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Sutton Utd crestSutton Utd
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Forest Green crestForest Green

National League | Sat 26 Sep, 15:00

Sutton Utd v Forest Green Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This National League clash features Sutton Utd hosting Forest Green in a contest where Forest Green aims to bounce back after a mixed start to the season. Sutton Utd sits higher in the table but has struggled offensively, averaging just 0.6 goals per game recently, while Forest Green has shown more attacking intent with 1.6 goals per game. The away side's defensive solidity and recent form, including seven points from their last matches, suggest they can challenge Sutton's home advantage and secure a valuable win in this mid-table battle.

BT4Y best bet

Forest Green to Win

  • Forest Green holds a 64.2% to win, indicating strong in an away victory.
  • Sutton Utd's recent scoring rate is low at 0.6 goals per game, limiting their offensive threat.
  • Forest Green averages 1.6 goals per game and concedes fewer goals (1.2) than Sutton Utd (1.8).
  • Over 2.5 goals occurred in 60% of Forest Green's recent matches, showing attacking potential.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.4, suggesting moderately open games between these sides.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Forest Green to win due to their superior recent form, better goal-scoring rate, and more robust defensive record compared to Sutton Utd. The 21.6% at of 2.35 reflects a clear statistical advantage for Forest Green, supported by their ability to score more and concede less. While Sutton Utd ranks higher, their offensive struggles and Forest Green's resilience on the road underpin this confident away win prediction.

Model Win Probability64.2%
Strong positive
Recent Goals For (Forest Green)1.6 per game
Positive
Recent Goals Against (Sutton Utd)1.8 per game
Negative
Value Edge21.6%
Strong positive
Implied Odds vs Model ChanceOdds 2.35 vs 64.2% chance
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Forest Green's recent form and attacking efficiency provide a strong foundation for an away win against a Sutton Utd side that has struggled to find the net. Their defensive stability and ability to capitalize on chances make them the likely victors in this National League encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Forest Green's tactical balance and form

“Forest Green's blend of defensive discipline and improved attacking output makes them a credible threat on the road, especially against a Sutton Utd side that has yet to consistently convert chances this season.”

Key Data Signals

Forest Green to Win evidence

Forest Green holds a 64.2% to win, indicating strong in an away victory.

Sutton Utd's recent scoring rate is low at 0.6 goals per game, limiting their offensive threat.

Forest Green averages 1.6 goals per game and concedes fewer goals (1.2) than Sutton Utd (1.8).

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 60% of Forest Green's recent matches, showing attacking potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Forest Green to Win notes

  • Analysis of the last ten meetings shows an average of 2.4 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests.
  • Forest Green's recent matches feature a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting this fixture could see multiple goals, driven by their attacking approach and Sutton Utd's defensive challenges.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sutton Utd0.6
Avg goals scored
Forest Green1.6
Sutton Utd1.8
Avg goals conceded
Forest Green1.2
Sutton Utd40%
BTTS rate
Forest Green60%
Sutton Utd40%
Over 2.5 goals
Forest Green60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 59% · edge +7.9 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Recent data shows Forest Green's matches have a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals and a 60% BTTS rate, reflecting their attacking style and openness in games. Sutton Utd's lower scoring rate and BTTS at 40% suggest they rely more on defensive solidity, making goals from Forest Green likely to be decisive in this fixture.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sutton Utd

DWLLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 3L
19 Sep 2026A FC Halifax Town1-1
15 Sep 2026H Eastleigh2-1
12 Sep 2026H Scunthorpe0-2
05 Sep 2026A Barrow0-3
31 Aug 2026H Wealdstone0-2

Forest Green

LDWWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 4L
19 Sep 2026H Boston United1-3
15 Sep 2026A Carlisle1-1
12 Sep 2026H Gateshead4-0
05 Sep 2026A AFC Hornchurch1-0
31 Aug 2026H Altrincham1-2
Market aligned with main pickForest Green to WinBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Forest Green Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Forest Green's recent form, accumulating seven points with a stronger goal-scoring record, contrasts with Sutton Utd's four points and lower offensive output. This momentum and advantage for Forest Green underpin their potential to secure an away victory in this National League fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Sutton Utd1695130
14Forest Green139414-1
Despite Sutton Utd's higher league position, the narrow points gap and Forest Green's recent form suggest this match is finely balanced. The standings provide context but do not fully capture Forest Green's upward momentum and tactical improvements, which are critical factors in this matchup.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickForest Green to WinBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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Forest Green Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The for Forest Green to win at 2.35 offer clear value given the model's 64.2% win probability, indicating the market underestimates their chances. This positive suggests backing Forest Green is a sound choice, with price movement higher than the implied chance reinforcing in this selection.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Sutton Utd wins
3Draws
6Forest Green wins
17 Jan 2026Sutton Utd v Forest Green1-1
20 Aug 2025Forest Green v Sutton Utd4-0
11 Mar 2025Forest Green v Sutton Utd2-1
31 Aug 2024Sutton Utd v Forest Green1-2
16 Mar 2024Forest Green v Sutton Utd0-1
02 Sep 2023Sutton Utd v Forest Green0-1
Market aligned with main pickForest Green to WinBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The head-to-head record over ten matches reveals a moderate goal average of 2.4, reflecting competitive encounters. While past meetings offer some insight, current form and tactical setups carry more weight in predicting the outcome, with Forest Green's recent improvements providing a slight edge.
Season team stats

National League

Sutton Utd9
Played
Forest Green9
Sutton Utd1.1
Avg goals for
Forest Green1.4
Sutton Utd1.1
Avg goals against
Forest Green1.6
Sutton Utd3
Clean sheets
Forest Green2
Market aligned with main pickForest Green to WinBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
Forest Green Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Season-long statistics highlight Forest Green's more effective attack and tighter defense compared to Sutton Utd, with a better goals-for and goals-against ratio. These metrics support Forest Green's capability to control the game tempo and convert chances, reinforcing their chances to win away from home.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Sutton Utd Over 2.5
60%Forest Green Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Analysis of the last ten meetings shows an average of 2.4 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. Forest Green's recent matches feature a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting this fixture could see multiple goals, driven by their attacking approach and Sutton Utd's defensive challenges.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.