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Swansea crestSwansea
v
Burnley crestBurnley

Championship | Sat 12 Sep, 15:00

Swansea v Burnley Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Swansea return home aiming to bounce back from their first league defeat of the season, bringing a strong defensive record at Swansea.com Stadium where they have kept three consecutive clean sheets. Burnley arrive struggling near the bottom of the table but have scored in every Championship match so far, despite defensive frailties that have seen them concede 13 goals in six games. Swansea's possession control and attacking options, including Adam Idah and Zan Vipotnik, face a Burnley defense vulnerable to sustained pressure, setting up a contest where both teams are likely to find the net but Swansea hold the edge for victory.

BT4Y best bet

Swansea to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Swansea have kept three straight home clean sheets but have scored fewer goals at home than away.
  • Burnley have conceded 13 goals in six matches, averaging over two goals against per game.
  • Burnley have scored in all six Championship matches this season, showing consistent attacking threat.
  • Swansea average 11.8 attempts and 5.0 shots on target per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Swansea to Win & Both Teams to Score highly due to Swansea's solid home defensive record combined with their ability to create chances and Burnley's persistent scoring despite defensive weaknesses. The 46.9% significantly exceeds the 25% implied probability from of 4.0, indicating strong value. Swansea's possession control and attacking depth meet Burnley's porous defense, while Burnley's consistent goal scoring justifies the BTTS component. No data limitations reduce in this selection.

Model Chance46.9%
Strong positive
Implied Chance25%
Strong positive
Swansea Home Defense3 clean sheets in 3 home matches
Positive
Burnley Defensive Record13 goals conceded in 6 matches
Positive
Burnley Scoring ConsistencyScored in all 6 matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Swansea's home defensive solidity combined with their possession control gives them a clear advantage over Burnley, whose defensive vulnerabilities are offset by their consistent scoring. This match is likely to see goals at both ends, but Swansea's ability to control the game and create chances makes them the probable winners in this encounter.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goals

“Swansea's blend of defensive resilience and attacking options against Burnley's leaky defense but persistent goal threat creates a compelling case for a home win with goals at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Swansea to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Swansea have kept three straight home clean sheets but have scored fewer goals at home than away.

Burnley have conceded 13 goals in six matches, averaging over two goals against per game.

Burnley have scored in all six Championship matches this season, showing consistent attacking threat.

Swansea average 11.8 attempts and 5.0 shots on target per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Swansea to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.1, indicating a moderately scoring fixture historically.
  • Swansea's 40% Over 2.5 rate contrasts with Burnley's 60%, suggesting a tendency for matches involving Burnley to have more goals, supporting the likelihood of a goal-rich encounter.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Swansea5
Avg corners for
Burnley4.67
Swansea9.4
Avg total corners
Burnley8
Swansea1.6
Avg yellow cards
Burnley2.67
Swansea13.2
Avg shots
Burnley15.33
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 48% · edge +11.2 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Swansea average 5 corners and 13.2 shots per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure, while Burnley average 4.8 corners and 13 shots, showing they can create chances despite defensive issues. Burnley's higher average of 2.6 yellow cards per game versus Swansea's 1.6 suggests a more aggressive approach that could influence match tempo and set-piece opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Swansea1.2
Avg goals scored
Burnley1
Swansea0.6
Avg goals conceded
Burnley2.2
Swansea20%
BTTS rate
Burnley100%
Swansea40%
Over 2.5 goals
Burnley60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have shown contrasting defensive and attacking profiles: Swansea's strong home defense contrasts with Burnley's porous backline, yet Burnley have scored in every match this season. Swansea's average of 1.5 goals per game and Burnley's consistent scoring suggest a match with goals at both ends is plausible, supporting the BTTS aspect of the pick.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSwansea Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Swansea to WinBetUK guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The of 4.0 for Swansea to Win & Both Teams to Score offer strong value compared to the model's 46.9% chance, reflecting in Swansea's home form and Burnley's defensive struggles. The price is attractive given Swansea's ability to control possession and Burnley's consistent scoring, making this a positive value bet without price warnings.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Swansea

LDWWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 1L
08 Sep 2026A Southampton1-3
05 Sep 2026H Wrexham0-0
01 Sep 2026H Watford2-0
29 Aug 2026A Derby3-0
22 Aug 2026H Sheffield Utd0-0

Burnley

DLDLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 3L
08 Sep 2026A Wrexham1-1
05 Sep 2026H Bristol City1-2
02 Sep 2026H Middlesbrough1-1
29 Aug 2026A Norwich1-4
23 Aug 2026A West Brom1-3
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 75% · edge +10.8 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Swansea Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Swansea to WinBetUK guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Swansea have accumulated 8 points recently with a strong defensive record conceding only 0.6 goals per game, while Burnley have struggled with just 2 points and a high concession rate of 2.2 goals per game. Swansea's lower BTTS rate of 20% contrasts with Burnley's 100%, highlighting Burnley's consistent scoring but defensive frailty, reinforcing the bet's rationale.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Swansea wins
0Draws
5Burnley wins
15 Mar 2025Swansea v Burnley0-2
10 Nov 2024Burnley v Swansea1-0
02 Jan 2023Swansea v Burnley1-2
15 Oct 2022Burnley v Swansea4-0
10 Feb 2018Swansea v Burnley1-0
18 Nov 2017Burnley v Swansea2-0
Market aligned with main pickSwansea to WinBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2.1 goals per game, a moderate scoring rate that aligns with the expectation of both teams scoring. While Swansea have home defensive strength, Burnley's consistent scoring in past meetings weakly supports the BTTS component, though recent form and tactical context carry more weight for this fixture.
Season team stats

Championship

Swansea6
Played
Burnley6
Swansea1.3
Avg goals for
Burnley1.2
Swansea0.7
Avg goals against
Burnley2.2
Swansea4
Clean sheets
Burnley0
Market aligned with main pickSwansea Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Swansea to WinBetUK guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Swansea's season stats show a balanced approach with 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, reflecting solid defense and moderate attack. Burnley's stats reveal a leaky defense conceding 2.2 goals per game but a reliable attack scoring 1 goal per game. This contrast supports the expectation of Swansea winning while both teams score.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Swansea1163214
23Burnley36033-6
Swansea sit comfortably in 3rd place with 11 points, reflecting good form and home strength, while Burnley languish in 23rd with 3 points, indicating struggles especially defensively. The standings highlight Swansea's motivation to maintain their position and Burnley's urgency to improve, setting a competitive tone for the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Swansea Over 2.5
60%Burnley Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.1, indicating a moderately scoring fixture historically. Swansea's 40% Over 2.5 rate contrasts with Burnley's 60%, suggesting a tendency for matches involving Burnley to have more goals, supporting the likelihood of a goal-rich encounter.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Swansea v Burnley prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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