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Stenhousemuir crestStenhousemuir
v
Motherwell crestMotherwell

League Cup | Sun 16 Aug, 14:00

Stenhousemuir v Motherwell Stats

Data last updated: Sun 27 Sep 2026, 03:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Stenhousemuir face Motherwell in League Cup on Sun 16 Aug, 14:00. Stenhousemuir have already negotiated a full League Cup group campaign, while Motherwell enter the competition after a run of European qualifiers and two Premiership fixtures. Stenhousemuir vs Motherwell: Unbeaten Starts Meet at Ochilview.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2

  • At 13/8, Under 2 implies roughly 38%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 53%.
  • Stenhousemuir have conceded only four goals in their last six matches, giving their unbeaten start a defensive foundation rather than relying solely on scoring.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 53% for Under 2 sits against roughly 38% implied by the current price. Stenhousemuir have conceded only four goals in their last six matches, giving their unbeaten start a defensive foundation rather than relying solely on scoring.

Model chance vs price53% model chance against roughly 38% implied
Strong positive
Stenhousemuir have conceded only four goals in their last.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +15 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because four of Motherwell’s last six matches have stayed under 2.5 goals, matching Stenhousemuir’s four from six. Motherwell’s recent figures are stronger, particularly defensively, but Stenhousemuir’s stability and home record make this a less straightforward assignment than the divisional difference might imply.

Main risk

Motherwell’s recent figures are stronger, particularly defensively, but Stenhousemuir’s stability and home record make this a less straightforward assignment than the divisional difference might imply.

Key Data Signals

Under 2 evidence

Four of Motherwell’s last six matches have stayed under 2.5 goals, matching Stenhousemuir’s four from six.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Stenhousemuir

DDWW
Last 52W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 0L
25 Jul 2026H Livingston0-0
21 Jul 2026A Partick2-2
18 Jul 2026A Brechin2-1
11 Jul 2026H Forfar Athletic2-0

Motherwell

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Motherwell yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Stenhousemuir Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.06
Check odds @ 1.06
Motherwell Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.15
Check odds @ 1.15
Motherwell to WinBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Stenhousemuir to WinBet365 guide price · model 16%
9
Check odds @ 9
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 19%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Stenhousemuir1.5
Avg goals scored
Motherwell-
Stenhousemuir0.75
Avg goals conceded
Motherwell-
Stenhousemuir50%
BTTS rate
Motherwell-
Stenhousemuir50%
Over 2.5 goals
Motherwell-
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 25%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38

Continue the research

Useful next reads

full betting preview for Stenhousemuir v Motherwellfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 51% · edge +7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Stenhousemuir Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Motherwell Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.15
Check odds @ 1.15
Motherwell to WinBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Stenhousemuir to WinBet365 guide price · model 16%
9
Check odds @ 9
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 19%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Stenhousemuir Over 2.5
-Motherwell Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Stenhousemuir have conceded only four goals in their last six matches, giving their unbeaten start a defensive foundation rather than relying solely on scoring.

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