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Sporting CP crestSporting CP
v
Alverca crestAlverca

Primeira Liga | Sat 22 Aug, 20:30

Sporting CP v Alverca Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sporting CP hosts Alverca in a Primeira Liga clash where attacking intent and recent goal trends set the stage for an open encounter. Sporting CP has shown a potent offensive output with a perfect over 2.5 goals record so far, while Alverca's matches have been more mixed but still capable of producing goals. Both teams have conceded twice per game on average, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities. The fixture promises tactical openness with Sporting CP aiming to assert control and Alverca seeking to exploit chances on the counter, making goal-scoring opportunities likely throughout the match.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Sporting CP has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season, indicating consistent high-scoring games.
  • Alverca's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 50% of their outings, showing moderate goal involvement.
  • The last four head-to-head meetings averaged 3.75 goals, supporting a high-scoring trend.
  • Sporting CP averages 10 shots and 5.5 shots on target per game, reflecting attacking pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals with a 57.9% chance, reflecting Sporting CP's strong offensive form and the historically high-scoring nature of encounters with Alverca. Sporting CP's perfect over 2.5 goals rate and Alverca's openness in defense combine to create a scenario conducive to multiple goals. The price offers positive value with a 10.3% edge, supported by solid shot volumes and goal threat metrics. No data limitations affect , making this a well-founded selection for those seeking a high-scoring match.

Model Chance57.9%
Strong positive
Implied Chance47.6%
Strong positive
Value Edge10.3%
Strong positive
Sporting CP Over 2.5 Rate100%
Strong positive
H2H Average Goals3.75 goals
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect Sporting CP to leverage their attacking momentum and home advantage to create numerous scoring chances against Alverca, whose defensive record suggests vulnerability. The data-driven outlook points to a lively match with multiple goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice based on form and fixture dynamics.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical matchup

“Sporting CP's offensive firepower combined with Alverca's defensive frailties sets the stage for a high-scoring game. The statistical trends and recent performances strongly indicate multiple goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a smart tactical and data-backed selection.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Sporting CP has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season, indicating consistent high-scoring games.

Alverca's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 50% of their outings, showing moderate goal involvement.

The last four head-to-head meetings averaged 3.75 goals, supporting a high-scoring trend.

Sporting CP averages 10 shots and 5.5 shots on target per game, reflecting attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 3.75, indicating a trend toward high-scoring encounters.
  • This recent sample suggests a fast tempo and attacking openness, with both teams contributing to goal opportunities, making Over 2.5 Goals a consistent trend to watch in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sporting CP4.5
Avg corners for
Alverca5.5
Sporting CP7.5
Avg total corners
Alverca9
Sporting CP3
Avg yellow cards
Alverca3
Sporting CP10
Avg shots
Alverca14.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Shot data reveals Sporting CP averages 10 shots and 5.5 on target per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure. Alverca's higher average of 14.5 shots suggests they also create chances, likely leading to a competitive exchange of corners and fouls. Both teams average three yellow cards, reflecting moderate disciplinary activity that could influence match tempo.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sporting CP2.5
Avg goals scored
Alverca1
Sporting CP2
Avg goals conceded
Alverca2
Sporting CP100%
BTTS rate
Alverca50%
Sporting CP100%
Over 2.5 goals
Alverca50%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10.3 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have shown tendencies toward goal involvement, with Sporting CP scoring 2.5 goals per game and Alverca contributing to matches with a 50% over 2.5 rate. The head-to-head average of 3.75 goals further supports the expectation of multiple goals and potential BTTS scenarios in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Alverca Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Alverca to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
12
Check odds @ 12
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
Sporting CP Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Sporting CP to WinBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced attractively with a 2.1 odd, reflecting a 47.6% implied chance, which is notably lower than the model's 57.9% probability. This positive of 10.3% suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, making this a price-sensitive opportunity worth considering.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sporting CP

WD
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
14 Aug 2026H Vitória SC3-2
08 Aug 2026A Estrela2-2

Alverca

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
15 Aug 2026H Estrela2-2
09 Aug 2026A FC Porto0-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
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Alverca Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.05
Check odds @ 1.05
Alverca to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
12
Check odds @ 12
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
Sporting CP Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Sporting CP to WinBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Sporting CP's recent form is characterized by a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, scoring an average of 2.5 goals per game while conceding 2. Alverca's form is less prolific but still shows a 50% over 2.5 rate with similar goals conceded. This contrast highlights Sporting's attacking control and Alverca's susceptibility, supporting a high-scoring outlook.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Sporting CP wins
0Draws
1Alverca wins
22 Mar 2026Alverca v Sporting CP1-4
31 Oct 2025Sporting CP v Alverca2-0
28 Oct 2025Sporting CP v Alverca5-1
17 Oct 2019Alverca v Sporting CP2-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Alverca to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
12
Check odds @ 12
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
Sporting CP to WinBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
The four previous meetings between Sporting CP and Alverca have produced an average of 3.75 goals per game, demonstrating a history of open, attacking matches. This trend supports the expectation for multiple goals and aligns well with the current form and tactical outlook for both teams.
Season team stats

Primeira Liga

Sporting CP2
Played
Alverca2
Sporting CP2.5
Avg goals for
Alverca1
Sporting CP2
Avg goals against
Alverca2
Sporting CP0
Clean sheets
Alverca0
Best odds for this sectionAlverca Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 31% vs implied 16% · edge +15 pts
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Load more odds for this section
Alverca to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
12
Check odds @ 12
Sporting CP Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Sporting CP to WinBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Sporting CP's season statistics reveal a strong offensive profile with high shot volumes and goal scoring, while conceding goals at a rate that suggests defensive openness. Alverca's stats show a balanced but less potent attack and a defense that concedes regularly, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple goals in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Sporting CP732103
16Alverca13012-4
Sporting CP sits 7th with 4 points, aiming to climb the table with a strong home performance, while Alverca is 14th with 1 point, likely to adopt a more open approach to chase points. The standings context suggests Sporting CP will push forward aggressively, increasing goal-scoring chances and match tempo.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Sporting CP Over 2.5
50%Alverca Over 2.5
3.75H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 3.75, indicating a trend toward high-scoring encounters. This recent sample suggests a fast tempo and attacking openness, with both teams contributing to goal opportunities, making Over 2.5 Goals a consistent trend to watch in this fixture.

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