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Philadelphia Union crestPhiladelphia Union
v
FC Cincinnati crestFC Cincinnati

Major League Soccer | Thu 10 Sep, 00:45

Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati Stats

Data last updated: Wed 09 Sep 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Philadelphia Union host FC Cincinnati in a Major League Soccer clash where both teams seek crucial points to improve their standings. Philadelphia Union have shown solid attacking form recently, averaging 2.2 goals per game and maintaining a strong home presence. FC Cincinnati, while competitive, have conceded more frequently and face a challenge to contain the Union's dynamic offense. The match promises tactical intensity with Philadelphia aiming to leverage their offensive strengths and home advantage against a Cincinnati side that has struggled defensively in recent fixtures.

BT4Y best bet

Philadelphia Union to Win

  • Philadelphia Union have a 63.2% to win, with a positive of 4.4%.
  • Union average 18 shots per game with 6.67 on target, indicating strong attacking pressure.
  • Cincinnati concede 1.8 goals per game, higher than Philadelphia's 1.2, suggesting defensive vulnerability.
  • Both teams have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, supporting potential for multiple goals.
  • Philadelphia Union rank 9th with 27 points, while Cincinnati sit 6th with 31 points, adding competitive stakes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Philadelphia Union to win based on their superior attacking output, averaging 2.2 goals per match compared to Cincinnati's 1.6, and a more robust defensive record conceding 1.2 goals versus 1.8. Philadelphia's higher shot volume and accuracy underline their offensive threat, while Cincinnati's defensive lapses increase the likelihood of conceding. The positive and level reinforce the pick as a solid choice, though the competitive league positions suggest a contested match.

Model Win Probability63.2%
Strong positive
Goal Scoring Rate2.2 vs 1.6 goals per game
Strong positive
Defensive Record1.2 vs 1.8 goals conceded
Positive
Shot Volume & Accuracy18 shots, 6.67 on target (Union)
Strong positive
Value Edge4.4% positive
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Philadelphia Union's attacking momentum and home advantage position them well to secure victory against FC Cincinnati. Their higher shot volume and better defensive record give them a tactical and statistical edge in this matchup, making a Union win the most plausible outcome.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Philadelphia Union's consistent offensive pressure and defensive solidity create a compelling case for their victory, especially given Cincinnati's defensive vulnerabilities and the Union's home form.”

Key Data Signals

Philadelphia Union to Win evidence

Philadelphia Union have a 63.2% to win, with a positive of 4.4%.

Union average 18 shots per game with 6.67 on target, indicating strong attacking pressure.

Cincinnati concede 1.8 goals per game, higher than Philadelphia's 1.2, suggesting defensive vulnerability.

Both teams have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, supporting potential for multiple goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Philadelphia Union to Win notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored per game is 4, indicating a high-scoring trend.
  • Both teams' recent Over 2.5 Goals rate of 60% aligns with this, suggesting a fast-paced game with multiple goal opportunities, driven by attacking tempo and defensive gaps on both sides.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Philadelphia Union5.67
Avg corners for
FC Cincinnati5
Philadelphia Union10
Avg total corners
FC Cincinnati15
Philadelphia Union3.33
Avg yellow cards
FC Cincinnati2
Philadelphia Union18
Avg shots
FC Cincinnati11
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Philadelphia Union average more shots and slightly more corners than Cincinnati, reflecting territorial control and sustained pressure. The higher yellow card average for Philadelphia suggests a competitive, physical match where fouls and set-piece opportunities could influence the flow and create chances.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Philadelphia Union2.2
Avg goals scored
FC Cincinnati1.6
Philadelphia Union1.2
Avg goals conceded
FC Cincinnati1.8
Philadelphia Union80%
BTTS rate
FC Cincinnati80%
Philadelphia Union60%
Over 2.5 goals
FC Cincinnati60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 71% · edge +4.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 87%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 35%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams have a 60% rate for Over 2.5 Goals and an 80% BTTS rate, indicating a strong likelihood of goals from both sides. Philadelphia's higher scoring average and Cincinnati's defensive concessions support an open game with multiple scoring opportunities, making goals and BTTS trends favorable for an attacking encounter.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 59% · edge +4.4 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The for Philadelphia Union to win reflect a reasonable balance between model probability and market pricing, with a slight positive indicating the price is fair and potentially profitable. The 1.7 align well with the 63.2% , suggesting the market appropriately values the Union's chances without overpricing.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Philadelphia Union

WWDDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
06 Sep 2026H CF Montreal2-0
30 Aug 2026A New York Red Bulls3-1
23 Aug 2026A Austin1-1
20 Aug 2026H Inter Miami2-2
16 Aug 2026A New York City FC3-2

FC Cincinnati

LDWDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
30 Aug 2026A Nashville SC0-4
23 Aug 2026H Seattle Sounders1-1
20 Aug 2026H New York City FC2-1
16 Aug 2026A Orlando City SC1-1
02 Aug 2026H San Jose Earthquakes4-2
Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 59% · edge +4.4 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Philadelphia Union have accumulated 11 points recently, outpacing Cincinnati's 8, reflecting better form and momentum. Their ability to score 2.2 goals per game while conceding only 1.2 demonstrates effective attacking and defensive balance, supporting in their capacity to secure a win in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Philadelphia Union wins
1Draws
6FC Cincinnati wins
31 Aug 2025FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union0-1
02 Mar 2025Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati4-1
07 Feb 2025FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union4-1
20 Oct 2024Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati1-2
14 Aug 2024FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union2-4
20 Jun 2024FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union4-3
Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 59% · edge +4.4 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 4 goals per game, indicating historically open and attacking encounters between Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati. This trend supports expectations of a lively match with goal-scoring chances for both teams, though it does not strongly favor either side's win probability.
Season team stats

Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union23
Played
FC Cincinnati22
Philadelphia Union1.6
Avg goals for
FC Cincinnati2.2
Philadelphia Union1.7
Avg goals against
FC Cincinnati2.3
Philadelphia Union4
Clean sheets
FC Cincinnati2
Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 59% · edge +4.4 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Over the season, Philadelphia Union have maintained a strong attack with 2.2 goals per game and a solid defense conceding 1.2 goals, contrasting with Cincinnati's 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. This statistical profile underscores Philadelphia's superiority in both creating and limiting chances, reinforcing their winning prospects.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6FC Cincinnati3122877-2
9Philadelphia Union27237610-3
Philadelphia Union sit 9th with 27 points, trailing FC Cincinnati who are 6th with 31 points. While Cincinnati hold a higher table position, the points gap is narrow, and Philadelphia's home advantage and recent form suggest they can close this gap with a win, adding competitive significance to the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Philadelphia Union Over 2.5
60%FC Cincinnati Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored per game is 4, indicating a high-scoring trend. Both teams' recent Over 2.5 Goals rate of 60% aligns with this, suggesting a fast-paced game with multiple goal opportunities, driven by attacking tempo and defensive gaps on both sides.

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