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Derby crestDerby
v
Birmingham crestBirmingham

Championship | Sat 12 Sep, 12:30

Derby v Birmingham Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Derby face Birmingham in Championship on Sat 12 Sep, 12:30. This fixture rarely tilts easily: Derby are unbeaten in 11 of their last 13 games against Birmingham, and the reverse meeting finished 1-1 on 26 December 2025, which points to another tight, tense afternoon.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Derby County to Win (6/4) Derby have won three consecutive home matches at Pride Park

  • At 6/4, Derby County to Win (6/4) Derby have won three consecutive home matches at Pride Park implies roughly 40%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 28%.
  • Can Derby's home surge edge Birmingham in a playoff race that is starting to tighten?
  • Birmingham have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Derby.
  • Birmingham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Derby County to Win (6/4) Derby have won three consecutive home matches at Pride Park angle more than a raw.
  • Derby sit 22 in the table, while Birmingham sit 15, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Derby County to Win (6/4) Derby have won three consecutive home matches at Pride Park is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 40% while the model sits nearer 28% (-12.5 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.83.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 28% for Derby County to Win (6/4) Derby have won three consecutive home matches at Pride Park sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price. Birmingham have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Derby. Can Derby's home surge edge Birmingham in a playoff race that is starting to tighten?

Model chance vs price28% model chance against roughly 40% implied
Negative
Birmingham have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Birmingham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Can Derby's home surge edge Birmingham in a playoff.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Derby Win is the preferred angle because can Derby's home surge edge Birmingham in a playoff race that is starting to tighten? Birmingham have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Derby. Birmingham's offside trap and high territorial game bring risk too.

Main risk

Birmingham's offside trap and high territorial game bring risk too.

Key Data Signals

Derby County to Win (6/4) Derby have won three consecutive home matches at Pride Park evidence

Can Derby's home surge edge Birmingham in a playoff race that is starting to tighten?

Birmingham have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Derby.

Birmingham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Derby Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Derby sit 22 in the table, while Birmingham sit 15, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Derby County to Win (6/4) Derby have won three consecutive home matches at Pride Park notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Derby0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Birmingham1.6
    Derby1.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Birmingham1.6
    Derby20%
    BTTS rate
    Birmingham100%
    Derby60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Birmingham80%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 88% vs implied 74% · edge +14.2 pts
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Championship hubDerby v Birmingham predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDerby to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 29% · edge -1.9 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Derby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Derby to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Derby5
    Avg corners for
    Birmingham6.2
    Derby12.25
    Avg total corners
    Birmingham10.4
    Derby3
    Avg yellow cards
    Birmingham2.2
    Derby8.75
    Avg shots
    Birmingham12.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 58% · edge +14 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Derby

    LLWLD
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 4L
    09 Sep 2026H West Brom0-1
    05 Sep 2026A West Ham0-3
    01 Sep 2026A Portsmouth2-0
    29 Aug 2026H Swansea0-3
    22 Aug 2026H Cardiff2-2

    Birmingham

    LDDWD
    Last 51W 3D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 4D 1L
    09 Sep 2026A Norwich1-2
    06 Sep 2026H Wolves2-2
    01 Sep 2026H Southampton1-1
    28 Aug 2026A Wrexham2-1
    22 Aug 2026H Bristol City2-2
    Market aligned with main pickDerby to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 29% · edge -1.9 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Derby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Derby wins
    3Draws
    2Birmingham wins
    21 Mar 2026Derby v Birmingham1-0
    26 Dec 2025Birmingham v Derby1-1
    30 Jan 2022Derby v Birmingham2-2
    10 Sep 2021Birmingham v Derby2-0
    24 Apr 2021Derby v Birmingham1-2
    29 Dec 2020Birmingham v Derby0-4
    Market aligned with main pickDerby to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 29% · edge -1.9 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Derby to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Championship

    Derby6
    Played
    Birmingham6
    Derby0.8
    Avg goals for
    Birmingham1.3
    Derby1.8
    Avg goals against
    Birmingham1.3
    Derby1
    Clean sheets
    Birmingham1
    Market aligned with main pickDerby to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 29% · edge -1.9 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Derby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Season data supports Derby to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    15Birmingham761410
    22Derby46114-6
    Derby sit in position 22, while Birmingham sit in position 15, so table pressure belongs in the Derby County to Win (6/4) Derby have won three consecutive home matches at Pride Park assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Derby Over 2.5
    80%Birmingham Over 2.5
    3.3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Derby sit at 60% and Birmingham sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Derby v Birmingham prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

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