SC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

Nashville SC has accumulated 13 points recently, showcasing strong momentum and defensive resilience with only 0.6 goals conceded per game. Toronto FC's recent 9 points reflect inconsistency and defensive struggles, conceding 2 goals per match. This form disparity favors Nashville's chances to secure a win in this fixture.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Toronto FC wins

3Draws

5Nashville SC wins

20 Jul 2025Nashville SC v Toronto FC1-0

25 May 2025Toronto FC v Nashville SC1-2

20 Jun 2024Toronto FC v Nashville SC1-2

16 May 2024Nashville SC v Toronto FC2-0

11 Jun 2023Toronto FC v Nashville SC1-1

09 Apr 2023Nashville SC v Toronto FC0-0

Market aligned with main pickNashville SC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

The 10 previous meetings between these teams have averaged 2.8 goals per game, showing a tendency for moderately high-scoring matches. However, Nashville's recent defensive improvements and league form suggest they can contain Toronto's attack better than in past encounters, slightly weakening the historical goal trend as a predictor for this match.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
1	Nashville SC	53	23	16	5	2	30
11	Toronto FC	26	23	5	11	7	-6

Nashville SC leads the MLS standings with 53 points, reflecting consistent high-level performance and strong team cohesion. Toronto FC's 11th place and 26 points highlight their struggles to compete at the top level, indicating a clear class gap that influences the expected match outcome.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Toronto FC Over 2.5

60%Nashville SC Over 2.5

2.8H2H avg goals

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating a moderately open game with goal-scoring opportunities. Nashville's matches have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, while Toronto's is higher at 80%, suggesting a trend towards more goals but with Nashville's defense likely to temper the overall scoring in this encounter.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Toronto FC v Nashville SC Stats

Match Report

Nashville SC to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Toronto FC

Nashville SC

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Football Stats Hub

Toronto FC v Nashville SC Stats

Match Report

Nashville SC to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Toronto FC

Nashville SC

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