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St. Truiden crestSt. Truiden
v
Union St. Gilloise crestUnion St. Gilloise

Jupiler Pro League | Wed 02 Sep, 19:30

St. Truiden v Union St. Gilloise Stats

Data last updated: Tue 01 Sep 2026, 07:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Truiden host Union St. Gilloise in a Jupiler Pro League clash featuring two sides with contrasting defensive records and attacking intent. Truiden have conceded 1.67 goals per game recently and maintain a high BTTS rate of 100%, while Union St. Gilloise boast a stingy defense allowing just 0.33 goals per game but still average 2.67 goals scored themselves. Both teams have shown a propensity for open play and goal-scoring opportunities, setting up an intriguing contest with potential for multiple goals. The match carries importance for mid-table positioning, adding competitive edge to the encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average 2.67 goals scored per game recently, indicating strong attacking form.
  • Truiden have a 100% BTTS rate, showing they concede regularly at home.
  • Gilloise concede only 0.33 goals per game, but still maintain a 67% Over 2.5 rate.
  • Recent matches for both teams frequently exceed 2.5 goals, supporting an attacking game scenario.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 63.4% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting both teams' attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities. Truiden's high BTTS rate and Union St. Gilloise's offensive efficiency contribute to this outlook. The current of 1.75 offer positive value with a 6.3% edge, making Over 2.5 Goals an attractive selection. The data quality is solid for both teams, ensuring in the attacking and defensive trends driving this prediction.

Recent Goal RatesBoth teams average 2.67 goals scored per game
Strong positive
BTTS RatesSt. Truiden 100%, Union St. Gilloise 33%
Positive
Defensive RecordsSt. Truiden concede 1.67, Union 0.33 goals per game
Neutral
Odds Value Edge6.3% positive value at 1.75 odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with St. Truiden pushing forward aggressively and Union St. Gilloise looking to capitalize on transitions. The attacking talent on both sides and recent scoring trends suggest Over 2.5 Goals is a sound pick, supported by both tactical intent and statistical evidence.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“This fixture features two teams with contrasting defensive styles but shared attacking ambition, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical call given their recent scoring patterns and offensive players' involvement.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average 2.67 goals scored per game recently, indicating strong attacking form.

Truiden have a 100% BTTS rate, showing they concede regularly at home.

Gilloise concede only 0.33 goals per game, but still maintain a 67% Over 2.5 rate.

Recent matches for both teams frequently exceed 2.5 goals, supporting an attacking game scenario.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, aligning closely with the Over 2.5 Goals market.
  • This trend over a meaningful sample highlights a history of open, goal-rich encounters, reinforcing the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

St. Truiden2.67
Avg goals scored
Union St. Gilloise2.67
St. Truiden1.67
Avg goals conceded
Union St. Gilloise0.33
St. Truiden100%
BTTS rate
Union St. Gilloise33%
St. Truiden67%
Over 2.5 goals
Union St. Gilloise67%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 57% · edge +6.3 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 81%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Truiden's perfect BTTS rate of 100% contrasts with Union St. Gilloise's 33%, reflecting differing defensive solidity. Both teams average 2.67 goals scored recently, supporting a high-scoring game. This mix suggests goals will come but possibly more from St. Truiden's side, aligning well with Over 2.5 Goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 57% · edge +6.3 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Union St. Gilloise Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Union St. Gilloise to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
St. Truiden Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
St. Truiden to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.75 with a of 63.4%, indicating positive value. This suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of multiple goals, supported by both teams' recent scoring and conceding patterns. The offer a good entry point without requiring caution on price sensitivity.

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

St. Truiden3.33
Avg corners for
Union St. Gilloise6
St. Truiden9.33
Avg total corners
Union St. Gilloise9.33
St. Truiden2.33
Avg yellow cards
Union St. Gilloise2
St. Truiden21.33
Avg shots
Union St. Gilloise14.33
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 51% · edge +0.4 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
3
Check odds @ 3
Truiden average 3.33 corners and 21.33 shots per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure, while Union St. Gilloise average 6 corners and 14.33 shots, showing balanced offensive threat. Both teams have moderate card counts, suggesting open play with manageable fouling, conducive to goal opportunities through set pieces and open play.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

St. Truiden

WDD
Last 51W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 0L
30 Aug 2026A Antwerp4-1
14 Aug 2026A Cercle Brugge3-3
08 Aug 2026H Lommel United1-1

Union St. Gilloise

WDW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
30 Aug 2026H Anderlecht3-0
15 Aug 2026H Zulte Waregem0-0
08 Aug 2026A KVC Westerlo5-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 82% vs implied 78% · edge +3.4 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Load more odds for this section
Union St. Gilloise Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Union St. Gilloise to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
St. Truiden Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
St. Truiden to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Recent form shows both teams scoring frequently, with St. Truiden conceding more, leading to a 67% Over 2.5 Goals rate for each side. Truiden's 5 points and Union's 7 points reflect competitive momentum, with attacking output driving match excitement and goal potential.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1St. Truiden wins
2Draws
7Union St. Gilloise wins
02 May 2026St. Truiden v Union St. Gilloise2-1
04 Apr 2026Union St. Gilloise v St. Truiden1-0
22 Mar 2026St. Truiden v Union St. Gilloise1-3
26 Oct 2025Union St. Gilloise v St. Truiden2-0
02 Feb 2025Union St. Gilloise v St. Truiden2-1
25 Aug 2024St. Truiden v Union St. Gilloise0-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 57% · edge +6.3 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Union St. Gilloise to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
St. Truiden to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The head-to-head record over 10 matches shows an average of 2.5 goals per game, indicating a balanced history of scoring. While not overwhelmingly high, this average supports the possibility of Over 2.5 Goals, especially given current attacking form and tactical setups.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Jupiler Pro League

St. Truiden3
Played
Union St. Gilloise4
St. Truiden2.7
Avg goals for
Union St. Gilloise2.8
St. Truiden1.7
Avg goals against
Union St. Gilloise0.3
St. Truiden0
Clean sheets
Union St. Gilloise3
Best odds for this sectionUnion St. Gilloise Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 66% · edge -0.8 pts
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Load more odds for this section
Union St. Gilloise to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
St. Truiden Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
St. Truiden to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Season-long data confirms both teams maintain high scoring averages around 2.67 goals per game, with St. Truiden conceding more than Union St. This attacking emphasis and defensive disparity underpin the likelihood of a high-scoring fixture consistent with Over 2.5 Goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Union St. Gilloise10431010
10St. Truiden541210
Truiden sit 10th and Union St. Gilloise 6th in the league, both mid-table with close points. While standings suggest moderate pressure, the focus remains on offensive performance and goal production rather than defensive caution, supporting an open game with multiple goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%St. Truiden Over 2.5
67%Union St. Gilloise Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, aligning closely with the Over 2.5 Goals market. This trend over a meaningful sample highlights a history of open, goal-rich encounters, reinforcing the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture.

Related football research

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Prediction context

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